Global, regional, and national burden of diabetes from 1990 to 2021, with projections of prevalence to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

This online publication has been corrected. The corrected version first appeared at thelancet.com on September 28, 2023BACKGROUND : Diabetes is one of the leading causes of death and disability worldwide, and affects people regardless of country, age group, or sex. Using the most recent evidentiary and analytical framework from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD), we produced location-specific, age-specific, and sex-specific estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden from 1990 to 2021, the proportion of type 1 and type 2 diabetes in 2021, the proportion of the type 2 diabetes burden attributable to selected risk factors, and projections of diabetes prevalence through 2050. METHODS : Estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden were computed in 204 countries and territories, across 25 age groups, for males and females separately and combined; these estimates comprised lost years of healthy life, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; defined as the sum of years of life lost [YLLs] and years lived with disability [YLDs]). We used the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) approach to estimate deaths due to diabetes, incorporating 25 666 location-years of data from vital registration and verbal autopsy reports in separate total (including both type 1 and type 2 diabetes) and type-specific models. Other forms of diabetes, including gestational and monogenic diabetes, were not explicitly modelled. Total and type 1 diabetes prevalence was estimated by use of a Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, to analyse 1527 location-years of data from the scientific literature, survey microdata, and insurance claims; type 2 diabetes estimates were computed by subtracting type 1 diabetes from total estimates. Mortality and prevalence estimates, along with standard life expectancy and disability weights, were used to calculate YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs. When appropriate, we extrapolated estimates to a hypothetical population with a standardised age structure to allow comparison in populations with different age structures. We used the comparative risk assessment framework to estimate the risk-attributable type 2 diabetes burden for 16 risk factors falling under risk categories including environmental and occupational factors, tobacco use, high alcohol use, high body-mass index (BMI), dietary factors, and low physical activity. Using a regression framework, we forecast type 1 and type 2 diabetes prevalence through 2050 with Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and high BMI as predictors, respectively. FINDINGS : In 2021, there were 529 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 500–564) people living with diabetes worldwide, and the global age-standardised total diabetes prevalence was 6·1% (5·8–6·5). At the super-region level, the highest age-standardised rates were observed in north Africa and the Middle East (9·3% [8·7–9·9]) and, at the regional level, in Oceania (12·3% [11·5–13·0]). Nationally, Qatar had the world’s highest age-specific prevalence of diabetes, at 76·1% (73·1–79·5) in individuals aged 75–79 years. Total diabetes prevalence—especially among older adults—primarily reflects type 2 diabetes, which in 2021 accounted for 96·0% (95·1–96·8) of diabetes cases and 95·4% (94·9–95·9) of diabetes DALYs worldwide. In 2021, 52·2% (25·5–71·8) of global type 2 diabetes DALYs were attributable to high BMI. The contribution of high BMI to type 2 diabetes DALYs rose by 24·3% (18·5–30·4) worldwide between 1990 and 2021. By 2050, more than 1·31 billion (1·22–1·39) people are projected to have diabetes, with expected age-standardised total diabetes prevalence rates greater than 10% in two super-regions: 16·8% (16·1–17·6) in north Africa and the Middle East and 11·3% (10·8–11·9) in Latin America and Caribbean. By 2050, 89 (43·6%) of 204 countries and territories will have an age-standardised rate greater than 10%. INTERPRETATION : Diabetes remains a substantial public health issue. Type 2 diabetes, which makes up the bulk of diabetes cases, is largely preventable and, in some cases, potentially reversible if identified and managed early in the disease course. However, all evidence indicates that diabetes prevalence is increasing worldwide, primarily due to a rise in obesity caused by multiple factors. Preventing and controlling type 2 diabetes remains an ongoing challenge. It is essential to better understand disparities in risk factor profiles and diabetes burden across populations, to inform strategies to successfully control diabetes risk factors within the context of multiple and complex drivers.Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.http://www.thelancet.comam2024School of Health Systems and Public Health (SHSPH)SDG-03:Good heatlh and well-bein

Reducing the environmental impact of surgery on a global scale: systematic review and co-prioritization with healthcare workers in 132 countries

