Revenue consequences, redistribution effects and investment impacts of tax reforms in Germany and in the European Union

Tax systems of both Germany and other European countries are often subject to tax reforms. On the one hand, tax systems should be economically efficient, i.e., they should not involve welfare losses or lead to distortions of decisions. On the other hand, tax reforms could only be implemented if budget consequences are acceptable for the fiscal authority, i.e., potential revenue losses have to be either moderate or compensable by countermeasures. Revenue consequences of possible tax reforms are therefore of crucial importance for the fiscal authority. In addition to aggregate revenue impacts, redistribution effects on the level of single companies are relevant for the acceptance and the enforcement of tax reforms. Redistribution effects are particularly relevant if certain companies or industries should be supported or not additionally strained. Against this background, in the first three papers of my cumulative dissertation I analyze revenue and redistribution effects of two reform scenarios that are currently under political discussion. Revenue impacts of reforming inter-period loss-offset provisions in Germany are analyzed in the first paper using a prototypical dynamic microsimulation model. This prototypical model is developed further into the microsimulation model ASSERT (paper 2), which is applied in paper 3 to estimate revenue consequences of a reform regarding the German group taxation regulations. Because tax reforms in general and especially the analyzed reform scenarios do not only affect tax revenue of the states involved but also the (investment) behavior of the companies concerned, it is important to consider so-called second-round effects when quantifying revenue consequences of tax reforms. In the fourth paper I empirically identify companies' behavioral responses and analyze the impact of tax depreciation on the level of investment. I use cross-section and panel data analyses and differentiate between companies that have and companies that do not have a tax loss carry-forward. In addition to the effects of tax depreciation on investment in the whole sample I estimate size-specific investment impacts by dividing the sample into large, medium-sized and small corporations. The estimated behavioral responses (and also other responses to tax reforms) should in the future be implemented in the microsimulation model ASSERT