From Property Companies to Real Estate Investment Trusts: The Impact of Economic and Property Factors in the UK Commercial Property Returns

This study investigates cross-sectionally the impact of economic and property factors on the returns of UK property companies and real estate investment trusts. By applying structural time-series modelling and the Kalman Filter to obtain unexpected changes or innovations in selected economic and property variables it was found for the sample period analysed that economic and property variables influence commercial property returns in the UK. It was also found that by converting into REITS property companies quickly acquired hybrid features of securitised and property backed assets.Keywords: REITS, commercial, property returns, innovations, Kalman Filter, crosssection, panel data, innovations, unexpected changes.

SURPLUS-VALUE AND AGGREGATE CONCENTRATION IN THE UK ECONOMY, 1987-2009

This paper examines the movements in the Marxian surplus-value rate using a Quantitative Marxist methodology. It examines the relationship between surplus-value and the degree of monopoly power in the UK economy using quarterly data and a proxy for aggregate concentration — the ratio of market capitalisation in FTSE100 firms to market capitalisation in FTSE All Share firms. Two other forces are considered: (i) the size of the “reserve army” of the unemployed; (ii) working class militancy. Our results suggest that increases in the “reserve army” influence the surplus-value rate positively, and that working class militancy is negatively related to changes in the surplus-value rate, indicating that strike action in this period is largely a defensive measure by workers. Finally, our data suggests that rising aggregate concentration (when measured by market capitalisation) exerts a profound, significant and positive effect on the rate of surplus-value.Surplus-value, Monopoly Capital, Aggregate Concentration

Generating Innovations in Economic Variables

Stock prices should respond only to unpredictable components of economic news (‘innovations’) in efficient markets. While innovations used in empirical investigations of the economic underpinnings of stock market risk should at least satisfy this basic requirement this may not guarantee satisfactory research results. Three methods of generating innovations are evaluated for a variety of economic variables. First differencing produces unsatisfactory serially correlated innovations in general. Both ARIMA and Kalman Filter innovations are unpredictable, but in a further evaluation the component scores from Principal Components Analysis are regressed against economic innovations using PcGets. The results are far less noisy when Kalman Filter innovations are used.Macroeconomic variables, Innovations, stock returns, principal components analysis

Changes in the risk structure of stock returns. Consumer Confidence and the Dotcom Bubble.

Changes in the risk structure of stock returns may sometimes be very revealing. We examine economic variables that help explain principal components in UK stock returns, 01/1985 to 12/2001. The loading pattern on explanatory variables for the first component in a ‘bubble’ period is distinctive and consistent with a bubble/crash market. The second component shows a loading pattern on a Consumer Confidence variable in a pre-bubble period only. We observe apparently systematic changes in the structure of risk, and conjecture that Consumer Confidence captures a change in market sentiment that could be a signal for the evolution of stock prices.Macroeconomic variables, consumer confidence, stock returns, principal components analysis

The effects of economic variables in the UK stock market

This thesis examines the links between economic time-series innovations and statistical risk factors in the UK stock market using principal components analysis (PCA) and the general-to-specific (Gets) approach to econometric modelling. A multi-factor risk structure for the UK stock market is assumed, and it is found that the use of economic 'news' (innovations), PCA, the Gets approach, and different stock grouping criteria helps to explain the relationships between stock returns and economic variables. The Kalman Filter appears to be more appropriate than first-differencing or ARIMA modelling as a technique for estimating innovations when applying the Gets approach. Different combinations of economic variables appear to underpin the risk structure of stock returns for different sub-samples. Indications of a possible influence of firm size are found in principal components when different stock sorting criteria are used, but more definite conclusions require simultaneous sorting by market value and beta. Overall it appears that the major factor affecting the identification of specific explanatory economic variables across different sub-samples is the general economic context of investment. The influence of firm size on stock returns seems in particular to be highly sensitive to the wider economic context. There is an apparent instability in the economic underpinnings of the risk structure of stock returns (as measured by principal components) that might also be a result of changing economic conditions

Frontiers of Commercial Real Estate Portfolio Performance:Are Sector-Region Efficient Diversification Strategies a Myth or Reality?

This paper departs from the traditional optimisation methods used to evaluate portfolio performance. Rather, the Stochastic Frontier Analysis approach is used to econometrically determine the benchmark real estate portfolio frontier and subsequently assess the gains from diversifying real estate portfolios along regional and sectoral dimensions in the UK. Portfolio specific inefficiency measures are obtained which indicate whether a portfolio is efficiently diversified and therefore places on the benchmark frontier and if not, the degree to which performance can be improved is quantified. Portfolio specific efficiencies average at 85%-91%, indicating scope to further improve performance. Further, diversification be it on a sectoral or regional dimension, contributes to significantly lower variability in portfolio efficiencies

Changes in the risk structure of stock returns: consumer confidence and the dotcom bubble

Changes in the risk structure of stock returns may sometimes be very revealing. We examine economic variables that help explain principal components in UK stock returns, 01/1985 to 12/2001. The loading pattern on explanatory variables for the first component in a ‘bubble’ period is distinctive and consistent with a bubble/crash market. The second component shows a loading pattern on a Consumer Confidence variable in a pre-bubble period only. We observe apparently systematic changes in the structure of risk, and conjecture that Consumer Confidence captures a change in market sentiment that could be a signal for the evolution of stock prices

High frequency trading, price discovery and market efficiency in the FTSE100

The file attached to this record is the author's final peer reviewed version.This study examines the role of high frequency trading in price discovery and efficiency in the FTSE100 index tick changes. Using a unique data set, we find that there is no random walk when investors extract information at a millisecond to a second. Further analysis provides evidence that the information cannot be extracted by investors at frequencies starting from 10 minutes. This is consistent with the view that the market already experiences a random walk, which contributes to the weak form of market efficiency

Coesão partidária : o caso do Partido da Social Democracia Brasileira na Câmara dos Deputados

Trabalho de conclusão de curso (graduação)—Universidade de Brasília, Instituto de Ciência Política, 2016.A literatura da Ciência Política brasileira, ao analisar o Poder Legislativo, leva em conta a disciplina partidária para analisar a unidade dos partidos políticos. É, no entanto, necessário fazer uma diferenciação entre disciplina partidária e coesão partidária, dois elementos que constituem a unidade partidária. O intuito deste trabalho é fazer uma investigação da coesão ideológica da bancada do Partido da Social Democracia Brasileira na Câmara dos Deputados, objetivando fornecer melhores ferramentas de análise para as relações institucionais no Legislativo brasileiro

Latin-American Stock Market Dynamics and Co-movement

The file attached to this record is the author's final peer reviewed version. The Publisher's final version can be found by following the DOI link.With the economic relevance of the relationships among emerging and frontier equity markets becoming increasingly significant, this paper investigates co-movement among returns from six Latin-American stock markets [Mexico (BMV), Brazil (BOVESPA), Chile (IPSA), Peru (IGBVL), Argentina (MERVAL), Venezuela (IBVC)] and also with the U.S. S&P 500 Composite index. In part, we employ Principal Component Analyses, to account for the maximum portion of the variance present in the returns by examining rolling windows with 8,6,4,3,2, and 1-year periods. We also investigate the incidence of structural breaks and co-movement, aiming to uncover the dynamics in co-movements among these markets. We find evidence of high co-movement among the Latin-American markets, and also with the U.S. markets. Venezuela and Mexico’s equity markets are at the extremes. However, our results do not corroborate findings of clear evidence, reported in previous studies, of the U.S. having a leading role in the region