31 research outputs found
Aperiodicity in one-way Markov cycles and repeat times of large earthquakes in faults
A common use of Markov Chains is the simulation of the seismic cycle in a
fault, i.e. as a renewal model for the repetition of its characteristic
earthquakes. This representation is consistent with Reid's elastic rebound
theory. Here it is proved that in {\it any} one-way Markov cycle, the
aperiodicity of the corresponding distribution of cycle lengths is always lower
than one. This fact concurs with observations of large earthquakes in faults
all over the world