Graphical and numerical diagnostic tools to assess suitability of multiple imputations and imputation models

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/122409/1/sim6926_am.pdfhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/122409/2/sim6926.pd

The UK quality and outcomes framework pay-for-performance scheme and spirometry: rewarding quality or just quantity? A cross-sectional study in Rotherham, UK

Background: Accurate spirometry is important in the management of COPD. The UK Quality and Outcomes Framework pay-for-performance scheme for general practitioners includes spirometry related indicators within its COPD domain. It is not known whether high achievement against QOF spirometry indicators is associated with spirometry to BTS standards. Methods: Data were obtained from the records of 3,217 patients randomly sampled from 5,649 patients with COPD in 38 general practices in Rotherham, UK. Severity of airflow obstruction was categorised by FEV1 (% predicted) according to NICE guidelines. This was compared with clinician recorded COPD severity. The proportion of patients whose spirometry met BTS standards was calculated in each practice using a random sub-sample of 761 patients. The Spearman rank correlation between practice level QOF spirometry achievement and performance against BTS spirometry standards was calculated. Results: Spirometry as assessed by clinical records was to BTS standards in 31% of cases (range at practice level 0% to 74%). The categorisation of airflow obstruction according to the most recent spirometry results did not agree well with the clinical categorisation of COPD recorded in the notes (Cohen's kappa = 0.34, 0.30 - 0.38). 12% of patients on COPD registers had FEV1 (% predicted) results recorded that did not support the diagnosis of COPD. There was no association between quality, as measured by adherence to BTS spirometry standards, and either QOF COPD9 achievement (Spearman's rho = -0.11), or QOF COPD10 achievement (rho = 0.01). Conclusion: The UK Quality and Outcomes Framework currently assesses the quantity, but not the quality of spirometry

An accurate test for homogeneity of odds ratios based on Cochran's Q-statistic

Background: A frequently used statistic for testing homogeneity in a meta-analysis of K independent studies is Cochran's Q. For a standard test of homogeneity the Q statistic is referred to a chi-square distribution with K - 1 degrees of freedom. For the situation in which the effects of the studies are logarithms of odds ratios, the chi-square distribution is much too conservative for moderate size studies, although it may be asymptotically correct as the individual studies become large. Methods: Using a mixture of theoretical results and simulations, we provide formulas to estimate the shape and scale parameters of a gamma distribution to t the distribution of Q. Results: Simulation studies show that the gamma distribution is a good approximation to the distribution for Q. Conclusions: : Use of the gamma distribution instead of the chi-square distribution for Q should eliminate inaccurate inferences in assessing homogeneity in a meta-analysis. (A computer program for implementing this test is provided.) This hypothesis test is competitive with the Breslow-Day test both in accuracy of level and in power

Developing Cost-Effective Inspection Sampling Plans for Energy-Efficiency Programs at Southern California Edison

This paper summarizes the results of the development and implementation of a decision model for a major California utility company. The company’s program managers use the model to select the most cost-effective sampling inspection plan for managing a portfolio of energy-efficiency programs. The decision model can be used to evaluate the performance of possible sampling strategies based on historical data. We illustrate the application of our decision model to a specific program. We further highlight several key implementation success factors and discuss the benefits that the utility company accrued from using the decision model

Field sampling of cork value before extraction in Portuguese "montados"

The assessment of cork quality and the estimation of cork value are very important to forest landowners, for management purposes and for cork commercialisation. The Forest Producers Associations have been using a sampling scheme with the objective of estimating cork value (price per unit of weight, usually kg) before extraction, based on the sampling of individual trees along a zigzag transect that covers the entire stand. The sampling error is usually too high, but, from a practical standpoint, it is difficult to increase the sampling intensity if it would imply an increase in sampling costs. The aim of this work was to propose, from data collected in six stands representative of the cork oak stands in Portugal, an alternative sampling methodology with a more efficient precision/ cost ratio. Precision and costs of alternative sampling designs based on clusters of different sizes, complemented with analysis of the intracluster correlation coefficient, were studied in order to propose the most adequate sampling strategy. Single-stage cluster sampling with clusters of 5–7 trees guarantees a reasonable sampling error (10–15%) and can be conducted without a large increase in cos

Country differences in the diagnosis and management of coronary heart disease : a comparison between the US, the UK and Germany

Background The way patients with coronary heart disease (CHD) are treated is partly determined by non-medical factors. There is a solid body of evidence that patient and physician characteristics influence doctors' management decisions. Relatively little is known about the role of structural issues in the decision making process. This study focuses on the question whether doctors' diagnostic and therapeutic decisions are influenced by the health care system in which they take place. This non-medical determinant of medical decision-making was investigated in an international research project in the US, the UK and Germany. Methods Videotaped patients within an experimental study design were used. Experienced actors played the role of patients with symptoms of CHD. Several alternative versions were taped featuring the same script with patients of different sex, age and social status. The videotapes were shown to 384 randomly selected primary care physicians in the three countries under study. The sample was stratified on gender and duration of professional experience. Physicians were asked how they would diagnose and manage the patient after watching the video vignette using a questionnaire with standardised and open-ended questions. Results Results show only small differences in decision making between British and American physicians in essential aspects of care. About 90% of the UK and US doctors identified CHD as one of the possible diagnoses. Further similarities were found in test ordering and lifestyle advice. Some differences between the US and UK were found in the certainty of the diagnoses, prescribed medications and referral behaviour. There are numerous significant differences between Germany and the other two countries. German physicians would ask fewer questions, they would order fewer tests, prescribe fewer medications and give less lifestyle advice. Conclusion Although all physicians in the three countries under study were presented exactly the same patient, some disparities in the diagnostic and patient management decisions were evident. Since other possible influences on doctors treatment decisions are controlled within the experimental design, characteristics of the health care system seem to be a crucial factor within the decision making process

