House prices, housing development costs, and the supply of new single-family housing in German counties and cities

This paper employs panel data on 413 German counties and cities from 2004 to 2009 to investigate the supply of new single-family housing in local housing markets. New local housing supply is measured by the annual number of construction permits in relation to the existing single-family housing stock. This supply indicator is econometrically related to existing home prices and new housing development costs, which include the costs of housing construction and vacant land in a given location. The results suggest that both higher prices for existing homes and recent increases in development costs are positively associated with local single-family home permit rates. Instead, higher levels of development costs turn out to dampen construction activity. The average local price elasticity of new single-family home supply is considerably less than one, with surprising differences across the urban hierarchy

Do local governments tax homeowner communities differently?

This paper investigates whether and how strongly the share of homeowners in a community affects residential property taxation by local governments. Different from renters, homeowners bear the full property tax burden irrespective of local market conditions, and the tax is more salient to them. "Homeowner communities" may hence oppose high property taxes in order to protect their housing wealth. Using granular spatial data from a complete housing inventory in the 2011 German Census and historical war damages as a source of exogenous variation in local homeownership, we provide empirical evidence that otherwise identical jurisdictions charge significantly lower property taxes when the share of homeowners in their population is higher. This result is invariant to local market conditions, which suggests tax salience as the key mechanism behind this effect. We find positive spatial dependence in tax multipliers, indicative of property tax mimicking by local governments

Ist eine makroprudenzielle Regulierung des deutschen Hypothekenmarktes geboten?

Die Bundesregierung hat neue Instrumente der makroprudenziellen Regulierung für den deutschen Hypothekenmarkt geschaffen. Dieser Aufsatz untersucht die Notwendigkeit der Anwendung dieser Instrumente vor dem Hintergrund bestehender Finanzierungsgewohnheiten und Regulierungen. Angesichts der im internationalen Vergleich bereits als konservativ anzusehenden Ausgestaltung der Wohnimmobilienfinanzierung erscheint ein Einsatz makroprudenzieller Instrumente auf absehbare Zeit nicht erforderlich. Grundsätzlich sollten Entscheidungen hierüber regelgebunden auf Grundlage belastbarer Einzelkreditdaten erfolgen. Dafür bedarf es insgesamt eines besseren Monitorings des Immobilienfinanzierungsmarktes

Aging and urban house prices

This paper investigates the long-run relationships between the size and age composition of a city’s population and the price of local housing. For estimation purposes, we combine city-level demographic information with hous-ing price data for 87 cities in Germany over the period 1995-2012. Employing a panel error correction framework that accounts for the evolution of city income and other controls, we find that urban house prices perform stronger in cities that grow or age less rapidly. A combination of the empirical estimates with current population projections suggests that population aging will exert considerable downward pressure on urban house prices in upcoming years

The house price-vacancy curve

Individual sales prices and local vacancy rates in the housing market pose a natural analogy to the wage curve, a popular concept in labor economics that describes how individual wages decrease with higher local unemployment. While housing search and matching models and housing externalities strongly suggest a stable inverse relationship, there is still a lack of convincing empirical research on the sensitivity of house sales to local vacancy variation. Based on more than 10,000 single-family home transactions from the German market, this paper confirms a robust house price-vacancy curve among individual home prices and adjacent residential vacancies. The economic size of the relationship is highly comparable across all four analyzed states: a doubling of the vacancy rate at the municipality level is associated with a 5-8% discount in quality-controlled selling prices. Despite negative price signals, local vacancy distributions tend to persist over long time horizons, leaving room for policy intervention

Risk attitude and capital market participation: Is there a gender investment gap in Germany?

Do women invest differently than men? We contribute to the answer of this question by analysing the Panel on Household Finances (PHF) of the German Bundesbank. This representative panel collects a wide variety of behavioural and financial variables in the area of household finance. We find that participation in risky assets is generally lower among women than among men. Once risk attitude is controlled for, this effect shrinks to only 2.6 percent. We find no difference when single women are compared to single men – even irrespective of other demographic variables. The raw gap in capital market participation is mainly explained by different risk attitudes and monetary endowments, but women would participate even less in the capital market if they reacted as sensitively to risk aversion as their male counterparts. Lastly, given participation in the market, we find that both genders hold comparable portions of risky assets in their portfolios. Within their risky assets, men invest more in certificates and listed shares whereas women invest more in funds

Can Internet Ads Serve as an Indicator of Homeownership Rates?

