The Integrated Calibration Index (ICI) and related metrics for quantifying the calibration of logistic regression models

Assessing the calibration of methods for estimating the probability of the occurrence of a binary outcome is an important aspec

Travel to school and housing markets: a case study of Sheffield, England

How children travel to school is at the centre of a complex set of interrelated issues with significant policy implications. This paper reviews the relation of patterns of travel to school to concerns about public health, school choice, urban form, and residential housing markets. The spatial relations between pupils’ homes and the schools that they attend provides the basis of an analytical framework that links local neighbourhood characteristics, school performance, and house prices to the distance and mode of travel to school and the level of ‘excess commuting’ in the urban system. A unique analysis of several integrated micro-datasets from Sheffield, UK, suggests that, while there are high levels of excess commuting, there remains a complex interrelationship between housing and neighbourhood characteristics, school performance, and commuting patterns. There are differences between the pictures for primary schools and secondary schools. Policies aimed at promoting transport efficiency and those promoting school choice are likely to remain in tension

A bi-directional relationship between obesity and health-related quality of life : evidence from the longitudinal AusDiab study

Objective: To assess the prospective relationship between obesity and health-related quality of life, including a novel assessment of the impact of health-related quality of life on weight gain.Design and setting: Longitudinal, national, population-based Australian Diabetes, Obesity and Lifestyle (AusDiab) study, with surveys conducted in 1999/2000 and 2004/2005.Participants: A total of 5985 men and women aged 25 years at study entry.Main outcome measure(s): At both time points, height, weight and waist circumference were measured and self-report data on health-related quality of life from the SF-36 questionnaire were obtained. Cross-sectional and bi-directional, prospective associations between obesity categories and health-related quality of life were assessed.Results: Higher body mass index (BMI) at baseline was associated with deterioration in health-related quality of life over 5 years for seven of the eight health-related quality of life domains in women (all P0.01, with the exception of mental health, P&gt;0.05), and six out of eight in men (all P&lt;0.05, with the exception of role-emotional, P=0.055, and mental health, P&gt;0.05). Each of the quality-of-life domains related to mental health as well as the mental component summary were inversely associated with BMI change (all P&lt;0.0001 for women and P0.01 for men), with the exception of vitality, which was significant in women only (P=0.008). For the physical domains, change in BMI was inversely associated with baseline general health in women only (P=0.023).Conclusions: Obesity was associated with a deterioration in health-related quality of life (including both physical and mental health domains) in this cohort of Australian adults followed over 5 years. Health-related quality of life was also a predictor of weight gain over 5 years, indicating a bi-directional association between obesity and health-related quality of life. The identification of those with poor health-related quality of life may be important in assessing the risk of future weight gain, and a focus on health-related quality of life may be beneficial in weight management strategies.<br /

Whither Capitalism? Financial externalities and crisis

As with global warming, so with financial crises – externalities have a lot to answer for. We look at three of them. First the financial accelerator due to ‘fire sales’ of collateral assets -- a form of pecuniary externality that leads to liquidity being undervalued. Second the ‘risk- shifting’ behaviour of highly-levered financial institutions who keep the upside of risky investment while passing the downside to others thanks to limited liability. Finally, the network externality where the structure of the financial industry helps propagate shocks around the system unless this is checked by some form of circuit breaker, or ‘ring-fence’. The contrast between crisis-induced Great Recession and its aftermath of slow growth in the West and the rapid - and (so far) sustained - growth in the East suggests that successful economic progress may depend on how well these externalities are managed

A four-kallikrein panel for the prediction of repeat prostate biopsy: data from the European Randomized Study of Prostate Cancer Screening in Rotterdam, Netherlands

Background: Most men with elevated levels of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) do not have prostate cancer, leading to a large number of unnecessary biopsies. A statistical model based on a panel of four kallikreins has been shown to predict the outcome of a first prostate biopsy. In this study, we apply the model to an independent data set of men with previous negative biopsy but persistently elevated PSA. Methods: The study cohort consisted of 925 men with a previous negative prostate biopsy and elevated PSA (≥3 ng ml-1), with 110 prostate cancers detected (12%). A previously published statistical model was applied, with recalibration to reflect the lower positive biopsy rates on rebiopsy. Results: The full-kallikrein panel had higher discriminative accuracy than PSA and DRE alone, with area under the curve (AUC) improving from 0.58 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.52, 0.64) to 0.68 (95% CI: 0.62, 0.74), P<0.001, and high-grade cancer (Gleason 7) at biopsy with AUC improving from 0.76 (95% CI: 0.64, 0.89) to 0.87 (95% CI: 0.81, 0.94), P<0.003). Application of the panel to 1000 men with persistently elevated PSA after initial negative biopsy, at a 15% risk threshold would reduce the number of biopsies by 712; would miss (or delay) the diagnosis of 53 cancers, of which only 3 would be Gleason 7 and the rest Gleason 6 or less. Conclusions: Our data constitute an external validation of a previously published model. The four-kallikrein panel predicts the result of repeat prostate biopsy in men with elevated PSA while dramatically decreasing unnecessary biopsies

