Modeling of the trajectory of the level fluctuations in Lake Naroch

Кирвель Иван И.; Волчек Александр Александрович; Парфомук Сергей Иванович. Моделирование траектории колебаний уровня озера НарочьAs a result of the conducted investigations of the level fluctuations in Lake Naroch the initial data are divided into 3 components: a polynomial regression that makes it possible to find out an independent on time Law of trajectory, a periodic component of sinusoidal type and a residual sequence of independent random quantities. Modeling of the trajectory fluctuations is based on the deterministic part, consisting of the regression of the 8th order and periodic component, and also the random part, consisting of independent equally distributed quantities. Using this model it can be modeled the trajectory of the level fluctuations in Lake Naroch. The modeled trajectory by 200 years long demonstrated the probability of exceeding of maximum annual level, equal 1 per cent

Evaluation of the influence of large-scale melioration of the Belarusian Polesie on the thermal regime of soils

А. А. Волчек, В. В. Борушко. Оценка влияния крупномасштабной мелиорации белорусского полесьяThe article presents the results of modelling of heat distribution in the soil at different dehumidification standards. The method of mathematical modelling for obtaining the temperature profile of soils, which allowed to estimate the change of temperature and thermal regimes of the drained lands of Belarusian Polesie, has been proposed. The results obtained help to ensure optimal microclimatic conditions for the use of reclaimed land in agriculture

Пакет прикладных программ для определения расчетных характеристик речного стока.

Разработан пакет прикладных программ по определению расчетных характеристик речного стока, состоящий из трех программных комплексов. Первый комплекс отвечает за управление банком данных речных водосборов Беларуси. Второй комплекс позволяет в автоматизированном режиме решать ряд гидрологических и водохозяйственных задач. Третий комплекс предназначен для моделирования колебаний речного стока с учетом различных сценариев развития климата. Созданный пакет отвечает основным требованиям, предъявляемым к современным ГИС, содержит подробное руководство пользователя и может быть использован при решении ряда гидрологических задач. = The application package that consists of three program complexes for definition of characteristics of the river runoff is created. The first complex is responsible management of a database of river basins of Belarus. The second complex allows solving many hydrological and water-economic problems in the automated mode. The third complex is intended for modelling fluctuations of the river runoff for various variants of climate development. The created package corresponds to the basic requirements that showed to modern geographical information systems, containsthe detailed user's guide and can be used for the decision of various hydrological problems

Пространственно-временная изменчивость поверхностного стока рек Беларуси

Волчек А. А., Парфомук С. И., Сидак С. В. Пространственно-временная изменчивость поверхностного стока рек БеларусиAn assessment of changes in the surface river runoff of Belarus in modern conditions is given. Significant negative trends were found for the series of the percentage of surface runoff in the total volume of annual runoff for the period 1948−2017. The greatest decrease in surface runoff is observed in the south of Belarus. The degree of synchronicity of fluctuations of the long-term surface runoff of large rivers of Belarus is estimated. A modern map of the average annual modules of the surface river runoff distribution in Belarus has been obtained

Floods on the territory of Polesie

International Conference on Efficient & Sustainable Water Systems Management toward Worth Living Development, 2nd EWaS 2016The article presents the analysis of the formation of floods in Polesie on the r. Pripyat during the period of instrumental observations. Polesie is a unique physiographic region, located on the territory of four countries: Belarus, Poland, Russia and Ukraine. The total area is about 130 thousand km^2. The Pripyat, the main river of Polesie, is an average river according to the European scale. The length of the r. Pripyat is 761 km; the catchment area is 173.7 thousand km^2. The article describes the most outstanding floods. The basic measures to reduce the negative effects of floods and priorities for floods research in Polesie are outlined