A Compromise between Neutrino Masses and Collider Signatures in the Type-II Seesaw Model

A natural extension of the standard $SU(2)_{\rm L} \times U(1)_{\rm Y}$ gauge model to accommodate massive neutrinos is to introduce one Higgs triplet and three right-handed Majorana neutrinos, leading to a $6\times 6$ neutrino mass matrix which contains three $3\times 3$ sub-matrices $M_{\rm L}$, $M_{\rm D}$ and $M_{\rm R}$. We show that three light Majorana neutrinos (i.e., the mass eigenstates of $\nu_e$, $\nu_\mu$ and $\nu_\tau$) are exactly massless in this model, if and only if $M_{\rm L} = M_{\rm D} M_{\rm R}^{-1} M_{\rm D}^T$ exactly holds. This no-go theorem implies that small but non-vanishing neutrino masses may result from a significant but incomplete cancellation between $M_{\rm L}$ and $M_{\rm D} M_{\rm R}^{-1} M_{\rm D}^T$ terms in the Type-II seesaw formula, provided three right-handed Majorana neutrinos are of ${\cal O}(1)$ TeV and experimentally detectable at the LHC. We propose three simple Type-II seesaw scenarios with the $A_4 \times U(1)_{\rm X}$ flavor symmetry to interpret the observed neutrino mass spectrum and neutrino mixing pattern. Such a TeV-scale neutrino model can be tested in two complementary ways: (1) searching for possible collider signatures of lepton number violation induced by the right-handed Majorana neutrinos and doubly-charged Higgs particles; and (2) searching for possible consequences of unitarity violation of the $3\times 3$ neutrino mixing matrix in the future long-baseline neutrino oscillation experiments.Comment: RevTeX 19 pages, no figure

Efficient and exact sampling of simple graphs with given arbitrary degree sequence

Uniform sampling from graphical realizations of a given degree sequence is a fundamental component in simulation-based measurements of network observables, with applications ranging from epidemics, through social networks to Internet modeling. Existing graph sampling methods are either link-swap based (Markov-Chain Monte Carlo algorithms) or stub-matching based (the Configuration Model). Both types are ill-controlled, with typically unknown mixing times for link-swap methods and uncontrolled rejections for the Configuration Model. Here we propose an efficient, polynomial time algorithm that generates statistically independent graph samples with a given, arbitrary, degree sequence. The algorithm provides a weight associated with each sample, allowing the observable to be measured either uniformly over the graph ensemble, or, alternatively, with a desired distribution. Unlike other algorithms, this method always produces a sample, without back-tracking or rejections. Using a central limit theorem-based reasoning, we argue, that for large N, and for degree sequences admitting many realizations, the sample weights are expected to have a lognormal distribution. As examples, we apply our algorithm to generate networks with degree sequences drawn from power-law distributions and from binomial distributions.Comment: 8 pages, 3 figure

Sampling in health geography: reconciling geographical objectives and probabilistic methods. An example of a health survey in Vientiane (Lao PDR)

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Geographical objectives and probabilistic methods are difficult to reconcile in a unique health survey. Probabilistic methods focus on individuals to provide estimates of a variable's prevalence with a certain precision, while geographical approaches emphasise the selection of specific areas to study interactions between spatial characteristics and health outcomes. A sample selected from a small number of specific areas creates statistical challenges: the observations are not independent at the local level, and this results in poor statistical validity at the global level. Therefore, it is difficult to construct a sample that is appropriate for both geographical and probability methods.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We used a two-stage selection procedure with a first non-random stage of selection of clusters. Instead of randomly selecting clusters, we deliberately chose a group of clusters, which as a whole would contain all the variation in health measures in the population. As there was no health information available before the survey, we selected <it>a priori </it>determinants that can influence the spatial homogeneity of the health characteristics. This method yields a distribution of variables in the sample that closely resembles that in the overall population, something that cannot be guaranteed with randomly-selected clusters, especially if the number of selected clusters is small. In this way, we were able to survey specific areas while minimising design effects and maximising statistical precision.</p> <p>Application</p> <p>We applied this strategy in a health survey carried out in Vientiane, Lao People's Democratic Republic. We selected well-known health determinants with unequal spatial distribution within the city: nationality and literacy. We deliberately selected a combination of clusters whose distribution of nationality and literacy is similar to the distribution in the general population.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>This paper describes the conceptual reasoning behind the construction of the survey sample and shows that it can be advantageous to choose clusters using reasoned hypotheses, based on both probability and geographical approaches, in contrast to a conventional, random cluster selection strategy.</p