What can be said about the rise and fall in oil prices?

The price of oil rose steadily between the middle of 2003 and the end of 2007, rose further and more rapidly until mid-2008 and fell sharply until the end of that year. Commentators agree that a significant part of the increase in the oil price over that period was due to rapid demand growth from emerging markets, but there are substantial differences of view about the relative importance of other factors, and limited work thus far in explaining the large fall in oil prices in the second half of 2008. The purpose of this article is to analyse the main explanations for the rise and fall in oil prices in the five years until the end of 2008. It argues that shocks to oil demand and supply, coupled with the institutional factors of the oil market, are qualitatively consistent with the direction of price movements, although the magnitude of the rise and subsequent fall during 2008 is more difficult to justify. The available empirical evidence suggests that financial flows into oil markets have not been an important factor over the period as a whole. Nonetheless, one cannot rule out the possibility that some part of the sharp rise and fall in the oil price in 2008 might have had some of the characteristics of an asset price bubble.

Bail-Out or Work-Out? Theoretical Considerations

In recent years, we appear to have entered an era of capital account crises. In response, a number of new crisis resolution ideas have been put forward, including the establishment of supranational institutions such as an international lender of last resort or an international bankruptcy court, temporary payments standstills and the inclusion of collective action clauses in debt contracts. This paper assesses these proposals using a theoretical model of crisis. The model underscores the importance of adapting policy interventions to the nature of the crisis at hand. For example, it finds that payments standstills and last-resort lending are an equally efficient means of dealing with liquidity crises, both ex-ante and ex-post, while creditor committees are second-best. It finds that debt-write-downs are a preferred means of dealing with solvency crises than subsidized IMF financing because of the negative moral hazard implications of the latter tool. And it finds that international bankruptcy court proposals may be superior to contractual approaches in securing such write-downscrisis resolution, international lender of last resort, standstills, IMF

Which Inter-dealer Market Prevails? An analysis of inter-dealer trading in opaque markets

A number of dealership markets share three common features: customer-dealer trades remain undisclosed, inter-dealer trading forms a substantial part of total trading and dealers have a choice, when dealing with each other, between doing so directly and using an inter-dealer broker (IDB). Using a three-stage market microstructure model, we show that for dealers who have executed undisclosed customer trades, their choice depends on the number of firms who operate as dealers: trading through the IDB being preferable when more than a critical number of dealers participate in the industry and vice versa. Comparative static effects of information asymmetry and market transparency on the critical number of dealers are derived. Subject to a monotonicity constraint, a condition is derived determining which form of inter-dealer market will prevail.

The effects of Stamp Duty on the Level and Volatility of Equity Prices

This paper investigates the effects of stamp duty - the UK securities transaction tax - on the level and volatility of equity prices. The authors examine the response of the equity market to announcements of changes in stamp duty rates and compare the prices of two assets which are similar in all respects apart from their treatment for stamp duty purposes: American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) and their London Stock Exchange-traded stocks. The findings are consistent with the hypothesis that stamp duty is capitalised in prices. Using univariate GARCH models, the authors find that stamp duty has no effect on volatility, contradicting the key hypothesis put forward by proponents of transaction taxes.