A Quarterly Post-World War II Real GDP Series for New Zealand

There are no official quarterly real GDP estimates for New Zealand for the period prior to 1977. We develop a seasonally adjusted series for 1947q2 to 2006q2, by linking quarterly observations from two recent official series to temporally disaggregated observations for an earlier time period. Annual real GDP series are disaggregated, using the information from two quarterly diffusion indexes, developed by Haywood and Campbell (1976). Three econometric models are used: the Chow and Lin (1971) model that disaggregates the level of GDP, and the Fernández (1981) and Litterman (1983) models that disaggregate changes in GDP. Statistical properties of the series are evaluated, and movements in the new series are benchmarked against qualitative research findings from New Zealand's post-WWII economic history. Our preferred quarterly series is based on results generated from the Chow-Lin model.Quarterly real GDP series; temporal disaggregation; business cycles; New Zealand

WOULD ADOPTING THE US DOLLAR HAVE LED TO IMPROVED INFLATION, OUTPUT AND TRADE BALANCES FOR NEW ZEALAND IN THE 1990s?

Deterministic simulations with the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s core FPS model show how New Zealand’s broad macroeconomic environment might have evolved over the 1990s, if a US nominal yield curve and US TWI exchange rate movements under a common currency arrangement had been experienced.Relatively looser monetary conditions would have prevailed, and led to modest short-run output gains, greater excess demand pressures, noticeably higher CPI inflation rates over the whole of the 1990s, and less favourable trade balance outcomes, especially for the late 1990s.These macroeconomic outcomes are overall less favourable than those obtained from simulating the equivalent Australian monetary conditions.Common currency; monetary policy; deterministic simulation; New Zealand; Australia; United States.

Would Adopting the US Dollar Have Led to Improved Inflation, Output and Trade Balances for New Zealand in the 1990s?

Deterministic simulations with the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's core FPS model show how New Zealand's broad macroeconomic environment might have evolved over the 1990s, if a US nominal yield curve and US TWI exchange rate movements under a common currency arrangement had been experienced. Relatively looser monetary conditions would have prevailed, and led to modest short-run output gains, greater excess demand pressures, noticeably higher CPI inflation rates over the whole of the 1990s, and less favourable trade balance outcomes, especially for the late 1990s. These macroeconomic outcomes are overall less favourable than those obtained from simulating the equivalent Australian monetary conditions.Common currency; monetary policy; deterministic simulation; New Zealand; Australia; United States

Assessing Structural Adjustment and Economic Reform: The Case of New Zealand

Against the background of a set of macroeconomic and microeconomic problems which were diagnosed as more deepset and wide-ranging than for other developed economies, New Zealand has experienced more than a decade of significant economic reform and structural change. During this time, many other countries have been reforming and adapting to varying degrees. New Zealand has made very significant progress over the 1984-1997 time period in most key macroeconomic and many microeconomic areas, but still faces major challenges of sustainability and improvement on almost all fronts. The need for the latter is due variously to the relative ease with which macroeconomic imbalances can re-emerge under lax policy settings, the still relatively inconclusive evidence on the sustainability of improved economic and productivity growth performance, a widespread desire to reduce the NAIRU further, and the likelihood that in recent years other countries' reforms have eroded a number of the comparative advantages New Zealand had achieved in key areas. In the absence of a further major crisis, another 'big bang' sequence of reforms seems unlikely, especially under New Zealand's current MMP electoral system. But the international and domestic economic evidence is certainly consistent with considerable ongoing adjustment being required

Regional business cycles in New Zealand: Do they exist? What might drive them?

We use National Bank of New Zealand Regional Economic Activity data, to identify and characterise classical business cycle turning points, for New Zealand's 14 regions and aggregate New Zealand activity. Using Concordance statistic measures, logistic model and GMM estimation methods, meaningful regional business cycles have been identified and a number of significant associations established. All regions exhibit cyclical asymmetry for both durations and amplitudes, and synchronisations between aggregate NZ activity and each region are contemporaneous. The regional cycles rarely die of old age but are terminated by particular events. The regions most highly synchronised with the NZ activity cycle are Auckland, Canterbury, and Nelson-Marlborough; those least so are Gisborne and Southland. Noticeably strong co-movements are evident for certain regions. Geographical proximity matters, and unusually dry conditions can be associated with cyclical downturns in certain regions. There is no discernable evidence of association with net immigration movements, and no significant evidence of regional cycle movements being associated with real national house price cycles. The agriculture-based nature of the New Zealand economy is highlighted by the strong influence of external economic shocks on rural economic performance. In particular, there is considerable evidence of certain regional cycles being associated with movements in New Zealand's aggregate terms of trade, real prices of milksolids, real dairy land prices and total rural land prices.Classical business cycle; Turning Points; Regional business cycles; Concordance statistics; New Zealand

