DYNAMICS IN THE MACROECONOMY AND THE U.S. AGRICULTURAL TRADE BALANCE

The effects of the exchange rate and the income and money supply of the United States and its major trading partners on the U.S. agricultural trade balance are examined using an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model. Results suggest that the exchange rate is the key determinant of the short- and long-run behavior of the trade balance. It is also found that the income and money supply in both the United States and the trading partners have significant impacts on the U.S. agricultural trade in both the short- and long-run.Agricultural trade balance, autoregressive distributed lag model, exchange rate, income, macroeconomy, money supply, Agricultural and Food Policy,

Analyzing Factors Affecting U.S. Food Price Inflation.

Since the summer of 2007, U.S. food price has increased dramatically. Given public anxiety over fast-rising food prices in recent years, this paper attempts to analyze the effects of market factors ─ prices of energy and agricultural commodities and exchange rate ─ on U.S. food prices using a co-integration analysis. Results show that the agricultural commodity price and exchange rate play key roles in determining the short- and long-run movement of U.S. food prices. It is also found that in recent years, the energy price has been a significant factor affecting U.S. food prices in the long-run, but has little effect in the short-run. This implies the strong long-run linkage between energy and agricultural markets has emerged through production of commodity-based ethanol in the recent years.Agricultural commodity price, Energy price, Exchange rate, Food price inflation, Time-series analysis, Agribusiness,

A Dynamic Approach to the FDI-Environment Nexus: The Case of China and India

The cointegration analysis and a vector error-correction (VEC) model are applied to examine the short- and long-run relationships among foreign direct investment (FDI), economic growth, and the environment in China and India. The results show that FDI inflow plays a pivotal role in determining the short- and long-run movement of economic growth through capital accumulation and technical spillovers in the two countries. However, FDI inflow in both countries is found to have a detrimental effect on environmental quality in both the short- and long-run, supporting pollution haven hypothesis. Finally, it is found that, in the short-run, there exists a unidirectional causality from FDI inflow to economic growth and the environment in China and India - a change in FDI inflow causes a consequence change in environmental quality and economic growth, but the reverse does not hold.China, cointegration analysis, environment, FDI, India, vector error-correction, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods,

On the Dynamic Relationship between U.S. Farm Income and Macroeconomic Variables

This study examines the short- and long-run effects of changes in macroeconomic variables—agricultural commodity prices, interest rates and exchange rates—on the U.S. farm income. For this purpose, we adopt an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to cointegration with quarterly data for 1989–2008. Results show that the exchange rate plays a crucial role in determining the long-run behavior of U.S. farm income, but has little effect in the short-run. We also find that the commodity price and interest rate have been significant determinants of U.S. farm income in both the short- and long-run over the past two decades.autoregressive distributed lag model, commodity price, exchange rate, farm income, interest rate, long-run, short-run, Agribusiness, Consumer/Household Economics, Farm Management, Financial Economics, C22, E23, Q11,

How Sensitive is U.S. Agricultural Trade to the Bilateral Exchange Rate?: Evidence from Bulk and Consumer-oriented Products

This paper examines the dynamic effects of changes in the bilateral exchange rate on changes in the bilateral trade of bulk and consumer-oriented agricultural products between the U.S. and its 10 major trading partners. We find that, for consumer-oriented products, U.S. exports are highly sensitive to the bilateral exchange rate and foreign income in both the short- and long-run, while U.S. imports are mostly responsive to the U.S. domestic income. For bulk products, on the other hand, U.S. exports and imports are driven largely by the income of the U.S. and its trading partners and less by exchange rate changes in both the short- and long-run.Agricultural exports, agricultural imports, autoregressive distributed lag approach to cointegration, bulk, consumer-oriented, exchange rate, Agricultural and Food Policy, International Relations/Trade,

Price Dynamics in the North American Wheat Market

This study examines price dynamics in the U.S. and Canadian hard red spring (HRS) and durum wheat markets. Using monthly prices for 1979-2002, we adopt Johansen cointegration tests and a vector error-correction (VEC) model. The results show that U.S. hard red winter (HRW) and Canadian HRS are exogenous in the model consisting of U.S. HRW and HRS and Canadian HRS prices. Canadian durum is exogenous in the model of U.S. and Canadian durum prices. Therefore, the results suggest that the HRW exporting industry and Canada have been the price leader in North American wheat markets.Canadian wheat exports, durum wheat, hard red spring wheat, Johansen cointegration test, unit root test with a structural break, vector error-correction, Demand and Price Analysis,

Price Dynamics in the North American Wheat Market

Perron's test, Johansen cointegration analysis, and a vector error-correction (VEC) model are used to identify structural change, as well as to examine price dynamics in the U.S. and Canadian hard red spring (HRS) and durum wheat markets. It is found that, due to the U.S. Export Enhancement Program (EEP), price instability experienced in June 1986 has resulted in structural changes for Canadian HRS and durum prices. We also find that Canadian prices have significant effects on the determination of the U.S. prices in the North American wheat market.Canadian wheat exports, durum wheat, hard red spring wheat, Johansen cointe-gration test, unit root test with a structural break, vector error-correction, Demand and Price Analysis, International Relations/Trade,

The U.S. Agricultural Sector and the Macroeconomy

The effects of the exchange rate, the U.S. agricultural price, the domestic income, and the interest rate on the U.S. net farm income are investigated in a cointegration framework. For this purpose, the Phillips-Hansen fully-modified cointegration (FM-OLS) procedure is applied to annual data for the period 1957–2008. Results suggest that there exists the long-run equilibrium relationship between the U.S. net farm income and the selected macroeconomic variables. We also find that the exchange rate and U.S. agricultural price are more important than other variables in determining the U.S. net farm income.agricultural price, exchange rate, gross domestic product, interest rate, net farm income, Phillips-Hansen fully-modified cointegration technique, Agribusiness, Agricultural Finance, Land Economics/Use, Production Economics, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods, C22, E23, Q11,

Analyzing Effects of the U.S. Duties on Canadian Hard Red Spring Wheat

Since the United States imposed antidumping and countervailing duties totaling 14.16 percent on imports of Canadian hard red spring (HRS) wheat, Canadian exports to the United States have nearly stopped. This study examines the impact of the decreased HRS wheat imports from Canada on U.S. wheat prices and producer income. To measure the impacts of the U.S. duties accurately, special attention is paid to issues related to substitutability between HRS and hard red winter (HRW) wheat and third-country effects. Results suggest that the substantial decline in Canadian HRS wheat exports to the United States has increased U.S. HRS and HRW wheat prices and thus farm income.antidumping duties, Canadian exports, countervailing duties, farm revenue, hard red spring wheat, Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, Agricultural Finance, Crop Production/Industries, Farm Management, International Relations/Trade, Land Economics/Use, Political Economy,

U-Spin Tests of the Standard Model and New Physics

Within the standard model, a relation involving branching ratios and direct CP asymmetries holds for the B-decay pairs that are related by U-spin. The violation of this relation indicates new physics (NP). In this paper, we assume that the NP affects only the Delta S = 1 decays, and show that the NP operators are generally the same as those appearing in B -> pi K decays. The fit to the latest B -> pi K data shows that only one NP operator is sizeable. As a consequence, the relation is expected to be violated for only one decay pair: Bd -> K0 pi0 and Bs -> Kbar0 pi0.Comment: 12 pages, latex, no figures. References changed to follow MPL guidelines; info added about U-spin breaking and small NP strong phases; discussion added about final-state pi-K rescattering; analysis and conclusions unaltere