Mobilizing climate information for decision-making in Africa: contrasting user-centered and knowledge-centered approaches

This study examined ways in which climate information was mobilized for use under Future Climate for Africa (FCFA), an applied research program to improve the use of climate information to support medium-term (5–40 years) policies and planning in sub-Saharan Africa. Past research has underscored the interdependent relationship between user engagement and knowledge mobilization in effective climate knowledge uptake. The study used a document analysis of 46 program ou tputs and semi-structured interviews with 13 FCFA researchers to contrast user-centered and knowledge-centered approaches to effectively mobilize climate information uptake for use. A total of 20 knowledge mobilization tools and approaches were identified across the program and analyzed. This analysis reveals a complex interplay between user engagement and knowledge mobilization processes, including the strategic or flexible use and re-use of knowledge products as the user engagement process evolved. These findings have important implications for future programmatic design and planning in promoting engagement and mobilization approaches that can contribute to long-term policy and decision-making

Co-production: learning from contexts

Given that climate change is a complex, systemic risk, addressing it requires new knowledge. One way of generating such new knowledge is through co-production, or collaborative development by a range of stakeholders with diverse backgrounds embedded in trans-disciplinary processes. This chapter reflects on emerging experiences of co-producing decision-relevant climate information to enable climate-resilient planning and adaptation to climate change in Africa. It outlines principles that have emerged and evolved through experiential learning from a wide range of co-production processes in Africa. It also uses case study experience from various contexts to highlight some of the more contextual challenges to co-production such as trust, power and knowledge systems and institutional factors (mandates, roles and incentives) and illustrates ways that trans-disciplinary co-production has addressed these challenges to mainstream a response to the climate challenge

New partnerships for co-delivery of the 2030 agenda for sustainable development

Partnerships have become a corner stone of contemporary research that recognizes working across disciplines and co-production with intended users as essential to enabling sustainable resilience-building. Furthermore, research that addresses sustainable development challenges brings an urgent need to reflect on the ways that partnerships are supported, and for the disaster risk management and resilience communities, efforts to support realization of the wider 2030 Agenda for sustainable development bring particular pressures. In November 2019, the UK Disasters Research Group (DRG) brought together a number of key stakeholders focused on disaster risk, resilience, and sustainability research relevant to Official Development Assistance to consider how fit for purpose existing partnership models are for the pace of change required to deliver the priorities of the wider 2030 Agenda. Participants were invited to discuss how research partnerships across three levels (individual and project-based; national and institutional; and international) could be improved based on elements that facilitate robust partnerships and learning from aspects that hinder them. From the discussions, participants emphasized the importance of effective communication mechanisms in building partnerships, co-designing projects, and establishing shared objectives. Enhanced approaches to addressing equitable partnerships and funding more substantive timelines will be key to responding to the challenges of the 2030 Agenda

A modelling-chain linking climate science and decision-makers for future urban flood management in West Africa

Intensification of the hydrological cycle resulting from climate change in West Africa poses significant risks for the region’s rapidly urbanising cities, but limited research on flood risk has been undertaken at the urban domain scale. Furthermore, conventional climate models are unable to realistically represent the type of intense storms which dominate the West African monsoon. This paper presents a decision-first framing of climate research in co-production of a climate-hydrology-flooding modelling chain, linking scientists working on state-of-the-art regional climate science with decision-makers involved in city planning for future urban flood management in the city of Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso. The realistic convection-permitting model over Africa (CP4A) is applied at the urban scale for the first time and data suggest significant intensification of high-impact weather events and demonstrate the importance of considering the spatio-temporal scales in CP4A. Hydrological modelling and hydraulic modelling indicate increases in peak flows and flood extents in Ouagadougou in response to climate change which will be further exacerbated by future urbanisation. Advances in decision-makers’ capability for using climate information within Ouagadougou were observed, and key recommendations applicable to other regional urban areas are made. This study provides proof of concept that a decision-first modelling-chain provides a methodology for co-producing climate information that can, to some extent, bridge the usability gap between what scientists think is useful and what decision-makers need

Advancing operational flood forecasting, early warning and risk management with new emerging science: Gaps, opportunities and barriers in Kenya