The climate change impact on the hydrological regime of the rivers in Belarus

А. А. Волчек, С. В. Сидак, С. И. Парфомук, Н.Н. Шешко. ВЛИЯНИЕ КЛИМАТИЧЕСКИХ ИЗМЕНЕНИЙ НА ГИДРОЛОГИЧЕСКИЙ РЕЖИМ РЕК БЕЛАРУСИThe article evaluates the changes in the parameters of the annual runoff, the maximum spring flood runoff and the main runoff-forming factors for the period 1988-2018 in relation to the period 1949-1987. The observed over the past decades climatic changes significantly change the situation of the spatio-temporal variability of the maximum runoff. Changes in the annual runoff for most catchments of Belarus are statistically insignificant. The main climatic factors determining the spring flood runoff are precipitation during the winter and spring periods, and the air temperature of the winter period. Taking into account the multi model ensemble of four climate change scenarios, the forecast estimates of the annual and maximum runoff for the period up to 2035 are obtained

Подходы к оценке социально-экономических рисков, вызванных речным паводком

Волчек А. А., Костюк Д. А., Петров Д. О., Шешко Н. Н. Подходы к оценке социально-экономических рисков, вызванных речным паводкомThe issues of forecasting damage caused by flooding of anthropogenically transformed territories in a river floodplain of a plain type are considered based on the case of the floodplain of the Pripyat River. A method of spatial analysis of the level of the territory usage and the depth/duration of flooding is proposed, the results of which are applicable in preparation of maps of the socio-economic risks associated with flooding, and in planning anti-flood measures

Floods on the territory of Polesie

International Conference on Efficient & Sustainable Water Systems Management toward Worth Living Development, 2nd EWaS 2016The article presents the analysis of the formation of floods in Polesie on the r. Pripyat during the period of instrumental observations. Polesie is a unique physiographic region, located on the territory of four countries: Belarus, Poland, Russia and Ukraine. The total area is about 130 thousand km^2. The Pripyat, the main river of Polesie, is an average river according to the European scale. The length of the r. Pripyat is 761 km; the catchment area is 173.7 thousand km^2. The article describes the most outstanding floods. The basic measures to reduce the negative effects of floods and priorities for floods research in Polesie are outlined

Optimal strategy for water protection activity in regions

А. А. Волчек, П. В. Шведовский, Л. В. Образцов, Л. Г. Срывкина, Е. И. Кисель. ОСОБЕННОСТИ ОПТИМАЛЬНОЙ СТРАТЕГИИ ВОДООХРАННОЙ ДЕЯТЕЛЬНОСТИ В РЕГИОНАХThe methodology for constructing mathematical models to select the optimal strategy for water protection activity in the regions and for water consumers is considered. At the same time, the water environment is considered as a whole with all technical, environmental, economic and other problems associated with it. Particular attention is paid to linking and optimizing investments in water protection measures with maximizing the growth rates of the regional economy in the conditions of a given dynamics of water pollution at the planned growth rates of the economy. An analysis of mathematical models of the optimal strategy for water protection activities at the level of water consumer warnings is also given

АЛГОРИТМ ВЫЧИСЛЕНИЯ ГРАНИЦ ОБЛАСТИ ЗАТОПЛЕНИЯ ДЛЯ РЕЧНОЙ СЕТИ С МОДЕЛИРОВАНИЕМ РАСПРОСТРАНЕНИЯ ВОДЫ ПО РАСТРОВОМУ ПРЕДСТАВЛЕНИЮ РЕЛЬЕФА

The calculation algorithm is presented for the river network inundation based on the modeling of the water front spread over the raster terrain model. A specific of its implementation is reviewed related to the data representation model, which allows consistent calculation for the river tributaries. The algorithm of primary approbation carried out on EU flooding data is discussed.Представлен алгоритм расчета области затопления речной сети паводками, основанный на моделировании распространения фронта воды по растровой модели рельефа местности. Рассмотрены особенности реализации, касающиеся представления данных, позволяющего осуществлять согласованный расчет для притоков речной сети. Анализируются результаты первичной апробации на данных паводка, произошедшего в ЕС в июне 2013 г