Effect of predation risk on the presence and persistence of yellow-bellied marmot (Marmota flaviventris) colonies

Habitat selection may have population level consequences and ultimately may influence a population's local persistence or extinction. We capitalized on a long-term study (1962-2004) of yellow-bellied marmots Marmota flaviventris in and around the Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory, Gothic, Colorado, USA, and compared habitat characteristics associated with food availability and predation risk to explain variation in persistence of marmots at 27 sites, and their absence at 22 additional, randomly selected sites. We classified sites as persistent, intermittent or null based on whether there was a history of extinction; intermittent sites periodically went extinct and null sites never had marmots. Logistic regression analyses revealed that environmental variables associated with visibility and safety, rather than food, correctly classified sites as persistent or non-persistent as well as persistent or intermittent. Discriminant function analysis that included the null sites revealed that the same visibility-related characteristics predicted where marmots were found. These results highlight the importance of variation in safety among sites in predicting long-term population persistence, as well as a species' distribution

Effects of patch quality and network structure on patch occupancy dynamics of a yellow-bellied marmot metapopulation

1. The presence/absence of a species at a particular site is the simplest form of data that can be collected during ecological field studies. We used 13 years (1990-2002) of survey data to parameterize a stochastic patch occupancy model for a metapopulation of the yellow-bellied marmot in Colorado, and investigated the significance of particular patches and the influence of site quality, network characteristics and regional stochasticity on the metapopulation persistence. 2. Persistence of the yellow-bellied marmot metapopulation was strongly dependent on the high quality colony sites, and persistence probability was highly sensitive to small changes in the quality of these sites. 3. A relatively small number of colony sites was ultimately responsible for the regional persistence. However, lower quality satellite sites also made a significant contribution to long-term metapopulation persistence, especially when regional stochasticity was high. 4. The northern network of the marmot metapopulation was more stable compared to the southern network, and the persistence of the southern network depended heavily on the northern network. 5. Although complex models of metapopulation dynamics may provide a more accurate description of metapopulation dynamics, such models are data-intensive. Our study, one of the very few applications of stochastic patch occupancy models to a mammalian species, suggests that stochastic patch occupancy models can provide important insights into metapopulation dynamics using data that are easy to collect