Confidence sets for split points in decision trees

We investigate the problem of finding confidence sets for split points in decision trees (CART). Our main results establish the asymptotic distribution of the least squares estimators and some associated residual sum of squares statistics in a binary decision tree approximation to a smooth regression curve. Cube-root asymptotics with nonnormal limit distributions are involved. We study various confidence sets for the split point, one calibrated using the subsampling bootstrap, and others calibrated using plug-in estimates of some nuisance parameters. The performance of the confidence sets is assessed in a simulation study. A motivation for developing such confidence sets comes from the problem of phosphorus pollution in the Everglades. Ecologists have suggested that split points provide a phosphorus threshold at which biological imbalance occurs, and the lower endpoint of the confidence set may be interpreted as a level that is protective of the ecosystem. This is illustrated using data from a Duke University Wetlands Center phosphorus dosing study in the Everglades.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/009053606000001415 in the Annals of Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aos/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Connecting anomaly and tunneling methods for Hawking effect through chirality

The role of chirality is discussed in unifying the anomaly and the tunneling formalisms for deriving the Hawking effect. Using the chirality condition and starting from the familiar form of the trace anomaly, the chiral (gravitational) anomaly, manifested as a nonconservation of the stress tensor, near the horizon of a black hole, is derived. Solution of this equation yields the stress tensor whose asymptotic infinity limit gives the Hawking flux. Finally, use of the same chirality condition in the tunneling formalism gives the Hawking temperature that is compatible with the flux obtained by anomaly method.Comment: LaTex, 8 pages, no figures, reformulation of tunneling mechanism, to appear in Phys. Rev.

Non-Abelian Proca model based on the improved BFT formalism

We present the newly improved Batalin-Fradkin-Tyutin (BFT) Hamiltonian formalism and the generalization to the Lagrangian formulation, which provide the much more simple and transparent insight to the usual BFT method, with application to the non-Abelian Proca model which has been an difficult problem in the usual BFT method. The infinite terms of the effectively first class constraints can be made to be the regular power series forms by ingenious choice of $X_{\alpha \beta}$ and $\omega^{\alpha \beta}$-matrices. In this new method, the first class Hamiltonian, which also needs infinite correction terms is obtained simply by replacing the original variables in the original Hamiltonian with the BFT physical variables. Remarkably all the infinite correction terms can be expressed in the compact exponential form. We also show that in our model the Poisson brackets of the BFT physical variables in the extended phase space are the same structure as the Dirac brackets of the original phase space variables. With the help of both our newly developed Lagrangian formulation and Hamilton's equations of motion, we obtain the desired classical Lagrangian corresponding to the first class Hamiltonian which can be reduced to the generalized St\"uckelberg Lagrangian which is non-trivial conjecture in our infinitely many terms involved in Hamiltonian and Lagrangian.Comment: Notable improvements in Sec. I

Certainty Equivalent Farm Returns from Bt and Non-Bt Cotton

Replaced with revised version of paper 02/14/06.Bt cotton, certainty equivalent, insecticide, refuge, returns, risk, simulated yield, spray, Farm Management,

Spin injection and perpendicular spin transport in graphite nanostructures

Organic and carbon-based materials are attractive for spintronics because their small spin-orbit coupling and low hyperfine interaction is expected to give rise to large spin-relaxation times. However, the corresponding spin-relaxation length is not necessarily large when transport is via weakly interacting molecular orbitals. Here we use graphite as a model system and study spin transport in the direction perpendicular to the weakly bonded graphene sheets. We achieve injection of highly (75%) spin-polarized electrons into graphite nanostructures of 300-500 nm across and up to 17 nm thick, and observe transport without any measurable loss of spin information. Direct visualization of local spin transport in graphite-based spin-valve sandwiches also shows spatially uniform and near-unity transmission for electrons at 1.8 eV above the Fermi level