Valutazione di opzioni exchange attraverso la simulazione Monte Carlo e stima delle sensitivita'.

Exchange options give the holder the right to exchange the asset V for the asset D. They present an important role for the evaluation of investment projects which have uncertainty both in the gross value (underlying asset) and in the investment costs (exercise price). In this paper we propose to elaborate some MATLAB algorithms to estimate exchange options with Monte Carlo simulation. Then, through the estimate and analysis of sensitivity, we compare the most important exchange options emphasizing the american sequential exchange option.Exchange Options; Real Options; Monte Carlo Simulation;

A Strategic R&D Investment with Flexible Development Time in Real Option Game Analysis

The real option theory provides a useful tool to evaluate an R&D investment under uncertainty because, unlike the NPV (Net Present Value), it considers the managerial flexibility that may be expand the investment opportunity value. However, most R&D investment projects are open to competing firms in the same industry or line of business, and so the strategic considerations become extremely important. In this paper we analyze a real option game between two firms that invest in R&D. The firm that invests first, defined as the Leader, acquires a first mover advantage that we assume as a higher market share than other one, namely the Follower, that postpones its R&D investment decision. But, several R&D investments present positive externalities and so, the option exercise by the Leader generates an “Information Revelation” that benefits the Follower. Moreover, to value the flexibility time to realize the development phase, we consider the American-Exchange type options.American Exchange options, game theory, Montecarlo simulation, R&D, information revelation

An R&D Investment Game under Uncertainty in Real Option Analysis

One of the problems of using the financial options methodolgy to analyse investment decisions is that strategic considerations become extremely important. So, the theory of real option games combines two successful theories, namely real options and game theory. The value of flexibility can be valued as a real option while the competition can be analyzed with game theory. In our model we develop an interaction between two firms that invest in R&D. The firm that invests first, defined as the Leader, acquires a first mover advantage that we assume as a higher share of market. But the R&D investments present positive externalities and so, the option exercise by the Leader generates an Information Revelation that benefits the Follower.Real Options; Exchange Options; Option games; Information Revelation.

R&D Cooperation in Real Option Game Analysis.

Cooperative investments in R&D are a significant driving force of the modern economy. As it well-known, the R&D investments are uncertain and the strategic alliances create synergies and additional information that increase the success probabilities about R&D projects. The theory of real option games takes into account both the flexibility value of an investment opportunity and the strategic considerations. In particular way, while the non-cooperative options are exercised in the interest of the option holders' payoffs, the cooperative ones are exercised in order to maximize the total partnership value. In our model we develop an interaction between two firms that invest in R&D and we show the effects of cooperative synergies on several equilibriums. Moreover, we consider that the R&D investments are characterized by positive network externalities that induce more benefits in case of reciprocal R&D success.Real Exchange Options; Cooperation games; Information Revelation; R&D investments.

A Monte Carlo approach to value exchange options using a single stochastic factor

Exchange options give the holder the right to exchange one risky asset V for another risky asset D. The asset V is referred to as the optioned (underlying) asset, while D is the delivery asset. So, when an exchange option is valued, we generally are exposed to two sources of uncertainity, namely we have two stochastic variables. Exchange options arise quite naturally in a number of signicant nancial arrangements including bond futures contracts, investment performance, options whose strike price is an average of the experienced underlying asset price during the life ot the option and so on. In this paper we propose some algorithms to estimate exchange options by Monte Carlo simulation reducing the bi-dimensionality of valuation problem to single stochastic factor.Exchange Options; Monte Carlo Simulations.