Background Healthcare cannot achieve net-zero carbon without addressing operating theatres. The aim of this study was to prioritize feasible interventions to reduce the environmental impact of operating theatres. Methods This study adopted a four-phase Delphi consensus co-prioritization methodology. In phase 1, a systematic review of published interventions and global consultation of perioperative healthcare professionals were used to longlist interventions. In phase 2, iterative thematic analysis consolidated comparable interventions into a shortlist. In phase 3, the shortlist was co-prioritized based on patient and clinician views on acceptability, feasibility, and safety. In phase 4, ranked lists of interventions were presented by their relevance to high-income countries and low–middle-income countries. Results In phase 1, 43 interventions were identified, which had low uptake in practice according to 3042 professionals globally. In phase 2, a shortlist of 15 intervention domains was generated. In phase 3, interventions were deemed acceptable for more than 90 per cent of patients except for reducing general anaesthesia (84 per cent) and re-sterilization of ‘single-use’ consumables (86 per cent). In phase 4, the top three shortlisted interventions for high-income countries were: introducing recycling; reducing use of anaesthetic gases; and appropriate clinical waste processing. In phase 4, the top three shortlisted interventions for low–middle-income countries were: introducing reusable surgical devices; reducing use of consumables; and reducing the use of general anaesthesia. Conclusion This is a step toward environmentally sustainable operating environments with actionable interventions applicable to both high– and low–middle–income countries

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Not AvailableBanana is a non- model crop plant, and one of the most important crops in the tropics and sub tropics. Heat stress is the major abiotic stress affecting banana crop production because of its long growth period and is likely to become a threat due to global warming. To understand an acquired thermotolerance phenomenon at the molecular level, the RNA-seq approach was employed by adapting TIR method. A total of 136.38 million high quality reads were assembled. Differentially expressed genes under induction (I) was 3936, I + L was 2268 and lethal stress was 907 compared to control. Gene ontology and DGE analysis showed that genes related to heat shock factors, heat shock proteins, stress associated proteins, ROS scavenging, fatty acid metabolism, protein modification were significantly up regulated during induction, thus preparing the organism or tissue at molecular and cellular level for acquired thermotolerance. KEGG pathway analysis revealed the significant enrichment of pathways involved in protein processing, MAPK signaling and HSPs which indicates that these processes are conserved and involved in thermo tolerance. Thus, this study provides insights into the acquired thermotolerance phenomena in plants especially banana.ICAR-NICR

Computer-aided diagnosis of Myocardial Infarction using ultrasound images with DWT, GLCM and HOS methods: A comparative study

Myocardial Infarction (MI) or acute MI (AMI) is one of the leading causes of death worldwide. Precise and timely identification of MI and extent of muscle damage helps in early treatment and reduction in the time taken for further tests. MI diagnosis using 2D echocardiography is prone to inter-/intra-observer variability in the assessment. Therefore, a computerised scheme based on image processing and artificial intelligent techniques can reduce the workload of clinicians and improve the diagnosis accuracy. A Computer-Aided Diagnosis (CAD) of infarcted and normal ultrasound images will be useful for clinicians. In this study, the performance of CAD approach using Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT), second order statistics calculated from Gray-Level Co-Occurrence Matrix (GLCM) and Higher-Order Spectra (HOS) texture descriptors are compared. The proposed system is validated using 400 MI and 400 normal ultrasound images, obtained from 80 patients with MI and 80 normal subjects. The extracted features are ranked based on t-value and fed to the Support Vector Machine (SVM) classifier to obtain the best performance using minimum number of features. The features extracted from DWT coefficients obtained an accuracy of 99.5%, sensitivity of 99.75% and specificity of 99.25%; GLCM have achieved an accuracy of 85.75%, sensitivity of 90.25% and specificity of 81.25%; and HOS obtained an accuracy of 93.0%, sensitivity of 94.75% and specificity of 91.25%. Among the three techniques presented DWT yielded the highest classification accuracy. Thus, the proposed CAD approach may be used as a complementary tool to assist cardiologists in making a more accurate diagnosis for the presence of MI

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Not AvailableTraditionally farmers cultivate conventional crops like sorghum, bajra, castor, paddy, red gram, etc. in the drylands depending on their resources which are vulnerable to vagaries of monsoon, pests and diseases leading to crop failure. The problem is further aggravated with fluctuating market price of their produce for various reasons like drought, government policies, transient waterlogging, interference by middlemen, etc. Although the productivity of these crops has improved significantly with the advent of new technologies (variety, agronomic practices, etc), improved income to the farmers in the same tune is missing. In the last ten years, area under green chilly and green leafy vegetables (coriander, mint, fenugreek) cultivation has increased almost 10% over 2010, which indicates the increasing preference of farmers towards them1 (Figure 1). Though the Government of India (GoI) is encouraging doubling the income of farmers, the risk-taking capacity of marginal farmers with marginal soil type is poor. Hence, an enterprise with low investment for a portable piece of land with tremendous income opportunities is highly profitable.Not Availabl