In Romania’s elections, the Social-Liberal Union is likely to be the clear winner. But, President Băsescu may yet block Victor Ponta from returning as Prime Minister

Romanians go to the polls on Sunday for the country’s parliamentary elections. While the incumbent Prime Minister, Victor Ponta’s Social Liberal Union is widely tipped to win the election, Clara Volintiru writes that the president Traian Băsescu may yet be able to block Ponta from returning to office

It is unlikely that large numbers of Romanians will flock to the UK, but those that do migrate will benefit both countries

In December of this year, the UK’s restriction on the free movement for citizens of Bulgaria and Romania will be lifted. Many UK commentators have predicted a ‘flood’ of new migrants from the two countries as a result. Looking closely at Romania, Clara Volintiru finds that the present debate ignores the relatively positive economic situation in the country and the strong likelihood that any migrants to the UK will be temporary and well educated

The European Parliament elections in Romania will highlight the deep divisions within the country’s political system

The European Parliament elections in Romania will be held alongside a constitutional referendum, and ahead of Presidential elections in November. Clara Volintiru writes that while the elections will serve as a ‘dress rehearsal’ for the Presidential elections later in the year, they will potentially have wider significance for Romanian democracy. She argues that given the fragile governing coalition and continuous transformations of political parties within Romania, the results are likely to have a substantial impact on the country’s governing and electoral dynamics

After a period of political turmoil, Romania is building on its strengths and looking outwards for investment to stimulate growth.

Last year, Romanian politics was rocked with infighting between the country’s Prime Minister, Victor Ponta, and President, Traian Basescu. Clara Volintiru writes that the country has largely moved on from its political squabble, and is now positioning itself as an attractive target for investment compared with its neighbours in Central and Eastern Europe. Whether this strategy will bring the growth needed to restore Romanians’ confidence in their political leaders remains to be seen, however

Bucharest’s recent protests show that Romanians are beginning to embrace western styles of civic engagement.

Street protests have taken place in Bucharest since the start of September. Clara Volintiru writes that while the aims of the protesters have been focused on the fairly narrow issues of Bucharest’s stray dog population, and a controversial mining project, the real conflict is between competing identities. Both issues reflect strains between the old values Romanians held during the communist period, and new values such as environmental sustainability. She argues that the fact protesters are taking to the streets to argue in favour of new policies, rather than simply to attack political leaders, suggests Romanians are beginning to adopt western styles of civic engagement

Following a tense election campaign, Romania’s new President must work to heal the divisions within the country’s party system

On 16 November, Klaus Iohannis was elected as the next President of Romania, defeating the country’s Prime Minister, Victor Ponta, in what many observers saw as a surprise result. Clara Volintiru writes that Romanian politics is now at a crossroads, with deep divisions between parties and widespread mistrust of politicians likely to lead to a recalibration of the country’s party system

Towards a dynamic model of terrorist radicalization

This paper attempts to develop a theoretical assessment of how radicalization is reached. For this purpose, a Dynamic Model is proposed that accounts for the interaction between an individual's motivations and the determining factors of the surrounding context. It is a process-tracing analysis that emphasizes the specific elements of each phase of the process. This sequential understanding of both individual and aggregate (societal) radicalization is extremely useful in developing adapted, efficient counter-measures. The Dynamic Model of Radicalization is applied to the case studies of Chechnya and Kosovo and shows how, once established the overall causal mechanism that leads to radicalization in each case, we can observe more clearly the specific intervening factors that have lead to ultimately different outcomes. The proper understanding of the dynamics of radicalization is essential for developing effective policies to tackle with such issues as securing the EU border areas, and combating terrorism both at home, and abroad

Business Environment and Creative Industries in Romania

This article explores the curent situation of creative industries in Romania, a field still insufficiently investigated where entrepreneurship is increasingly present. In this sense, it addresses addresses two research objectives. Taking as reference the relevant academic literature, and based on the analysis of an original data-set regarding the composition and structure of creative industries in Bucharest, the article propose a conceptual framework addapted to the context of Romania for the study of the structural mechanisms that ties the economic model and the development of those economic activities labeled as creative. Our findings suggest that the development tendencies of variou creative specialisations have a massive growth potential in the future, impacting deeply the Romanian business environment and entrepreneurial perspectives. The paper furthers the understanding of the role and characteristics of creative activities in the economy and creates the premises for comparative research projects in the future

A new model of clientelism: political parties, public resources, and private contributors

The study of clientelism has pointed in the direction of a pyramid structure in which selective benefits are distributed with the help of brokers to individuals or groups in exchange for political support. This approach treats the resources aimed to enhance electoral mobilization as endogenous and fails to explain what happens when brokers have very low capacity. To address these problems this article proposes a bi-dimensional model of clientelism that emphasizes the role of exogenous resources. Accordingly, the vertical linkage between political parties and the electorate is complemented by a horizontal nexus between parties and private contributors. In an environment characterized by low internal resources, parties involve external actors to get the necessary money. To illustrate how this mechanism works we focus on Romania between 2008 and 2012, a crucial case for the study of clientelism

Taking stock of ‘election season’ in the Eastern Partnership countries

Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine have all held elections in October and November. Clara Volintiru and Sergiu Gherghina write that while the elections broadly represented a success story for the EU’s efforts to promote democratic values in the region, they also showcased the continued importance of clientelistic practices in the three states