Seismic Waveform Modeling of Natural Hazards and Sharp Structural Boundaries

Seismic waveform modeling is a powerful tool for seismologists to learn about the Earth’s dynamics, either how a natural hazard evolves with time, or the long-term deformation process governed by fine-scale structures along boundaries inside the Earth. Knowing that the recorded seismograms reflect the cumulative effects of the source, the earth structure, and the instrument response, I carefully study the characters of the seismograms such as the arrival time, amplitude, frequency content, and multipathing, for several settings, with the goal of improving our description of either the source or the structure. Part 1 focuses on source characterization for non-earthquake natural hazards. I perform moment tensor inversions for the large seismic events at the Kilauea summit to infer the triggering mechanisms for the explosive eruptions and caldera collapse during the 2018 eruption sequence. The addition of infrasound data is crucial to resolve the uncertainties in the moment tensor solutions, particularly the depth and the necessity of the isotropic component. I also present a new mechanistic model to describe the seismic signal from debris flow and apply to the 2018 Montecito debris flow in which key parameters such as boulder size and flow rate and their evolution during the event can be determined using a single seismic station. Part 2 consists of three studies spanning from the crust to the core, where forward waveform modeling is used to improve our understanding of the sharp structural boundaries and their role in observed ground motion and long-term dynamics. Numerical simulation and dense array analysis are used to model the direct effect of shallow basin structures in Los Angeles on shaking duration and reveal the importance of basin edges and attenuation model for predicting ground motion during large shallow ruptures. I also identify a strong velocity contrast in the lower crust – upper mantle structure across the San Andreas plate boundary system and, given velocity is a proxy to lithospheric strength, the sharp contrast can have a significant role in modulating the long-term plate deformation. Lastly, we observe strong waveform anomalies at the edge of the Pacific Large Low Shear Velocity Province (LLSVP) which have great importance in governing deep mantle convection. To fit the observation, I propose a model of ultra-low velocity zone (ULVZ), plume and slab interacting at the edge of the LLSVP. The configuration and location of this ULVZ-plume-slab interaction is important in inferring the mechanism behind plume generation which gives rise to the Hawaii-Emperor Seamount chain.</p

Evidence for strong lateral seismic velocity variation in the lower crust and upper mantle beneath the California margin

Regional seismograms from earthquakes in Northern California show a systematic difference in arrival times across Southern California where long period (30–50 s) SH waves arrive up to 15 s earlier at stations near the coast compared with sites towards the east at similar epicentral distances. We attribute this time difference to heterogeneity of the velocity structure at the crust–mantle interface beneath the California margin. To model these observations, we propose a fast seismic layer, with thickness growing westward from the San Andreas along with a thicker and slower continental crust to the east. Synthetics generated from such a model are able to match the observed timing of SH waveforms better than existing 3D models. The presence of a strong upper mantle buttressed against a weaker crust has a major influence in how the boundary between the Pacific plate and North American plate deforms and may explain the observed asymmetric strain rate across the boundary

Shallow Basin Structure and Attenuation Are Key to Predicting Long Shaking Duration in Los Angeles Basin

Ground motions in the Los Angeles Basin during large earthquakes are modulated by earthquake ruptures, path effects into the basin, basin effects, and local site response. We analyzed the direct effect of shallow basin structures on shaking duration at a period of 2–10 s in the Los Angeles region through modeling small magnitude, shallow, and deep earthquake pairs. The source depth modulates the basin response, particularly the shaking duration, and these features are a function of path effect and not site condition. Three‐dimensional simulations using the CVM‐S4.26.M01 velocity model show good fitting to the initial portion of the waveforms at periods of 5 s and longer but fail to predict the long shaking duration during shallow events, especially at periods less than 5 s. Simulations using CVM‐H do not match the timing of the initial arrivals as well as CVM‐S4.26.M01, and the strong late arrivals in the CVM‐H simulation travel with an apparent velocity slower than observed. A higher‐quality factor than traditionally assumed may produce synthetics with longer durations but is unable to accurately match the amplitude and phase. Beamforming analysis using dense array data further reveals the long duration surface waves have the same back azimuth as the direct arrivals and are generated at the basin edges, while the later coda waves are scattered from off‐azimuth directions, potentially due to strong, sharp boundaries offshore. Improving the description of these shallow basin structures and attenuation model will enhance our capability to predict long‐period ground motions in basins