In this paper, we propose an indicator of the homeownership rate based on Internet ads offering the housing for rent and sale. We constructed the HOR estimate using the number of ads in four different markets (flats for rent, flats for sale, houses for rent, and houses for sale). Our HOR indicator was tested using data of German NUTS1 and planning (ROR) regions. The correlation between our estimate of the HOR and the alternative HOR figures varies between 0.834 and 0.874 at NUTS1 level and is 0.761 at the ROR level. All correlation coefficients are statistically significant. Our HOR estimate is particularly highly correlated with the official HOR figures. Thus, it is shown that our Internet-based indices could serve as a good indicator of the homeownership rate in German regions

Anthracycline rechallenge using pegylated liposomal doxorubicin in patients with metastatic breast cancer: a pooled analysis using individual data from four prospective trials

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to determine the activity of anthracycline rechallenge using pegylated liposomal doxorubicin (PLD) in patients with metastatic breast cancer (MBC) previously treated with conventional anthracyclines. METHODS: Pooled individual data from four prospective trials were used, and the primary end point of the pooled analysis was clinical benefit rate (CBR). The studies comprised 935 patients, of whom 274 had received PLD in the metastatic setting after prior exposure to conventional anthracyclines (rechallenge population). RESULTS: The majority of patients were heavily pretreated. Previous anthracycline therapy was administered in the adjuvant (14%) or metastatic setting (46%), or both (40%). The overall CBR from rechallenge with PLD was 37.2% (95% CI, 32.4-42.0). In univariate analyses, the CBR was significantly higher in patients with less exposure to prior chemotherapy, in taxane-naive patients, and in patients with a favourable Eastern Cooperative Group performance status of 0 vs 1 vs 2 (53.3 vs 35.5 vs 18.2%; P<0.001). In multivariate analyses, performance status proved to be the only independent predictor of the CBR achieved with PLD rechallenge (P=0.038). There was no statistically significant difference in CBR regarding the setting, cumulative dose of and/or resistance to prior anthracyclines, or time since prior anthracycline administration. CONCLUSION: Anthracycline rechallenge using PLD is effective in patients with MBC who have a favourable performance status, regardless of setting, resistance, cumulative dose or time since prior conventional anthracycline therapy. British Journal of Cancer (2010) 103, 1518-1523. doi:10.1038/sj.bjc.6605961 www.bjcancer.com Published online 26 October 2010 (C) 2010 Cancer Research U

Aging and urban house prices

This paper investigates the long-run relationships between the size and age composition of a city’s population and the price of local housing. For estimation purposes, we combine city-level demographic information with hous-ing price data for 87 cities in Germany over the period 1995-2012. Employing a panel error correction framework that accounts for the evolution of city income and other controls, we find that urban house prices perform stronger in cities that grow or age less rapidly. A combination of the empirical estimates with current population projections suggests that population aging will exert considerable downward pressure on urban house prices in upcoming years

Ist eine makroprudenzielle Regulierung des deutschen Hypothekenmarktes geboten?

Die Bundesregierung hat neue Instrumente der makroprudenziellen Regulierung für den deutschen Hypothekenmarkt geschaffen. Dieser Aufsatz untersucht die Notwendigkeit der Anwendung dieser Instrumente vor dem Hintergrund bestehender Finanzierungsgewohnheiten und Regulierungen. Angesichts der im internationalen Vergleich bereits als konservativ anzusehenden Ausgestaltung der Wohnimmobilienfinanzierung erscheint ein Einsatz makroprudenzieller Instrumente auf absehbare Zeit nicht erforderlich. Grundsätzlich sollten Entscheidungen hierüber regelgebunden auf Grundlage belastbarer Einzelkreditdaten erfolgen. Dafür bedarf es insgesamt eines besseren Monitorings des Immobilienfinanzierungsmarktes