Core CPI: excluding food, energy ... and used cars?

Although used car prices represent only a small portion of the consumer price index, their extreme volatility has had a major impact on the measured inflation rate. To explain this relationship, the authors describe how used cars are treated in the CPI and explore what might cause the wide swings in used car prices.Automobile industry and trade ; Consumer price indexes

Monetary policy transmission to residential investment

Paper for a conference sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York entitled Financial Innovation and Monetary TransmissionMonetary policy ; Housing - Finance ; Mortgages

Are home prices the next "bubble"?

The strong rise in home prices since the mid-1990s has raised concerns over a possible bubble in the housing market and the effect of a sharp price decline on the U.S. economy. This article assesses two measures frequently cited to support a bubble-the rising price-to-income ratio and the declining rent-to-price ratio-and finds the measures to be flawed and the conclusions drawn from them unpersuasive. In particular, the measures do not fully account for the effects of declining nominal mortgage interest rates and fail to use appropriate home price indexes. The authors also estimate a structural model of the housing market and find that aggregate prices are not inconsistent with long-run demand fundamentals. Accordingly, they conclude that market fundamentals are strong enough to explain the recent path of home prices and that no bubble exists. Nevertheless, weakening fundamentals could have an impact on home values on the east and west coasts, where the new housing supply appears to be relatively inelastic. However, prices in these regions have typically been volatile, and previous declines have not had a sizable negative effect on the overall economy.Housing - Prices ; Housing - Finance ; Business cycles

Housing outcomes: an assessment of long-term trends

This paper was presented at the conference "Unequal incomes, unequal outcomes? Economic inequality and measures of well-being" as part of session 2, " Affordability of housing for young and poor families." The conference was held at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York on May 7, 1999. The authors examine trends in housing outcomes by income group. Orr and Peach indicate that there has been a substantial improvement in the physical adequacy of the housing stock over the past few decades, particularly for households in the lowest income quintile. Neighborhood quality for all income groups has also improved, although sharp differences in quality continue to exist across the groups. In one important respect, however, lower income households are worse off than before - housing costs now absorb a larger share of their income.Housing ; Housing - Finance

After the refinancing boom: will consumers scale back their spending?

Concerns are rising that the recent surge in home equity withdrawal has left consumers in a weakened financial position that will, over time, prompt a retrenchment in spending. However, a look at household assets and liabilities suggests that consumers have used the withdrawn funds to restructure their balance sheets and reduce their debt service burden. As a result, households may be in a better position to spend in the years ahead.Home equity loans ; Consumer credit ; Consumer behavior

Bostonia. Volume 13

Founded in 1900, Bostonia magazine is Boston University's main alumni publication, which covers alumni and student life, as well as university activities, events, and programs

England’s green and pleasant land: comparing land sparing and sharing in the UK

Globally, agriculture is the leading threat to biodiversity. For many regions of the world, empirical evidence suggests that most species would fare least badly if food demand was met through high-yield production linked to the sparing of non-farmed habitats (‘land sparing’), rather than producing both food and wildlife in a larger area of wildlife-friendly farmland (‘land sharing’). The UK, however, may be different: several priority species are associated with sympathetically managed farmland, whilst many sensitive, land-sparing preferring species may already have been lost. We therefore explored the trade-offs and synergies between food production and wildlife conservation for two regions of lowland England. We quantified the relationship between agricultural production and abundance of individual bird species, in order to evaluate various landscape-level food production strategies, including land sparing and land sharing

Use of seasonal trend decomposition to understand groundwater behaviour in the Permo-Triassic Sandstone aquifer, Eden Valley, UK

The daily groundwater level (GWL) response in the Permo-Triassic Sandstone aquifers in the Eden Valley, England (UK), has been studied using the seasonal trend decomposition by LOESS (STL) technique. The hydrographs from 18 boreholes in the Permo-Triassic Sandstone were decomposed into three components: seasonality, general trend and remainder. The decomposition was analysed first visually, then using tools involving a variance ratio, time-series hierarchical clustering and correlation analysis. Differences and similarities in decomposition pattern were explained using the physical and hydrogeological information associated with each borehole. The Penrith Sandstone exhibits vertical and horizontal heterogeneity, whereas the more homogeneous St Bees Sandstone groundwater hydrographs characterize a well-identified seasonality; however, exceptions can be identified. A stronger trend component is obtained in the silicified parts of the northern Penrith Sandstone, while the southern Penrith, containing Brockram (breccias) Formation, shows a greater relative variability of the seasonal component. Other boreholes drilled as shallow/deep pairs show differences in responses, revealing the potential vertical heterogeneities within the Penrith Sandstone. The differences in bedrock characteristics between and within the Penrith and St Bees Sandstone formations appear to influence the GWL response. The de-seasonalized and de-trended GWL time series were then used to characterize the response, for example in terms of memory effect (autocorrelation analysis). By applying the STL method, it is possible to analyse GWL hydrographs leading to better conceptual understanding of the groundwater flow. Thus, variation in groundwater response can be used to gain insight into the aquifer physical properties and understand differences in groundwater behaviour

Virtual Flow-T Stenting for Two Patient-Specific Bifurcation Aneurysms

The effective treatment of wide necked cerebral aneurysms located at vessel bifurcations (WNBAs) remains a significant challenge. Such aneurysm geometries have typically been approached with Y or T stenting configurations of stents and/or flow diverters, often with the addition of endovascular coils. In this study, two WNBAs were virtually treated by a novel T-stenting technique (Flow-T) with a number of braided stents and flow-diverter devices. Multiple possible device deployment configurations with varying device compression levels were tested, using fast-deployment algorithms, before a steady state computational hemodynamic simulation was conducted to examine the efficacy and performance of each scenario. The virtual fast deployment algorithm based on a linear and torsional spring analogy is used to accurately deploy nine stents in two WNBAs geometries. The devices expand from the distal to proximal side of the devices with respect to aneurysm sac. In the WNBAs modelled, all configurations of Flow-T device placement were shown to reduce factors linked with increased aneurysm rupture risk including aneurysm inflow jets and high aneurysm velocity, along with areas of flow impingement and elevated wall shear stress (WSS). The relative position of the flow-diverting device in the secondary daughter vessel in the Flow-T approach was found to have a negligible effect on overall effectiveness of the procedure in the two geometries considered. The level of interventionalist-applied compression in the braised stent that forms the other arm of the Flow-T approach was shown to impact the aneurysm inflow reduction and aneurysm flow pattern more substantially. In the Flow-T approach the relative position of the secondary daughter vessel flow-diverter device (the SVB) was found to have a negligible effect on inflow reduction, aneurysm flow pattern, or WSS distribution in both aneurysm geometries. This suggests that the device placement in this vessel may be of secondary importance. By contrast, substantially more variation in inflow reduction and aneurysm flow pattern was seen due to variations in braided stent (LVIS EVO or Baby Leo) compression at the aneurysm neck. As such we conclude that the success of a Flow-T procedure is primarily dictated by the level of compression that the interventionalist applies to the braided stent. Similar computationally predicted outcomes for both aneurysm geometries studied suggest that adjunct coiling approach taken in the clinical intervention of the second geometry may have been unnecessary for successful aneurysm isolation. Finally, the computational modelling framework proposed offers an effective planning platform for complex endovascular techniques, such as Flow-T, where the scope of device choice and combination is large and selecting the best strategy and device combination from several candidates is vital