Shallow Basin Structure and Attenuation Are Key to Predicting Long Shaking Duration in Los Angeles Basin

Ground motions in the Los Angeles Basin during large earthquakes are modulated by earthquake ruptures, path effects into the basin, basin effects, and local site response. We analyzed the direct effect of shallow basin structures on shaking duration at a period of 2–10 s in the Los Angeles region through modeling small magnitude, shallow, and deep earthquake pairs. The source depth modulates the basin response, particularly the shaking duration, and these features are a function of path effect and not site condition. Three‐dimensional simulations using the CVM‐S4.26.M01 velocity model show good fitting to the initial portion of the waveforms at periods of 5 s and longer but fail to predict the long shaking duration during shallow events, especially at periods less than 5 s. Simulations using CVM‐H do not match the timing of the initial arrivals as well as CVM‐S4.26.M01, and the strong late arrivals in the CVM‐H simulation travel with an apparent velocity slower than observed. A higher‐quality factor than traditionally assumed may produce synthetics with longer durations but is unable to accurately match the amplitude and phase. Beamforming analysis using dense array data further reveals the long duration surface waves have the same back azimuth as the direct arrivals and are generated at the basin edges, while the later coda waves are scattered from off‐azimuth directions, potentially due to strong, sharp boundaries offshore. Improving the description of these shallow basin structures and attenuation model will enhance our capability to predict long‐period ground motions in basins

The Seismic Signature of Debris Flows: Flow Mechanics and Early Warning at Montecito, California

Debris flows are concentrated slurries of water and sediment that shape the landscape and pose a major hazard to human life and infrastructure. Seismic ground motion‐based observations promise to provide new, remote constraints on debris flow physics, but the lack of data and a theoretical basis for interpreting them hinders progress. Here we present a new mechanistic physical model for the seismic ground motion of debris flows and apply this to the devastating debris flows in Montecito, California on 9 January 2018. The amplitude and frequency characteristics of the seismic data can distinguish debris flows from other seismic sources and enable the estimation of debris‐flow speed, width, boulder sizes, and location. Results suggest that present instrumentation could have provided 5 min of early warning over limited areas, whereas a seismic array designed for debris flows would have provided 10 min of warning for most of the city

Aerial Seismology Using Balloon-Based Barometers

Seismology on Venus has long eluded planetary scientists due to extreme temperature and pressure conditions on its surface, which most electronics cannot withstand for mission durations required for ground-based seismic studies. We show that infrasonic (low-frequency) pressure fluctuations, generated as a result of ground motion, produced by an artificial seismic source known as a seismic hammer, and recorded using sensitive microbarometers deployed on a tethered balloon, are able to replicate the frequency content of ground motion. We also show that weak, artificial seismic activity thus produced may be geolocated by using multiple airborne barometers. The success of this technique paves the way for balloon-based aero-seismology, leading to a potentially revolutionary method to perform seismic studies from a remote airborne station on the earth and solar system objects with substantial atmospheres such as Venus and Titan

Detection of Artificially Generated Seismic Signals using Balloon-borne Infrasound Sensors

We conducted an experiment in Pahrump, Nevada, in June 2017, where artificial seismic signals were created using a seismic hammer, and the possibility of detecting them from their acoustic signature was examined. In this work, we analyze the pressure signals recorded by highly sensitive barometers deployed on the ground and on tethers suspended from balloons. Our signal processing results show that wind noise experienced by a barometer on a free‐flying balloon is lower compared to one on a moored balloon. This has never been experimentally demonstrated in the lower troposphere. While seismoacoustic signals were not recorded on the hot air balloon platform owing to operational challenges, we demonstrate the detection of seismoacoustic signals on our moored balloon platform. Our results have important implications for performing seismology in harsh surface environments such as Venus through atmospheric remote sensing