ECLAIRE: Effects of Climate Change on Air Pollution Impacts and Response Strategies for European Ecosystems. Project final report

The central goal of ECLAIRE is to assess how climate change will alter the extent to which air pollutants threaten terrestrial ecosystems. Particular attention has been given to nitrogen compounds, especially nitrogen oxides (NOx) and ammonia (NH3), as well as Biogenic Volatile Organic Compounds (BVOCs) in relation to tropospheric ozone (O3) formation, including their interactions with aerosol components. ECLAIRE has combined a broad program of field and laboratory experimentation and modelling of pollution fluxes and ecosystem impacts, advancing both mechanistic understanding and providing support to European policy makers. The central finding of ECLAIRE is that future climate change is expected to worsen the threat of air pollutants on Europe’s ecosystems. Firstly, climate warming is expected to increase the emissions of many trace gases, such as agricultural NH3, the soil component of NOx emissions and key BVOCs. Experimental data and numerical models show how these effects will tend to increase atmospheric N deposition in future. By contrast, the net effect on tropospheric O3 is less clear. This is because parallel increases in atmospheric CO2 concentrations will offset the temperature-driven increase for some BVOCs, such as isoprene. By contrast, there is currently insufficient evidence to be confident that CO2 will offset anticipated climate increases in monoterpene emissions. Secondly, climate warming is found to be likely to increase the vulnerability of ecosystems towards air pollutant exposure or atmospheric deposition. Such effects may occur as a consequence of combined perturbation, as well as through specific interactions, such as between drought, O3, N and aerosol exposure. These combined effects of climate change are expected to offset part of the benefit of current emissions control policies. Unless decisive mitigation actions are taken, it is anticipated that ongoing climate warming will increase agricultural and other biogenic emissions, posing a challenge for national emissions ceilings and air quality objectives related to nitrogen and ozone pollution. The O3 effects will be further worsened if progress is not made to curb increases in methane (CH4) emissions in the northern hemisphere. Other key findings of ECLAIRE are that: 1) N deposition and O3 have adverse synergistic effects. Exposure to ambient O3 concentrations was shown to reduce the Nitrogen Use Efficiency of plants, both decreasing agricultural production and posing an increased risk of other forms of nitrogen pollution, such as nitrate leaching (NO3-) and the greenhouse gas nitrous oxide (N2O); 2) within-canopy dynamics for volatile aerosol can increase dry deposition and shorten atmospheric lifetimes; 3) ambient aerosol levels reduce the ability of plants to conserve water under drought conditions; 4) low-resolution mapping studies tend to underestimate the extent of local critical loads exceedance; 5) new dose-response functions can be used to improve the assessment of costs, including estimation of the value of damage due to air pollution effects on ecosystems, 6) scenarios can be constructed that combine technical mitigation measures with dietary change options (reducing livestock products in food down to recommended levels for health criteria), with the balance between the two strategies being a matter for future societal discussion. ECLAIRE has supported the revision process for the National Emissions Ceilings Directive and will continue to deliver scientific underpinning into the future for the UNECE Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution

ECLAIRE third periodic report

The ÉCLAIRE project (Effects of Climate Change on Air Pollution Impacts and Response Strategies for European Ecosystems) is a four year (2011-2015) project funded by the EU's Seventh Framework Programme for Research and Technological Development (FP7)

National-level drug policy and young people's illicit drug use: A multilevel analysis of the European Union.

Introduction: Recent research has called upon investigators to exploit cross-national differences to uncover the cultural and structural factors influencing drug use. While the individual-level correlates are well-established, little is known about the association between cross-national variation in drug policies and young people's substance use. This study examines, net of individual-level predictors, the association between national-level drug policy and use of an illicit drug other than cannabis. Methods: The study uses Eurobarometer repeated cross-sectional surveys in 2002 and 2004 of adolescents aged 15–24 drawn in multistage, random probability samples proportional to population size and density within regions of their country (N = 15,191). Participants completed self-reported measures of last month drug use, attitudes toward drugs, school and work participation, and demographics. Gathered from several international bodies, national-level policy measures include drug offense levels, possession decriminalization, and presence and usage of harm reduction strategies. Results: Hierarchical logistic regression models demonstrate that, while controlling for important individual-level predictors, in countries where there is no restriction on possession of drugs for personal use, the odds of drug use in the last month are 79% lower (p < 0.05). On the other hand, higher usage of treatment and drug substitution are associated with higher levels of drug use. These results are robust to several alternate specifications. Conclusions: Among the strongest and most consistent findings, eliminating punishments for possession for personal use is not associated with higher drug use. The results indicate that researchers should take national-level context into account in individual-level studies of drug use

Cognitive aptitude, peers, and trajectories of marijuana use from adolescence through young adulthood.

BACKGROUND:Using a nationally representative longitudinal cohort, we examine how cognitive aptitude in early adolescence is associated with heterogeneous pathways of marijuana use from age sixteen through young adulthood. We also examine whether this relationship can be explained by the role of cognitive aptitude in the social organization of peer group deviance. METHODS:Using the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997, we identified 5 latent trajectories of frequency of marijuana use between ages 16 and 26: abstainers, dabblers, early heavy quitters, consistent users, and persistent heavy users. Multinomial regression assessed the relationship of cognitive aptitude in early adolescence with these latent trajectories, including the role of peer group substance use in this relationship. RESULTS:A one decile increase in cognitive aptitude in early adolescence is associated with greater relative risk of the dabbler trajectory (RR = 1.048; p < .001) and consistent user trajectory (RR = 1.126; p < .001), but lower relative risk of the early heavy quitter trajectory (RR = 0.917; p < .05) in comparison with the abstainer trajectory. There was no effect for the persistent heavy user trajectory. The inclusion of peer group substance use-either via illegal drugs or smoking-had no effect on these relationships. CONCLUSIONS:Adolescents who rate higher in cognitive aptitude during early adolescence may be more likely to enter into consistent but not extreme trajectories of marijuana use as they age into young adulthood. Cognition may not influence patterns of marijuana use over time via the organization of peer groups

Moving Upstream: The Effect of Tobacco Clean Air Restrictions on Educational Inequalities in Smoking Among Young Adults

Education affords a range of direct and indirect benefits that promote longer and healthier lives and stratify health lifestyles. We use tobacco clean air policies to examine whether policies that apply universally—interventions that bypass individuals’ unequal access and ability to employ flexible resources to avoid health hazards—have an effect on educational inequalities in health behaviors. We test theoretically informed but competing hypotheses that these policies either amplify or attenuate the association between education and smoking behavior. Our results provide evidence that interventions that move upstream to apply universally regardless of individual educational attainment—here, tobacco clean air policies—are particularly effective among young adults with the lowest levels of parental or individual educational attainment. These findings provide important evidence that upstream approaches may disrupt persistent educational inequalities in health behaviors. In doing so, they provide opportunities to intervene on behaviors in early adulthood that contribute to disparities in morbidity and mortality later in the life course. These findings also help assuage concerns that tobacco clean air policies increase educational inequalities in smoking by stigmatizing those with the fewest resources