An exactly solvable record model for rainfall

Daily precipitation time series are composed of null entries corresponding to dry days and nonzero entries that describe the rainfall amounts on wet days. Assuming that wet days follow a Bernoulli process with success probability $p$, we show that the presence of dry days induces negative correlations between record-breaking precipitation events. The resulting non-monotonic behavior of the Fano factor of the record counting process is recovered in empirical data. We derive the full probability distribution $P(R,n)$ of the number of records $R_n$ up to time $n$, and show that for large $n$, its large deviation form coincides with that of a Poisson distribution with parameter $\ln(p\,n)$. We also study in detail the joint limit $p \to 0$, $n \to \infty$, which yields a random record model in continuous time $t = pn$.Comment: 11 pages, 2 figures + 13 pages and 2 figures of supplemental materia

L’absence maternelle, matrice de Cendrillon de Joël Pommerat

S’engager dans une réflexion sur l’œuvre de Joël Pommerat pose une première difficulté. L’artiste ne cesse en effet de mettre en évidence son goût pour la complexité, l’incertain, le trouble – pour reprendre le titre de l’ouvrage de Joëlle Gayot. Nous amorçons ici une entreprise paradoxale lors de laquelle nous chercherons à mettre en lumière certains aspects d’un spectacle, sans pour autant nous laisser aveugler par une trop grande clarté. Ce n’est pas un hasard si la compagnie de l’artiste..

Development of a statistical daily precipitation model and its application to precipitation records

In recent years, numerous record-breaking precipitation events have caused several deaths and high economic losses. However, current precipitation models do not adequately capture exceptionally high precipitation events. To address this problem, a new statistical daily precipitation model including several new aspects was developed. The model distinguishes between stratiform and convective precipitation, whereby the disaggregation of these two types of precipitation is based on SYNOP reports of 300 German weather stations. By combining a Weibull distribution with power law, a new probability distribution was derived and later implemented in the amount process. This four-parameter distribution improves the modelling of extreme precipitation amounts enormously and still delivers good results for small amounts. To take account of variability, a confined random walk was additionally implemented in the occurrence process of the model. The model was developed in a manner that allows universal use. By incorporating the elevation of a station and the time of the year as input parameters, the model was made applicable at any time and for any location in Germany. In a second step the model was applied to investigate daily precipitation records. For that, linear changes were implemented into the model. As result, a previously found decrease of records in the summer season can be explained by changes in the stratiform precipitation distribution. However, the decrease of precipitation records in the summer season is too low to rule out random processes as cause of this decrease. In contrast, the increase in the mean number of precipitation records in winter season cannot be reproduced with the developed model. A possible explanation for that is the neglect of spatial correlations in the amount process. An appropriate method for taking spatial correlations into account, could be a Copula approach

On the clustering of winter storm loss events over Germany

During the last decades, several windstorm series hit Europe leading to large aggregated losses. Such storm series are examples of serial clustering of extreme cyclones, presenting a considerable risk for the insurance industry. Clustering of events and return periods of storm series for Germany are quantified based on potential losses using empirical models. Two reanalysis data sets and observations from German weather stations are considered for 30 winters. Histograms of events exceeding selected return levels (1-, 2- and 5-year) are derived. Return periods of historical storm series are estimated based on the Poisson and the negative binomial distributions. Over 4000 years of general circulation model (GCM) simulations forced with current climate conditions are analysed to provide a better assessment of historical return periods. Estimations differ between distributions, for example 40 to 65 years for the 1990 series. For such less frequent series, estimates obtained with the Poisson distribution clearly deviate from empirical data. The negative binomial distribution provides better estimates, even though a sensitivity to return level and data set is identified. The consideration of GCM data permits a strong reduction of uncertainties. The present results support the importance of considering explicitly clustering of losses for an adequate risk assessment for economical applications

The Trusted Server: A secure computational environment for privacy compliant evaluations on plain personal data

A growing framework of legal and ethical requirements limit scientific and commercial evaluation of personal data. Typically, pseudonymization, encryption, or methods of distributed computing try to protect individual privacy. However, computational infrastructures still depend on human system administrators. This introduces severe security risks and has strong impact on privacy: system administrators have unlimited access to the computers that they manage including encryption keys and pseudonymization-tables. Distributed computing and data obfuscation technologies reduce but do not eliminate the risk of privacy leakage by administrators. They produce higher implementation effort and possible data quality degradation. This paper proposes the Trusted Server as an alternative approach that provides a sealed and inaccessible computational environment in a cryptographically strict sense. During operation or by direct physical access to storage media, data stored and processed inside the Trusted Server can by no means be read, manipulated or leaked, other than by brute-force. Thus, secure and privacy-compliant data processing or evaluation of plain person-related data becomes possible even from multiple sources, which want their data kept mutually secret

Intestinal S100/Calgranulin Expression in Cats with Chronic Inflammatory Enteropathy and Intestinal Lymphoma.

