Dynamics Of Flood Flow In Red River Basin

In recent decades, flooding has become a major issue in many areas of the Upper Midwest. Many rivers and streams in the region had considerable increases in mean annual peak flows during this period, which was driven by a combination of natural factors including discharge synchrony with the spring thaw, ice jams, glacial lake plain, and a decrease in gradient downstream. The Red River of the North is a prominent river in the United States and Canada\u27s Upper Midwest. It flows from its headwaters in Minnesota and North Dakota to Lake Winnipeg in Manitoba. The river is well-known for its spring floods, which can cause havoc on communities along its banks. There is an increasing need to improve the characterization and identification of precursors in the Red River basin that affect the hydrological conditions that cause spring snowmelt floods and improve predictions to reduce Red River flood damage. This dissertation has developed different research that concerns the dynamics of floods in the Red River basin by integrating hydrological, hydraulic, and machine-learning models. The primary objectives were to improve flood prediction accuracy by deriving the parameters of the Muskingum Routing method using discharge measurements obtained by an Autonomous Surface Vehicle, to predict scour potential of the river through HEC-RAS modeling, and to provide an estimate of the flood progression downstream based on the flow characteristics. The study also compared the effectiveness of Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA), Random Forest (RF), and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) algorithms for flood prediction. Additionally, the research investigated the surface water area variation and response to wet and dry seasons across the entire Red River basin, which can inform the development of effective flood mitigation strategies. The results of this study contributed to a better understanding of flood control strategies in the Red River Basin and helped to inform policy decisions related to flood mitigation in the region. Ultimately, this research aimed to understand the complex dynamics of the RRB and derive hydrological and hydraulic models that could help to improve flood prediction. The first research developed a linear and nonlinear Muskingum model with lateral inflows for flood routing in the Red River Basin using Salp Swarm Algorithm (SSA). The distributed Muskingum model is introduced to improve the accuracy and efficiency of the calculations. The study focuses on developing a linear and nonlinear Muskingum model for the Grand Forks and Drayton USGS stations deriving the parameters of the Muskingum Routing method using discharge measurements based on spatial variable exponent parameters. The suggested approach minimizes the Sum of Square Errors (SSE) between observed and routed outflows. The results show for an icy river like Red River, the Muskingum method proposed is a convenient way to predict outflow hydrographs caused by snowmelt. The second study improved flood inundation mapping accuracy in flood-prone rivers, such as the Red River of the North, by using simulation tools in HEC-RAS for flood modeling and determining Manning\u27s n coefficient. An Autonomous Surface Vehicle (ASV) was used to collect bathymetry and discharge data, including a flood event with a 16.5-year return period in 2022. The results showed that Manning\u27s n-coefficient of 0.07 and 0.15 for the channel and overbanks, respectively, agreed well with the observed and simulated water level values under steady flow conditions. The study also demonstrated the efficiency of using ASVs for flood mapping and examined the scour potential and any local scour development in the streambed near the bridge piers. The third study of this dissertation used hourly level records from three USGS stations to evaluate water level predictions using three methods: SARIMA, RF, and LSTM. The LSTM method outperformed the other methods, demonstrating high precision for flood water level prediction. The results showed that the LSTM method was a reliable choice for predicting flood water levels up to one week in advance. This study contributes to the development of data-driven forecasting systems that provide cost-effective solutions and improved performance in simulating the complex physical processes of floods using mathematical expressions. This last study focused on the spatiotemporal dynamics of surface water area in the Red River Basin (RRB) by using a high-resolution global surface water dataset to investigate the changes in surface water extent from 1990 to 2019. The results showed that there were four distinct phases of variation in surface water: wetting (1990-2001), dry (2002-2005), recent wetting (2006-2013), and recent drying (2014-2019). The transition from bare land to permanent and seasonal water area was observed during the wetting phase, while the other phases experienced relatively little fluctuation. Overall, this study contributes to a better understanding of the spatiotemporal variation of surface water area in the RRB and provides insights into the impact of recent wetting and drying periods on the lakes and wetlands of the RRB

Comparative Analysis of Muskingum Routing: Traditional vs. AI-Assisted Methods

In this assignment, students will apply traditional and AI-assisted Muskingum routing methods to real-world discharge data from the USGS over a 10-day period. The goal is to compare these approaches, enhancing skills in hydrological modeling and data analysis crucial for water resources engineering

Experimental Study of the Effect of W-weir on Reduction of Scour Depth at 90 Degree Sharp Bend

