Investigating zero transmission of HIV in the MSM population: a UK modelling case study

Abstract Background UNAIDS 90-90-90 goals for HIV have been surpassed in the UK, with focus now moving to ending transmission by 2030. The concept of zero transmission is complex and many factors can influence transmission. We aimed to investigate how the target of zero transmission might be reached in the UK. Methods We developed a de novo Markov state transition open cohort model of HIV with a 50-year time horizon, which models six key screening, treatment and prevention parameters, including treatment-as-prevention (TasP) and pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP). We studied the anticipated HIV epidemic trajectory over time in men who have sex with men (MSM), with and without changing the six key parameters, defining zero transmission as a 60% reduction in incidence compared with 2010 incidence. Results Zero transmission in the MSM population was not achieved within the model’s time horizon in our base case scenario, when the six key parameters were set to their 2019 values. Several future scenarios were explored, including a combination approach to preventing HIV transmission through increasing five key parameter values and considering three different TasP values; zero transmission was achieved by 2030 in the scenario where TasP was increased from its current level of 97–99%, avoiding 48,969 new HIV cases over the time horizon and reducing the lifetime risk of acquiring HIV for HIV-negative MSM not using PrEP from 13.65 to 7.53%. Conclusions Zero transmission in the UK MSM population can be reached by the target year of 2030 with bold changes to HIV policy. A combination approach such as the UK Government’s ‘Towards Zero’ Action plan, impacting multiple policies and including an increase in TasP, has the potential to achieve meaningful reductions in HIV transmission and meet this ambitious goal

A cost-of-illness analysis of the economic burden of obsessive-compulsive disorder in the United Kingdom

Objectives: Obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) is a chronic and debilitating psychiatric condition, with diagnosed patients typically experiencing moderate or severe symptoms. This study evaluated the cost-of-illness (CoI) of OCD in the UK, capturing the annual costs accrued to the National Health Service (NHS) and Personal Social Services (PSS), people with OCD, caregivers and society. Methods: The UK OCD population was estimated and stratified by age group (children, adults, elderly), symptom severity (mild, moderate, severe) and treatment received (including no treatment). Costs for each subpopulation were estimated through a prevalence-based approach. Cost inputs were sourced from national databases, while additional inputs were informed by literature searches or expert clinician opinion. Scenario analyses explored other factors including comorbid depression treatment and presenteeism. Results: The base-case analysis estimated a total annual CoI of £378,356,004 to the NHS, rising to £5,095,759,464 when a societal perspective was considered. The annual cost of care per person with OCD increased with severity (mild: £174; moderate: £365; severe: £902) due to increasing healthcare resource utilisation. The largest contributor to healthcare costs was cognitive behavioural therapy, while societal costs were driven by lost productivity through absenteeism. The base-case results likely underestimated the true economic burden of OCD; including comorbid depression led to a 132% increase in treatment costs, while presenteeism in people with OCD and lost productivity in caregivers amplified indirect costs. Conclusions: The economic burden of OCD in the UK is substantial and extends beyond direct treatment costs, highlighting a need for research into alternative treatments with greater efficacy