The Ups and Downs of New Zealand House Prices

This paper identifies the expansion and contraction phases of New Zealand's national and regional house prices, by employing techniques typically used to study cycles in real activity, the so-called Classical cycle dating method. We then enquire into the nature of the cycles, addressing five questions: (1) What are the New Zealand and regional house price cycles, and do the regional cycles differ from the national cycle?; (2) What are the typical durations, magnitudes and shapes of these house price cycles?; (3) Do cycles in house prices match cycles in economic activity, at either national or regional levels?; (4) Does it matter which of the two main sets of house price series are used? i.e. Quotable Value New Zealand (QVNZ) or Real Estate Institute of New Zealand (REINZ)?; and (5) Does the sample period matter? Findings are evaluated in the context of work by Grimes, Aitken and Kerr (2004), and Hall and McDermott (2005). Avenues for further research are suggested.House price cycles; regional business cycles; classical business cycle; New Zealand

APPLICATION OF A DYNAMIC PANEL DATA ESTIMATOR TO CROSS-COUNTRY COFFEE DEMAND: A TALE OF TWO ERAS

We estimate price and income elasticities of demand for green coffee beans in panels of up to 40 countries, both during and after the operation of export quotas under International Coffee Agreements. The dynamic panel estimator proposed in Han and Phillips (2007) is used because it is a consistent estimator, for any length of panel, regardless of the presence of unit roots. Dynamic panel data models, of any type, do not seem to have been previously applied to coffee demand. We find evidence of a concave relationship between income and coffee consumption for countries which are members of the International Coffee Organization, but no evidence of such a relationship for other countries. A further conclusion is that measures which increase the price of coffee beans can be expected to have little effect on coffee sales.Coffee Demand, Dynamic Panel Data, International Coffee Organization

Regional Business Cycles in New Zealand: Do they exist? What might drive them?

We use National Bank of New Zealand Regional Economic Activity data, to identify and characterise classical business cycle turning points, for New Zealand’s 14 regions and aggregate New Zealand activity. Using Concordance statistic measures, logistic model and GMM estimation methods, meaningful regional business cycles have been identified and a number of significant associations established. All regions exhibit cyclical asymmetry for both durations and amplitudes, and synchronisations between aggregate NZ activity and each region are contemporaneous. The regional cycles rarely die of old age but are terminated by particular events. The regions most highly synchronised with the NZ activity cycle are Auckland, Canterbury, and Nelson-Marlborough; those least so are Gisborne and Southland. Noticeably strong co-movements are evident for certain regions. Geographical proximity matters, and unusually dry conditions can be associated with cyclical downturns in certain regions. There is no discernable evidence of association with net immigration movements, and no significant evidence of regional cycle movements being associated with real house price cycles. The agriculture-based nature of the New Zealand economy is highlighted by the strong influence of external economic shocks on rural economic performance. In particular, there is considerable evidence of certain regional cycles being associated with movements in New Zealand’s aggregate terms of trade, real prices of milksolids, real dairy land prices and total rural land prices. JEL Classification: C22, E32, R11, R12, R15 Keywords: Classical business cycle; Turning Points; Regional business cycles; Concordance statistics; New Zealand

Regional business cycles in New Zealand:Do they exist? What might drive them?

We use National Bank of New Zealand Regional Economic Activity data, to identify and characterise classical business cycle turning points, for New Zealand’s 14 regions and aggregate New Zealand activity. Using Concordance statistic measures, logistic model and GMM estimation methods, meaningful regional business cycles have been identified and a number of significant associations established. All regions exhibit cyclical asymmetry for both durations and amplitudes, and synchronisations between aggregate NZ activity and each region are contemporaneous. The regional cycles rarely die of old age but are terminated by particular events. The regions most highly synchronised with the NZ activity cycle are Auckland, Canterbury, and Nelson- Marlborough; those least so are Gisborne and Southland. Noticeably strong co-movements are evident for certain regions. Geographical proximity matters, and unusually dry conditions can be associated with cyclical downturns in certain regions. There is no discernable evidence of association with net immigration movements, and no significant evidence of regional cycle movements being associated with real national house price cycles. The agriculture-based nature of the New Zealand economy is highlighted by the strong influence of external economic shocks on rural economic performance. In particular, there is considerable evidence of certain regional cycles being associated with movements in New Zealand’s aggregate terms of trade, real prices of milksolids, real dairy land prices and total rural land prices.Classical business cycle; Turning Points; Regional business cycles; Concordance statistics; New Zealand

New Zealand's Current Account Deficit: Analysis based on the Intertemporal Optimisation Approach

New Zealand's Current Account of the Balance of Payments has been persistently in deficit since the early 1970s and increased markedly during the late 1990s. Is this a cause for significant concern? This paper tackles this question by evaluating New Zealand's external solvency, the degree of optimality of the intertemporal consumption smoothing through its current account, and whether its international financial capital flows have been used in an optimal (consumption-smoothing) fashion. We carry out statistical tests in relation to external solvency. We also estimate a "benchmark" consumption-smoothing component for its current account based on an intertemporal optimisation model in order to carry out tests of the optimality of the size and volatility of the current account. We could not reject the hypotheses that New Zealand's current account was consistent with optimal smoothing, that the external solvency condition has been satisfied, and that there is "no excess volatility" in international financial capital flows.current account; intertemporal; consumption-smoothing; New Zealand