Kenya and the wider East African region suffer from significant flood risk, as illustrated by major losses of lives, livelihoods and assets in the most recent years. This is likely to increase in future as exposure rises and rainfall intensifies under climate change. Accordingly, flood risk management is a priority action area in Kenya's national climate change adaptation planning. Here, we outline the opportunities and challenges to improve end-to-end flood early warning systems, considering the scientific, technical and institutional/governance dimensions. We demonstrate improvements in rainfall forecasts, river flow, inundation and baseline flood risk information. Notably, East Africa is a ‘sweetspot’ for rainfall predictability at sub-seasonal to seasonal timescales for extending forecast lead times beyond a few days and for ensemble flood forecasting. Further, we demonstrate coupled ensemble flow forecasting, new flood inundation simulation, vulnerability and exposure data to support Impact based Forecasting (IbF). We illustrate these advances in the case of fluvial and urban flooding and reflect on the potential for improved flood preparedness action. However, we note that, unlike for drought, there remains no national flood risk management framework in Kenya and there is need to enhance institutional capacities and arrangements to take full advantage of these scientific advances

Mainstreaming forecast based action into national disaster risk management systems: experience from drought risk management in Kenya

Drought and food security crises heighten risks to lives and livelihoods in East Africa. In recent years, a shift towards acting in advance of such events has gained momentum, notably among the humanitarian and development community. This shift is premised on tools that link climate forecasts with pre-agreed actions and funding, known as Forecast-based Action (FbA), or anticipatory action more widely. While FbA approaches have been developed by a number of humanitarian agencies, the key to scaling-up is mainstreaming these approaches into national risk management systems. This paper addresses this gap in the context of drought risk management in Kenya. We analyse Kenya's current drought management system to assess the potential usability of climate forecast information within the existing system, and outline steps towards improved usability of climate information. Further, we note the critical importance of enabling institutions and reliable financing to ensure that information can be consistently used to trigger early action. We discuss the implications of this for scaling-up FbA into national risk management systems

Institutionalising co-production of weather and climate services: learning from the African SWIFT and ForPAc projects

There is growing recognition of the multiple benefits of co-production for forecast producers, researchers and users in terms of increasing understanding of the skill, decision-relevance, uptake and use of forecasts. This policy brief identifies lessons learnt from two operational research projects, African SWIFT and ForPAc, on pathways for embedding co-production into operational weather and climate services as the new standard operational procedure. Experiences across these projects identifies the following potential pathways for institutionalising co-production practises within operational weather and climate services: • Changing mindsets and systems to enable co-production of enhanced forecasts and systematic approaches for their use. • Strengthening in-country institutional links between operational forecasting centres and academic institutions to develop sustainable and improved forecasting capacities to meet users’ evolving weather and climate information needs. • Ensuring continued access to raw forecast data from global forecasting centres to continue and further develop new and improved decision-relevant forecasts. • Formalising user engagement in co-production, through agreeing standard and continuity of representation and commitment to providing regular feedback. • Mainstreaming stakeholder engagement and co-production in meteorological training, forecasting operations and environmental research. • Working through existing channels, such as agricultural and livestock extension services, and harnessing social media and remote ways of working to develop sustainable forms of continuous user engagement. • Establishing monitoring systems to demonstrate the benefits of investing in forecasting capacities. • Incentivising collaboration between complementary initiatives. • Addressing the risks of operationalising new and improved weather and climate services in resource- constrained environments

Using co-production to improve the appropriate use of sub-seasonal forecasts in Africa

Forecasts on sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales have huge potential to aid preparedness and disaster risk reduction planning decisions in a variety of sectors. However, realising this potential depends on the provision of reliable information that can be appropriately applied in the decision-making context of users. This study describes the African SWIFT (Science for Weather Information and Forecasting Techniques) forecasting testbed which brings together researchers, forecast producers and users from a range of African and UK institutions. The forecasting testbed is piloting the provision of real-time, bespoke S2S forecast products to decision-makers in Africa. Drawing on data from the kick-off workshop and initial case study examples, this study critically reflects on the co-production process. Specifically, having direct access to real-time data has allowed user-guided iterations to the spatial scale, timing, visualisation and communication of forecast products to make them more actionable for users. Some key lessons for effective co-production are emerging. First, it is critical to ensure there is sufficient resource to support co-production, especially in the early co-exploration of needs. Second, all the groups in the co-production process require capacity building to effectively work in new knowledge systems. Third, evaluation should be ongoing and combine meteorological verification with decision-makers feedback. Ensuring the sustainability of project-initiated services within the testbed hinges on integrating the knowledge-exchanges between individuals in the co-production process into shaping sustainable pathways for improved operational S2S forecasting within African institutions

How weather and climate information can support local government decision making

This is a report of a workshop which brought together the respective expertise and focus of two consortia projects, African Monsoon Multi-disciplinary Analysis 2050 (AMMA2050) and the Christian Aid-led Building Resilience and Adaptation to Climate Extremes and Disasters (BRACED) project, Zeman Lebidi, both of which are seeking to strengthen climate resilience in Burkina Faso