Stock Market Driven Acquisitions

We present a model of mergers and acquisitions based on stock market misvaluations of the combining firms. The key ingredients of the model are the relative valuations of the merging firms, the horizons of their respective managers, and the market's perception of the synergies from the combination. The model explains who acquirers whom, whether the medium of payment is cash or stock, what are the valuation consequences of mergers, and why there are merger waves. The model is consistent with available empirical findings about characteristics and returns of merging firms, and yields new predictions as well.

The Limits of Arbitrage

In traditional models, arbitrage in a given security is performed by a large number of diversified investors taking small positions against its mispricing. In reality, however, arbitrage is conducted by a relatively small number of highly specialized investors who take large positions using other people's money. Such professional arbitrage has a number of interesting implications for security pricing, including the possibility that arbitrage becomes ineffective in extreme circumstances, when prices diverge far from fundamental values. The model also suggests where anomalies in financial markets are likely to appear, and why arbitrage fails to eliminate them.

Financial Innovation and Financial Fragility

We present a standard model of financial innovation, in which intermediaries engineer securities with cash flows that investors seek, but modify two assumptions. First, investors (and possibly intermediaries) neglect certain unlikely risks. Second, investors demand securities with safe cash flows. Financial intermediaries cater to these preferences and beliefs by engineering securities perceived to be safe but exposed to neglected risks. Because the risks are neglected, security issuance is excessive. As investors eventually recognize these risks, they fly back to safety of traditional securities and markets become fragile, even without leverage, precisely because the volume of new claims is excessive. Financial innovation can make both investors and intermediaries worse off. The model mimics several facts from recent historical experiences, and points to new avenues for financial reform.Financial Innovation, Financial Fragility, Securities, Risks

Neglected risks, financial innovation and financial fragility

We present a standard model of financial innovation, in which intermediaries engineer securities with cash flows that investors seek, but modify two assumptions. First, investors (and possibly intermediaries) neglect certain unlikely risks. Second, investors demand securities with safe cash flows. Financial intermediaries cater to these preferences and beliefs by engineering securities perceived to be safe but exposed to neglected risks. Because the risks are neglected, security issuance is excessive. As investors eventually recognize these risks, they fly back to safety of traditional securities and markets become fragile, even without leverage, precisely because the volume of new claims is excessive.

Reversing the Soviet Economic Collapse

macroeconomics, Soviet, economic collapse

Asset Sales and Debt Capacity

In this paper, we explore the link between asset sales end debt capacity. Asset sales are a common way far firms to raise cash, and so present an alternative to security issues for firms near financial distress. We argue that liquid assets -- those that can be resold at attractive terms -- are good candidates for debt finance because financial distress for firms with such assets is relatively inexpensive. We apply this logic to explain variation in debt capacity across industries and over the business cycle, as well as to the rise in U.S. corporate leverage in the 1980s.

The Efficiency of Investment in the Presence of Aggregate Demand Spillovers

In the presence of aggregate demand spillovers, an imperfectly competitive firm's profit is positively related to aggregate income, which in turn rises with profits of all firms in the economy. This pecuniary externality makes a dollar of a firm's profit raise aggregate income by more than a dollar, since other firms' profits also rise, and in this way gives rise to a "multiplier." Since such "multipliers" are ignored by firms making investment decisions, privately optimal investment choices under uncertainty will not in general be socially optimal. Under reasonable conditions, private investment is too low.

Making Music Accessible: Closed Captions in Light of California Court Ruling on The Duties of Film Studios

Is it unreasonable for deaf moviegoers to expect that song lyrics might be included in film captions and subtitles? On Wednesday, September 28, 2016, a California District court found that it was, when it granted summary judgment to a group of movie studios named in a class action lawsuit filed by the Alexander Graham Bell Association (“the Association”) for the Deaf and Hard of Hearing. The Association filed the claim on the grounds that the studios’ distribution of their works with less-than-complete captions amounted to false advertising and a civil rights violation against the hard of hearing. The court found that a “reasonable consumer” would have no reason to believe that there was full captioning of a given film, and that the Association cannot prove the intentional discrimination required to mount a civil rights claim. This post was originally published on the Cardozo Arts & Entertainment Law Journal website on October 20, 2016. The original post can be accessed via the Archived Link button above

The Proper Scope of Government: Theory and an Application to Prisons

When should a government provide a service inhouse and when should it contract out provision? We develop a model in which the provider can invest in improving the quality of service or reducing cost. If contracts are incomplete, the private provider has a stronger incentive to engage in both quality improvement and cost reduction than a government employee. However, the private contractor's incentive to engage in cost reduction is typically too strong because he ignores the adverse effect on non-contractible quality. The model is applied to understanding the costs and benefits of prison privatization.

A model of shadow banking

We present a model of shadow banking in which financial intermediaries originate and trade loans, assemble these loans into diversified portfolios, and then finance these portfolios externally with riskless debt. In this model: i) outside investor wealth drives the demand for riskless debt and indirectly for securitization, ii) intermediary assets and leverage move together as in Adrian and Shin (2010), and iii) intermediaries increase their exposure to systematic risk as they reduce their idiosyncratic risk through diversification, as in Acharya, Schnabl, and Suarez (2010). Under rational expectations, the shadow banking system is stable and improves welfare. When investors and intermediaries neglect tail risks, however, the expansion of risky lending and the concentration of risks in the intermediaries create financial fragility and fluctuations in liquidity over time.securitization, neglected risk, financial fragility