Introduction: Flow patterns within the river bend is three dimensional. Occurrence of secondary flow due to centrifugal force and formation of helicoidally vortex in river bend usually causes the outer bank of river erodes whilst the sediment are deposited in inner bend which appears in the form of point bars. To reduce the river bank scour, many techniques have been developed which may be classified as covering technique and modified flow patterns methods. The W-weir is among such structures. In the present paper, by measuring three components of flow velocity with and without presence of W-weir, variation of flow patterns and shear stress distribution in a 90-degree sharp bend have been investigated. The main purpose of this study is to see the installation of different locations of W-weir in the bend on reduction of outer bank scour. In the present paper, by measuring three components of flow velocity with and without presence of W-weir, variation of flow patterns and shear stress distribution in a 90-degree sharp bend have been investigated. The analyses of data showed more uniform flow upstream of the weir and also revealed that the effect of transverse and centrifugal forces are modified in such a way that the secondary flow is diminished. The results showed that for 30, 60 and 90-degree bends maximum erosion depth in the vicinity of the outer bank with Froude number of 0.206 in comparison with 0.137 has increased up to 84, 90 and 118 % respectively. In both Froude numbers, installation of W-Weir in 30 degree has the most reduction in bed in comparison with 60 and 90 degree. Materials and Methods: To reach the goal of this study a physical model of 90 degree sharp bend was constructed in the hydraulic lab of Shahid Chamran university of Ahvaz. The ratio of R(radius)/b(flume width) was less than 2 which shows a sharp bend. The W-weir was built with 1mm galvanized steel. Flume bed was covered with sediment of D50=1.5mm. The W-weir was installed at three different locations of 30, 60 and 90 degrees from the bend entrance. Two sets of tests were carried out with and without weir. For each location two different flow discharges (Fr= 0.137 and Fr=0.206) were studied. The flow depth for all tests were kept constant equal to 15cm. At the end of each test the flume was drained and bed topography was recorded using laser meter. Measured bed topographic data were used in SURFER and TECPLOT software to compare the results of the W-weir location Results and Discussion: a)W-weir in 60 degree location b)W-weir in 30 degree location a)W-weir in 90 degree location Fig.1 Bed topography after W-weir installed(Q=10l/s) The results showed that W-weir concentrated the flow toward the flume center thus the bed only will scour at the downstream of W-weir whilst the bed at upstream is neither of weir nor eroded. This is because the flow patterns within the bend has been modified in such a way that diminishes the strength of helicoidally vortex upstream of the weir thus the scour or deposition will not occur. The results of tests with Q=15 l/s also was similar with the exception that in these tests the Froude number is higher and the scour depth downstream of weir is much larger. The results also showed that the scour depth is much higher when the weir is installed at 60 degrees. The scour depth for weir at 90 degree location showed reduction of about 33% and 39% compare to the weir in 30 and 60 degree location respectively. Conclusion: In this research, by assessing the cross velocities and the scour depth downstream of weir in 90 degree sharp bends and studying the impacts of w-shape weir on those parameters, following results were obtained: The W-weir can modify the flow patterns within the flume bend in which no scour and deposition is observed upstream of the weir. The scour downstream of weir with higher depth closed to the outer bank is observed in all tests. The scour depth is much higher when the weir is installed at 30 degree location whilst is minimum when the weir is installed at 90 degree location

Impacts of climatic variability on surface water area observed by remotely sensed imageries in the Red River Basin

Recent wetting in the Northern Great Plain (NGP) exerted strong influences on lakes and wetlands. However, the influence of recent increase in precipitation on spatiotemporal variation of surface water area is poorly understood in the Red River Basin (RRB, northern United States and southern Canada). Here, we used a high-resolution global surface water dataset to understand spatiotemporal dynamics of the annual, total, permanent, and seasonal water extent in RRB. Monthly surface water area is investigated to detect the change in seasonal surface water extent. We found four distinct phases of variation in surface water: Phase 1 (1990–2001, wetting); Phase 2 (2002- 2005, dry); Phase 3 (2006–2013, recent wetting); and Phase 4 (2014–2019, recent drying). A bare land to a permanent and seasonal water area switch is observed during Phase 1, while the other phases have experienced relatively little fluctuation. Findings have implications for nutrient concentration assessment in lakes and wetlands

Flow Pattern and Erosion in a 90-Degrees Sharp Bend around a W−Weir

Different flow-altering methods, such as W−Weirs, have been developed to reduce erosion. For this study, we performed two experiments: (1) installing a W−Weir in various positions to determine the best angle for placement, and (2) investigating the variation of flow patterns and bed shear stress distribution in a 90-degree sharp bend by measuring the 3D components of flow velocities, with and without W−Weirs, where the greatest scour depth occurs. The results from the three installation angles indicate that less scour depth and volume of sediment removal occur when the weir is located close to the end of a bend. In addition, the value of the secondary circular power without a weir was higher than the position with a weir; however, this value significantly increased at 70 degrees due to turbulence flow near the W−Weir. This secondary flow power reduction at 45 degrees with a W−Weir increased by 65.8 percent for a Froude number value of 0.17, and by 29.8 percent for a Froude number value of 0.28, compared to values without the W−Weir, respectively