Fiscal policy coordination in the EMU: A problem with asymmetry and aggregation

This paper deals with fiscal policy coordination within the European Monetary Union. In the first place, it investigates the potential problems which are caused by cross-country differences in key fiscal parameters and the asymmetric nature of these parameters. In the second section, the pros and cons of policy coordination evaluated using some multi-country estimates as point of reference. The empirical results clearly show that policy coordination within the EMU context is very difficult because of these country differences and asymmetries. Even so, it is shown that policy coordination pays off at least in cases where the countries share the same shocks. Some practical problems of policy coordination and future prospects are also considered in the paper.Fiscal policy, policy coordination, government deficit, EMU

Inflation Expectations and Regime Shifts

This paper focuses on the determination of inflation expectations. The following two questions are examined: How much do inflation expectations reflect different economic and institutional regime shifts and in which way do inflation expectations adjust to past inflation? The basic idea in the analysis is an assumption that inflation expectations do not mechanically reflect past inflation as may econometric specification de facto assume but rather they depend on the relevant economic regime. Also the adjustment of expectations to past inflation is different in different inflation regimes. The regime analysis is based on panel data from EMU/EU countries for the period 1973–2004, while the inflation adjustment analysis mainly uses the Kalman filter technique for individual countries for the same period. Expectations (forecasts) are derived from OECD data. Empirical results strongly favour the regime-sensitivity hypothesis and provide an explanation for the poor performance of conventional estimation procedures in the context of Phillips curvesinflation expectations, Kalman filter, stability

Does the Value-Added Tax Shift to Consumption Prices?

This paper deals with the question of how consumption taxes, especially the value-added tax, affect consumption prices. The analyses are based on data from EU countries for the period 1970–2004. The starting point is a conventional supply-demand analysis of the tax incidence problem. This problem is solved using some simple price mark-up equations, Phillips curves and inflation forecast error equations. All these equations are estimated from panel data from EU countries using different estimators and variable specifications. In addition, an analysis is carried out with Finnish excise taxes using commodity/outlet level micro data for the early 2000s. A general result of all analyses is that more than one half of a tax increase shifts to consumer prices. By contrast, there is less evidence on shifts to producer prices.Value-added tax, tax incidence, consumption taxes

Bankruptcies, Indebtedness and the Credit Crunch

This paper deals with Finnish bankruptcies. It shows that bankruptcies are strongly related to the business cycle and that they are perhaps even more strongly related to indebtedness, real interest rates and asset prices. The importance of these financial factors probably increased when the financial markets were liberalized in the early 1980s. Although there is a lot of seasonal and cyclical variation in bankruptcies the long run level (especially when adjusted to the number of firms) is almost constant representing some sort of "a natural rate of bankruptcies". What makes bankruptcies so important is the fact that they directly affect production, employment and credit expansion. The credit crunch effect in particular is scrutinized in the paper.bankruptcies; indebtedness; credit crunch; business cycle

The Effects of the Size of the Public Sector on Fertility

We construct a simple exchange economy overlapping generations model in which there are along with a public social security various private insurance schemes to explore fertility and the effects of various variables on it. In the private system parents can invest in children and benefit from their support (care and income support) in the old age. An introduction of the public system will lower the incentive to have children, i.e. the fertility will be lower. This is an important negative externality of public pension system. We test some of the model's basic implications using long historical panel data from 11 countries for the period 1750-1995. In addition, two other data sets, the WDI (World Bank) and MZES (Manheim University) are used to reinforce the empirical results that are obtained with historical data. These analyses show that, opposite to common beliefs, there is a positive relationship between ageing and fertility if we control for the key determinants of fertility (size of the public sector, level of income, education and infant mortality). By contrast there is a strong negative relationship between the size of the public sector and fertility. The same is true in terms of income and education while the fertility effect of infant mortality is clearly positive.fertility, pensions, overlapping generations

Assessing the Forecasting Performance of a Macroeconomic Model

This paper contains a description of a small quarterly forecasting model for the Finnish economy. We evaluate the forecasting properties of the model by means of stochastic simulation involving both the endogenous and exogenous variables of the model. The simulations allow us to identify and quantify the main sources of forecasting uncertainty. We are also able to assess the linearity of the model. Forecasting performance is also analyzed in a conventional way by means of dynamic simulation. The important issue in these simulations is the stability of the model: how simulated values depend on the estimation period and the ordering of time periods.forecasting; macro models; simulation

Efficiency and costs of payments: some new evidence from Finland

This paper deals with optimal payment systems. The issue boils down to how large are the costs of different payment media, which can be interpreted as a question of the efficiency of the means of payment. However, there are other qualifications related to the choice of payment media. Here, at least three issues can be distinguished. First is the question of optimal payment medium for each individual payment (size, location, EFTPOS etc.). This choice is not independent of the individual characteristics of the payer and payee. Secondly, there is the question of cost effectiveness of payments for different institutions and sectors. The final issue concerns the social optimum for each payment medium. These issues have been particularly controversial in the case of cash, which is still the dominant payment medium in most euro countries. Part of the controversy arises from the fact that the costs and benefits of different payment media affect different market participants in quite different ways, so that a possible social optimum might not correspond eg to the optima for different firms. The paper contains a short review of calculation methods and empirical results for a sample of countries. It also provides new evidence from Finland, which is to an extent one of the front-runners in payment technology and institutional design in payment systems. This shows up in relatively low overall costs of payments. Our estimate of total costs of payment media is 0.3 per cent of GDP, which is very low by international standards.payment media; cash; payment systems; costs of payments

Transmission of macro shocks to loan losses in a deep crisis: the case of Finland

Building on the work of Sorge and Virolainen (2006), we revisit the data on aggregate Finnish bank loan losses from the corporate sector, which covers the ‘Big Five’ crisis in Finland in the early 1990s. Several extensions to the empirical model are considered. These extensions are then used in the simulations of the aggregate loan loss distribution. The simulation results provide some guidance as to what might be the most important dimensions in which to improve the basic model. We found that making the average LGD depend on the business cycle seems to be the most important improvement. We also compare the empirical fit of the annual expected losses over a long period. In scenario-based analyses we find that a prolonged deep recession (as well as simultaneity of various macro shocks) has a convex effect on cumulative loan losses. This emphasizes the importance of an early policy response to a looming crisis. Finally, a comparison of the loan loss distribution on the eve of the 1990s crisis with the most recent distribution demonstrates the greatly elevated risk level prior to the 1990s crisis.credit risk; bank loan losses; banking crisis; macro shocks; default rates; stress testing