Exploring low-carbon futures: A web service approach to linking diverse climate-energy-economy models

© 2019 by the authors. The use of simulation models is essential when exploring transitions to low-carbon futures and climate change mitigation and adaptation policies. There are many models developed to understand socio-environmental processes and interactions, and analyze alternative scenarios, but hardly one single model can serve all the needs. There is much expectation in climate-energy research that constructing new purposeful models out of existing models used as building blocks can meet particular needs of research and policy analysis. Integration of existing models, however, implies sophisticated coordination of inputs and outputs across different scales, definitions, data and software. This paper presents an online integration platform which links various independent models to enhance their scope and functionality. We illustrate the functionality of this web platform using several simulation models developed as standalone tools for analyzing energy, climate and economy dynamics. The models differ in levels of complexity, assumptions, modeling paradigms and programming languages, and operate at different temporal and spatial scales, from individual to global. To illustrate the integration process and the internal details of our integration framework we link an Integrated Assessment Model (GCAM), a Computable General Equilibrium model (EXIOMOD), and an Agent Based Model (BENCH). This toolkit is generic for similar integrated modeling studies. It still requires extensive pre-integration assessment to identify the ‘appropriate’ models and links between them. After that, using the web service approach we can streamline module coupling, enabling interoperability between different systems and providing open access to information for a wider community of users

Ecosystem and human health assessment to define environmental management strategies: The case of long-term human impacts on an Arctic lake

Abstract There are rich deposits of mineral and fossil natural resources in the Arctic, which make this region very attractive for extracting industries. Their operations have immediate and vast consequences for ecological systems, which are particularly vulnerable in this region. We are developing a management strategy for Arctic watersheds impacted by industrial production. The case study is Lake Imandra watershed (Murmansk oblast, Russia) that has exceptionally high levels of economic development and large numbers of people living there. We track the impacts of toxic pollution on ecosystem health and then -human health. Three periods are identified: (a) natural, pre-industrial state; (b) disturbed, under rapid economic development; and (c) partial recovery, during recent economic meltdown. The ecosystem is shown to transform into a qualitatively new state, which is still different from the original natural state, even after toxic loadings have substantially decreased. Fish disease where analyzed to produce and integral evaluation of ecosystem health. Accumulation of heavy metals in fish is correlated with etiology of many diseases. Dose-effect relationships are between integral water quality indices and ecosystem health indicators clearly demonstrates that existing water quality standards adopted in Russia are inadequate for Arctic regions. Health was also poor for people drinking water from the Lake. Transport of heavy metals from drinking water, into human organs, and their effect on liver and kidney diseases shows the close connection between ecosystem and human health. A management system is outlined that is based on feedback from indices of ecosystem and human health and control over economic production and/or the amount of toxic loading produced. We argue that prospects for implementation of such a system are quite bleak at this time, and that more likely we will see a continued depopulation of these Northern regions

Partial level density of the n-quasiparticle excitations in the nuclei of the 39< A <201 region

Level density and radiative strength functions are obtained from the analysis of two-step cascades intensities following the thermal neutrons capture. The data on level density are approximated by the sum of the partial level densities corresponding to n quasiparticles excitation. The most probable values of the collective enhancement factor of the level density are found together with the thresholds of the next Cooper nucleons pair breaking. These data allow one to calculate the level density of practically any nucleus in given spin window in the framework of model concepts, taking into account all known nuclear excitation types. The presence of an approximation results discrepancy with theoretical statements specifies the necessity of rather essentially developing the level density models. It also indicates the possibilities to obtain the essentially new information on nucleon correlation functions of the excited nucleus from the experiment.Comment: 29 pages, 8 figures, 2 table

Подсистема автономного программно-аппаратного комплекса для индуктивного долгосрочного прогноза осредненных значений метеопараметров

The research of the inductive method of long-term (forestalling to 0,5 year) prognosis of average decade air s temperature on the basis of principle of analogies was executed and it s sufficient was shown. The research of the offered approach was also conducted: in the base of spatial models without principle of analogies; in the polynomial harmonic base; the analysis of middle quality of the inductive prognostic method for cases of the analogue principle usage and without it

Gamma-ray strength function and pygmy resonance in rare earth nuclei

The gamma-ray strength function for gamma energies in the 1-7 MeV region has been measured for 161,162-Dy and 171,172-Yb using the (3-He,alpha gamma) reaction. Various models are tested against the observed gamma-ray strength functions. The best description is based on the Kadmenskii, Markushev and Furman E1 model with constant temperature and the Lorentzian M1 model. A gamma-ray bump observed at E_gamma=3 MeV is interpreted as the so-called pygmy resonance, which has also been observed previously in (n,gamma) experiments. The parameters for this resonance have been determined and compared to the available systematics.Comment: 11 pages, including 4 figures and 2 table

Understanding the Low-Energy Enhancement of the γ\gamma-ray Strength Function of 56^{56}Fe

A model-independent technique was used to determine the $\gamma$-ray Strength Function ($\gamma$SF) of $^{56}$Fe down to $\gamma$-ray energies less than 1 MeV for the first time with GRETINA using the $(p,p')$ reaction at 16 MeV. No difference was observed in the energy dependence of the $\gamma$SF built on $2^{+}$ and $4^{+}$ final states, supporting the Brink hypothesis. In addition, angular distribution and polarization measurements were performed. The angular distributions are consistent with dipole radiation. The polarization results show a small bias towards magnetic character in the region of the enhancement