On the beliefs off the path: equilibrium refinement due to quantal response and level-k

This paper studies the relevance of equilibrium and nonequilibrium explanations of behavior, with respects to equilibrium refinement, as players gain experience. We investigate this experimentally using an incomplete information sequential move game with heterogeneous preferences and multiple perfect equilibria. Only the limit point of quantal response (the limiting logit equilibrium), and alternatively that of level-k reasoning (extensive form rationalizability), restricts beliefs off the equilibrium path. Both concepts converge to the same unique equilibrium, but the predictions differ prior to convergence. We show that with experience of repeated play in relatively constant environments, subjects approach equilibrium via the quantal response learning path. With experience spanning also across relatively novel environments, though, level-k reasoning tends to dominate

Vendettas

Vendettas occur in many real world settings where rivals compete for a prize, e.g., winning an election or a competitive promotion, by engaging in retaliatory aggressive behavior. We present a benchmark experiment where two players have an initial probability of winning a prize. Retaliatory vendettas occur and lead agents to the worst possible outcomes in 60% to 80% of cases, counter to self interest predictions, and regardless of whether initial winning probabilities are equal or unequal. Negative emotions are important and interact with economic settings to produce large social inefficiencies. Venting emotions predicts aggression but also reduces it

A Precise Determination of αs\alpha_s from the C-parameter Distribution

We present a global fit for $\alpha_s(m_Z)$, analyzing the available C-parameter data measured at center-of-mass energies between $Q=35$ and $207$ GeV. The experimental data is compared to a N$^3$LL$^\prime$ + $\mathcal{O}(\alpha_s^3)$ + $\Omega_1$ theoretical prediction (up to the missing 4-loop cusp anomalous dimension), which includes power corrections coming from a field theoretical nonperturbative soft function. The dominant hadronic parameter is its first moment $\Omega_1$, which is defined in a scheme which eliminates the $\mathcal{O}(\Lambda_{\rm QCD})$ renormalon ambiguity. The resummation region plays a dominant role in the C-parameter spectrum, and in this region a fit for $\alpha_s(m_Z)$ and $\Omega_1$ is sufficient. We find $\alpha_s(m_Z)=0.1123\pm 0.0015$ and $\Omega_1=0.421\pm 0.063\,{\rm GeV}$ with $\chi^2/\rm{dof}=0.988$ for $404$ bins of data. These results agree with the prediction of universality for $\Omega_1$ between thrust and C-parameter within 1-$\sigma$.Comment: 24 pages, 19 figure

The Firms Speak: What the World Business Environment Survey Tells Us about Constraints on Private Sector Development

This chapter summarizes the salient results of the World Business Environment Survey (WBES). It shows that important dimensions of the climate for business operation and investment can be measured, analyzed, and compared across countries, and that governance is key to the business environment and investment climate. The survey findings suggest that key policy, institutional, and governance indicators affect the growth of a firm's sales and investment and the extent to which firms operate in the unofficial economy. Further, the paper provides empirical support for some commonly held notions, while challenging others. It suggests a link between taxation, financing, and corruption on the one hand, and growth and investment on the other, and it highlights the costs to economies where the state is captured by a narrow set of private interests.

Constraining Modular Inflation in the MSSM from Giant Q-Ball Formation

We discuss constraints on which flat directions can have large vacuum expectation values (VEVs) after inflation. We show that only flat directions which are not charged under B-L and develop positive pressure due to renormalization group effects can have large VEVs of order \Mp. For example, within the MSSM only the $H_uH_d$ flat direction is found to be viable. This strongly constrains the embedding of a broad class of inflationary models in the MSSM or some other supersymmetric extension of the SM. For flat directions with negative pressure, the condensate fragments into very large Q-balls which we call Q-giants. We discuss the formation, evolution and reheating of these Q-giants and show that they decay too late. The analysis requires taking into account new phases of the flat directions, which have been overlooked in the formation and dynamics of the Q-balls. These constraints may be ameliorated by invoking a short period of thermal inflation. The latter, however, is viable in a very narrow window of parameter space and requires fine tuning.Comment: 40 pages, 3 figure

Orbital transfer vehicle concept definition and system analysis study, 1985. Volume 3: System and program trades

The key system and program trade studies performed to arrive at a preferred Orbital Transfer Vehicle (OTV) system concept and evolutionary approach to the acquisition of the requisite capabilites is documented. These efforts were expanded to encompass a Space Transportation Architecture Study (STAS) mission model and recommended unmanned cargo vehicle. The most important factors affecting the results presented are the mission model requirements and selection criteria. The reason for conducting the OTV concept definition and system analyses study is to select a concept and acquisition approach that meets a delivery requirement reflected by the mission model