F.: An evaluation of a high-resolution hydrometeorological modeling system for prediction of a coolseason flood event in a coastal mountainous watershed

ABSTRACT This study used the atmospheric Fifth-Generation Pennsylvania State University-National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5) and the University of Washington Distributed Hydrology-SoilVegetation Model (DHSVM) for the simulation of a complex rain-on-snow flood event that occurred from 28 December 1996 to 3 January 1997 on the 1560-km 2 Snoqualmie River watershed in western Washington. Three control simulations were created with MM5 applied at 36-, 12-, and 4-km horizontal spacing and DHSVM at a horizontal spacing of 100 m. Results showed that the accuracy of the atmospheric fields increased with higher horizontal resolution, although underforecasting of precipitation was evident for all three resolutions. Simulated river flows captured 67% (36 km), 75% (12 km), and 72% (4 km) of the total flow and 52% (36 km), 58% (12 km), and 62% (4 km) of the event peak flow. Several sensitivity simulations of the modeling system (4-km spacing only) were conducted to improve on the control simulations. Adjusting the MM5 precipitation using observations led to a streamflow forecast that captured 90% of the total flow. Reduction of the model high-wind speed bias improved the simulated snowmelt, although the resulting effects on streamflow were relatively small. A sensitivity experiment that included the precipitation from an intense rainband that was not captured by MM5 revealed the importance of this highintensity, short-lived feature; simulated streamflow from this experiment captured 93% of the total flow and over 82% of the peak flow, with a 4-h timing error. A final set of sensitivity simulations, using both a higher-and lower-elevation observation as the sole forcing of DHSVM (no MM5), revealed strong sensitivity to the observation location; using a slightly displaced (ϳ8 km) lower-elevation observation produced river flows that differed by over 18%. Both of the resulting simulated river flows forced by the two-station method were significantly lower than both the observed flows (35% and 53% of total observed flow) and the flows simulated with the MM5 input fields. A major cause of this low flow was that the temperatures at the observation locations were located in gap regions of the Cascade Mountains, were not representative of the basin-average temperature, and therefore caused too much precipitation to fall as snow

Calibrated probabilistic forecasting at the Stateline wind energy center: The regime-switching space-time (RST) method

With the global proliferation of wind power, accurate short-term forecasts of wind resources at wind energy sites are becoming paramount. Regime-switching space-time (RST) models merge meteorological and statistical expertise to obtain accurate and calibrated, fully probabilistic forecasts of wind speed and wind power. The model formulation is parsimonious, yet takes account of all the salient features of wind speed: alternating atmospheric regimes, temporal and spatial correlation, diurnal and seasonal non-stationarity, conditional heteroscedasticity, and non-Gaussianity. The RST method identifies forecast regimes at the wind energy site and fits a conditional predictive model for each regime. Geographically dispersed meteorological observations in the vicinity of the wind farm are used as off-site predictors. The RST technique was applied to 2-hour ahead forecasts of hourly average wind speed at the Stateline wind farm in the US Pacific Northwest. In July 2003, for instance, the RST forecasts had root-mean-square error (RMSE) 28.6 % less than the persistence forecasts. For each month in the test period, the RST forecasts had lower RMSE than forecasts using state-of-the-art vector time series techniques. The RST method provides probabilistic forecasts in the form o

Isometric Shoulder Strength Reference Values for Physically Active Collegiate Males and Females

Background: It is common clinical practice to assess muscle strength during examination of patients following shoulder injury or surgery. Strength comparisons are often made between the patient\u27s injured and uninjured shoulders, with the uninjured side used as a reference without regard to upper extremity dominance. Despite the importance of strength measurements, little is known about expected normal baselines of the uninjured shoulder. The purpose of this study was to report normative values for isometric shoulder strength for physically active college-age men and women without history of shoulder injury. Methods: University students-546 males (18.8 ± 1.0 years, 75.3 ± 12.2 kg) and 73 females (18.7 ± 0.9 years, 62.6 ± 7.0 kg)-underwent thorough shoulder evaluations by an orthopaedic surgeon and completed bilateral isometric strength measurements with a handheld dynamometer. Variables measured included internal rotation, external rotation, abduction, supine internal rotation and external rotation at 45°, and prone flexion (lower trapezius). Results: Significant differences were found between the dominant and nondominant shoulder for internal rotation, internal rotation at 45°, abduction, and prone flexion in males and in internal rotation at 45° and prone flexion for females (P = 0.01). © 2013 The Author(s)

Increased Glenoid Retroversion Is Associated With Increased Rotator Cuff Strength in the Shoulder.

BACKGROUND: The rotator cuff muscles are critical secondary stabilizers in the shoulder. Increased glenoid retroversion and rotator cuff strength have been associated with the risk of posterior shoulder instability; however, the effect of increased glenoid retroversion on rotator cuff strength remains unclear. PURPOSE/HYPOTHESIS: The purpose was to examine the association between glenoid version and rotator cuff strength in the shoulder in a young and healthy population with no history of shoulder instability. The hypothesis was that increased glenoid retroversion would be associated with increases in rotator cuff muscle strength. STUDY DESIGN: Cross-sectional study; Level of evidence, 3. METHODS: A prospective cohort study was conducted over a 4-year period within a high-risk population to identify the risk factors for shoulder instability. Analyzed participants included 574 freshmen entering a United States service academy. Baseline data collected upon entry into the study included magnetic resonance imaging measurements of glenoid version. Rotator cuff strength was also assessed at baseline using a handheld dynamometer. Internal and external rotation strength were assessed with the glenohumeral joint positioned in neutral and in 45° of abduction. The current study represents an analysis of the baseline data from this cohort. RESULTS: The mean age, height, and weight of participants was 18.77 ± 0.97 years, 176.81 ± 8.48 cm, and 73.80 ± 12.45 kg, respectively. The mean glenoid version at baseline was 7.79°± 4.85° of retroversion. Univariate linear regression analyses demonstrated that increased glenoid retroversion was associated with increased internal and external rotation strength of the rotator cuff in neutral and 45° of abduction ( CONCLUSION: The results of this study demonstrate that as glenoid retroversion increases, internal and external rotation strength of the rotator cuff also increase in a young and healthy athletic population. These compensatory changes may contribute to increased glenohumeral dynamic stability in the presence of worse static stability with increasing retroversion