The past, present, and future of demography and the role of the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research

Demography, within the memories of those now living,has been shaped by a few outstanding centers,the Institut National d'Etudes Demographiques,the Cambridge Group for the History of Population and Social Structure, and the Princeton Office of Population Research. The Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, whose new building received a festive dedication on 31 March 2003, now joins this distinguished family.Ansley Coale, below replacement fertility, biodemography, longevity, Louis Henry, Max Planck Institute, Peter Laslett, prediction

Tempo and its Tribulations

Bongaarts and Feeney offer alternatives to period life expectancy with a set of demographic measures equivalent to each other under a Proportionality Assumption. Under this assumption, we show that the measures are given by exponentially weighted moving averages of earlier values of period life expectancy. They are indices of mortality conditions in the recent past. The period life expectancy is an index of current mortality conditions. The difference is a difference between past and present, not a ``tempo distortion'' in the present. In contrast, the Bongaarts-Feeney tempo-adjusted Total Fertility Rate is a measure of current fertility conditions, which can be understood in terms of a process of birth-age standardization.demographic translation, life expectancy, standardization, tempo, TFR

Biodemography comes of Age

Biodemography has emerged and grown over the last fifteen years, with loyal and farsighted support from its patrons. As it enters what might be called its adolescence as a field, it faces challenges along with abounding opportunities. One challenge is to continue to generate knowledge that contributes to human health and well-being. A second is to insist on high standards of quality control within its cross-disciplinary environment. Opportunities appear in a variety of directions, including mathematical modeling, genomic analyses, and field studies of aging in the wild.aging in the wild, biodemography, evolutionary demography, longevity

Estimating the Covariates of Historical Heights

Data on human height can provide an index that may measure more accurately changes in the standard of living than the more conventional real wage index. Height data, like those on real wages, are relatively abundant and extend back to the seventeenth century. In a previous paper, we developed and tested procedures for estimating the mean and standard deviation of the distribution of human height when the sample is distorted to an unknown extent by missing observations at lower heights. The purpose of this analysis is to extend our techniques so that the covariates of height can be estimated. Such an extension is necessary when trying to draw inferences about the causes of shifts over time in the height distribution so that changes in sample composition can be controlled.

A generalized model of mutation-selection balance with applications to aging

A probability model is presented for the dynamics of mutation-selection balance in a haploid infinite-population infinite-sites setting sufficiently general to cover mutation-driven changes in full age-specific demographic schedules. The model accommodates epistatic as well as additive selective costs. Closed form characterizations are obtained for solutions in finite time, along with proofs of convergence to stationary distributions and a proof of the uniqueness of solutions in a restricted case. Examples are given of applications to the biodemography of aging, including instabilities in current formulations of mutation accumulation.Comment: 20 pages Updated to include more historical comment and references to the literature, as well as to make clear how our non-linear, non-Markovian model differs from previous linear, Markovian particle system and measure-valued diffusion models. Further updated to take into account referee's comment

The Physical State of the British Working Class, 1870-1914: Evidence from Army Recruits

It is easier to discover why people died in the past than how healthy they were during their lives. However, in both Europe and North America, much evidence survives about the health of young males from the medical examination of recruits to the armed forces. The paper discusses the possibility of generalizing from one such source, that of British volunteer recruits, to the health of the male working class. It concludes that the source is not seriously biassed and that, after some statistical correction, the data suggest a gradual improvement in the nutritional status, measured by average height, of the British working class.This finding contradicts much contemporary opinion that the British were physically deteriorating in the late nineteenth century.

The Age-Specific Force of Natural Selection and Walls of Death

W. D. Hamilton's celebrated formula for the age-specific force of natural selection furnishes predictions for senescent mortality due to mutation accumulation, at the price of reliance on a linear approximation. Applying to Hamilton's setting the full non-linear demographic model for mutation accumulation of Evans et al. (2007), we find surprising differences. Non-linear interactions cause the collapse of Hamilton-style predictions in the most commonly studied case, refine predictions in other cases, and allow Walls of Death at ages before the end of reproduction. Haldane's Principle for genetic load has an exact but unfamiliar generalization.Comment: 27 page

Metrology and Calibration

The purpose of this NASA Technical Standard is to ensure the accuracy of measurements affecting safety and mission success through the proper selection, calibration, and use of Measuring and Test Equipment (MTE)

Making the most of by-catch data : assessing the feasibility of utilising non-target camera trap data for occupancy modelling of a large felid

Camera traps are an increasingly used tool in ecology, having the ability to capture large numbers of photographic records in short survey periods. For many surveys, the number of non‐target records outweighs those of focal species, making them a potentially rich and often under‐utilised data source. Occupancy analysis of non‐target data represents a potential way to optimise survey output, whilst increasing “return on investment.” This study assessed the feasibility of using non‐target data from a Hartmann's mountain zebra Equus zebra hartmannae survey in Gondwana Canyon Park, southern Namibia, for occupancy analysis on leopard Panthera pardus. Using a survey design with 15 camera traps at water sources, 26 leopard events were detected over 72 days. Model fit was adequate and produced a model‐averaged occupancy of 0.64 (SE 0.36) and a detection probability of 0.24 (SE 0.07). Whilst there was a lack of precision in the final occupancy estimate, the study provided valuable pilot data for future surveys. The results highlight the ability of camera traps to obtain information‐rich datasets, which, when properly archived, can be used for providing information on a number of ecological topics, ranging far beyond that which the traps were originally deployed for.The Rufford Foundation, United Kingdom, the Whitley Fund for Nature, United Kingdom, and Parc Zoologique de Montpellier, France, funded the Mountain Zebra Project. Sarah Edwards received a post‐doctoral bursary from the University of Pretoria, South Africa.http://wileyonlinelibrary.com/journal/aje2019-12-01hj2018Centre for Wildlife Managemen