Integrated top-down and bottom-up model for energy and CO2 emissions analysis from Thailand’s long-term low carbon energy efficiency and renewable energy plan

This paper builds the energy demand and supply model from the bottom-up LEAP software and focus on evaluating and providing insights to the long-term energy and greenhouse gas impact from the national energy efficiency plan and alternative energy plan focus from 2015 to 2036 under the 2010 base year. From the results, we found that the energy demand would increase from 84.77 Mtoe in 2015 to 172.29 Mtoe, or 103.24% in 2036, mainly from the energy efficiency plan by applying the three main programmes with full successive ratio. The co-benefit result from greenhouse gas emission mitigation would decrease from 503.34 MtCO2 in 2036,161 and 116 Mt-CO2 from energy efficiency and alternative energy development plan in 2036, respectively. We also found that this mitigation also impacts to the decrease of grid emission factor from 506 in the BAU to 339 and 140 kgCO2-eq per MWh due to the higher renewable energy sources and imported hydro energy. From the LEAP results, the energy oriented input-output model with flexible production functions have been analyzed for the GDP and sectoral output, employment and trade balance impact from those integrated plans. We found that compared with the BAU, the integrated energy plans will have marginally negative impact on employment from 0.5% fewer jobs but higher energy efficiency targets would improve the trade balance as all non-energy sectors increase their outputs for international markets and also less dependent on energy imports of the country. Policy recommendations to deploy both energy plans are also raised

Energy-related CO<inf>2</inf> emissions growth in ASEAN countries: Trends, drivers and policy implications

© 2019 by the authors. The primary objective of this paper is to analyse the growth of energy-related CO2 emissions in ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations), with specific emphasis on identifying its trends and underlying drivers. This objective is premised on the arguments that: (1) there is a general lack of analysis of energy-related CO2 emissions growth across ASEAN countries; and (2) such an analysis is critical, because it could enable an assessment to be made of the efficacy of existing energy policies for reducing emissions. Decomposition analysis is the main approach adopted in this paper. The findings of this paper suggest that the growth of energy-related CO2 emissions has slowed in some major emitters in the region, due to energy efficiency improvement, and, to a lesser extent, a gradual switch in energy fuel mix towards lower emission sources (gas and renewables). However, this improvement is unlikely to drive a major transformation in the energy sectors of the region to the extent considered adequate for redressing the challenge of rising emissions, as indicated by a steady emissions growth in most ASEAN countries over the entire study period (1971–2016). By implication, this suggests that a significant scale-up of existing policy effort is needed to rectify the situations