Diagnosing chronic inflammatory enteropathies (CIE) in cats and differentiation from intestinal lymphoma (IL) using currently available diagnostics is challenging. Intestinally expressed S100/calgranulins, measured in fecal samples, appear to be useful non-invasive biomarkers for canine CIE but have not been evaluated in cats. We hypothesized S100/calgranulins to play a role in the pathogenesis of feline chronic enteropathies (FCE) and to correlate with clinical and/or histologic disease severity. This retrospective case-control study included patient data and gastrointestinal (GI) tissues from 16 cats with CIE, 8 cats with IL, and 16 controls with no clinical signs of GI disease. GI tissue biopsies were immunohistochemically stained using polyclonal α-S100A8/A9 and α-S100A12 antibodies. S100A8/A9+ and S100A12+ cells were detected in all GI segments, with few significant differences between CIE, IL, and controls and no difference between diseased groups. Segmental inflammatory lesions were moderately to strongly correlated with increased S100/calgranulin-positive cell counts. Clinical disease severity correlated with S100A12+ cell counts in cats with IL (ρ = 0.69, p = 0.042) and more severe diarrhea with colonic lamina propria S100A12+ cells with CIE (ρ = 0.78, p = 0.021) and duodenal S100A8/A9+ cells with IL (ρ = 0.71, p = 0.032). These findings suggest a role of the S100/calgranulins in the pathogenesis of the spectrum of FCE, including CIE and IL

Tissue S100/calgranulin expression and blood neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) in prostatic disorders in dogs.

BACKGROUND Prostatic carcinoma (PCA) is a rare but severe condition in dogs that is similar to the androgen-independent form of PCA in men. In contrast to humans, PCA is difficult to diagnose in dogs as reliable biomarkers, available for PCA screening in human medicine, are currently lacking in small animal oncology. Calprotectin (S100A8/A9) and S100A12 are Ca2+-binding proteins of the innate immune system with promising potential to distinguish malignant from benign urogenital tract conditions, similar to the blood neutrophil-to-lymphocyte-ratio (NLR). However, both have not yet been extensively investigated in dogs with PCA. Thus, this study aimed to evaluate the expression of the S100/calgranulins (calprotectin, S100A12, and their ratio [Cal-ratio]) in prostatic biopsies from nine dogs with PCA and compare them to those in dogs with benign prostatic lesions (eight dogs with prostatitis and ten dogs with benign prostatic hyperplasia [BPH]) as well as five healthy controls. In addition, blood NLRs were investigated in twelve dogs with PCA and 22 dogs with benign prostatic conditions. RESULTS Tissue S100A8/A9+ cell counts did not differ significantly between tissue from PCA and prostatitis cases (P = 0.0659) but were significantly higher in dogs with prostatitis than BPH (P = 0.0013) or controls (P = 0.0033). S100A12+ cell counts were significantly lower in PCA tissues than in prostatitis tissue (P = 0.0458) but did not differ compared to BPH tissue (P = 0.6499) or tissue from controls (P = 0.0622). Cal-ratios did not differ significantly among the groups but were highest in prostatitis tissues and significantly higher in those dogs with poor prostatitis outcomes than in patients that were still alive at the end of the study (P = 0.0455). Blood NLR strongly correlated with prostatic tissue S100A8/A9+ cell counts in dogs with PCA (ρ = 0.81, P = 0.0499) but did not differ among the disease groups of dogs. CONCLUSIONS This study suggests that the S100/calgranulins play a role in malignant (PCA) and benign (prostatic inflammation) prostatic conditions and supports previous results in lower urinary tract conditions in dogs. These molecules might be linked to the inflammatory environment with potential effects on the inflammasome. The blood NLR does not appear to aid in distinguishing prostatic conditions in dogs. Further investigation of the S100/calgranulin pathways and their role in modulation of tumor development, progression, and metastasis in PCA is warranted

Tissue S100/calgranulin expression and blood neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) in dogs with lower urinary tract urothelial carcinoma.

BACKGROUND Urothelial carcinoma (UC) is the most common neoplasm of the canine lower urinary tract, affecting approximately 2% of dogs. Elderly female patients of certain breeds are predisposed, and clinical signs of UC can easily be confused with urinary tract infection or urolithiasis. Diagnosis and treatment are challenging given the lack of disease-specific markers and treatments. The S100A8/A9 complex and S100A12 protein are Ca2+-binding proteins expressed by cells of the innate immune system and have shown promise as urinary screening markers for UC. The neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) can also aid in distinguishing certain neoplastic from inflammatory conditions. Our study aimed to evaluate the tissue expression of S100/calgranulins and the blood NLR in dogs with UC. Urinary bladder and/or urethral tissue samples from dogs with UC (n = 10), non-neoplastic inflammatory lesions (NNUTD; n = 6), and no histologic changes (n = 11) were evaluated using immunohistochemistry. Blood NLRs were analyzed in dogs with UC (n = 22) or NNUTD (n = 26). RESULTS Tissue S100A12-positive cell counts were significantly higher in dogs with lower urinary tract disease than healthy controls (P = 0.0267 for UC, P = 0.0049 for NNUTD), with no significant difference between UC and NNUTD patients. Tissue S100A8/A9-positivity appeared to be higher with NNUTD than UC, but this difference did not reach statistical significance. The S100A8/A9+-to-S100A12+ ratio was significantly decreased in neoplastic and inflamed lower urinary tract tissue compared to histologically normal specimens (P = 0.0062 for UC, P = 0.0030 for NNUTD). NLRs were significantly higher in dogs with UC than in dogs with NNUTD, and a cut-off NLR of ≤ 2.83 distinguished UC from NNUTD with 41% sensitivity and 100% specificity. Higher NLRs were also associated with a poor overall survival time (P = 0.0417). CONCLUSIONS These results confirm that the S100/calgranulins play a role in the immune response to inflammatory and neoplastic lower urinary tract diseases in dogs, but the tissue expression of these proteins appears to differ from their concentrations reported in urine samples. Further investigations of the S100/calgranulin pathways in UC and their potential as diagnostic or prognostic tools and potential therapeutic targets are warranted. The NLR as a routinely available marker might be a useful surrogate to distinguish UC from inflammatory conditions