Chronic excitotoxin-induced axon degeneration in a compartmented neuronal culture model

Glutamate excitotoxicity is a major pathogenic process implicated in many neurodegenerative conditions, including AD (Alzheimer's disease) and following traumatic brain injury. Occurring predominantly from over-stimulation of ionotropic glutamate receptors located along dendrites, excitotoxic axonal degeneration may also occur in white matter tracts. Recent identification of axonal glutamate receptor subunits within axonal nanocomplexes raises the possibility of direct excitotoxic effects on axons. Individual neuronal responses to excitotoxicity are highly dependent on the complement of glutamate receptors expressed by the cell, and the localization of the functional receptors. To enable isolation of distal axons and targeted excitotoxicity, murine cortical neuron cultures were prepared in compartmented microfluidic devices, such that distal axons were isolated from neuronal cell bodies. Within the compartmented culture system, cortical neurons developed to relative maturity at 11 DIV (days in vitro) as demonstrated by the formation of dendritic spines and clustering of the presynaptic protein synaptophysin. The isolated distal axons retained growth cone structures in the absence of synaptic targets, and expressed glutamate receptor subunits. Glutamate treatment (100 μM) to the cell body chamber resulted in widespread degeneration within this chamber and degeneration of distal axons in the other chamber. Glutamate application to the distal axon chamber triggered a lesser degree of axonal degeneration without degenerative changes in the untreated somal chamber. These data indicate that in addition to current mechanisms of indirect axonal excitotoxicity, the distal axon may be a primary target for excitotoxicity in neurodegenerative conditions

Modeling recursive RNA interference.

An important application of the RNA interference (RNAi) pathway is its use as a small RNA-based regulatory system commonly exploited to suppress expression of target genes to test their function in vivo. In several published experiments, RNAi has been used to inactivate components of the RNAi pathway itself, a procedure termed recursive RNAi in this report. The theoretical basis of recursive RNAi is unclear since the procedure could potentially be self-defeating, and in practice the effectiveness of recursive RNAi in published experiments is highly variable. A mathematical model for recursive RNAi was developed and used to investigate the range of conditions under which the procedure should be effective. The model predicts that the effectiveness of recursive RNAi is strongly dependent on the efficacy of RNAi at knocking down target gene expression. This efficacy is known to vary highly between different cell types, and comparison of the model predictions to published experimental data suggests that variation in RNAi efficacy may be the main cause of discrepancies between published recursive RNAi experiments in different organisms. The model suggests potential ways to optimize the effectiveness of recursive RNAi both for screening of RNAi components as well as for improved temporal control of gene expression in switch off-switch on experiments

Concurrent use of prescription drugs and herbal medicinal products in older adults: A systematic review

This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/), which permits any noncommercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made.The use of herbal medicinal products (HMPs) is common among older adults. However, little is known about concurrent use with prescription drugs as well as the potential interactions associated with such combinations. Objective Identify and evaluate the literature on concurrent prescription and HMPs use among older adults to assess prevalence, patterns, potential interactions and factors associated with this use. Methods Systematic searches in MEDLINE, PsycINFO, EMBASE, CINAHL, AMED, Web of Science and Cochrane from inception to May 2017 for studies reporting concurrent use of prescription medicines with HMPs in adults (≥65 years). Quality was assessed using the Joanna Briggs Institute checklists. The Evidence for Policy and Practice Information and Co-ordinating Centre (EPPI-Centre) three stage approach to mixed method research was used to synthesise data. Results Twenty-two studies were included. A definition of HMPs or what was considered HMP was frequently missing. Prevalence of concurrent use by older adults varied widely between 5.3% and 88.3%. Prescription medicines most combined with HMPs were antihypertensive drugs, beta blockers, diuretics, antihyperlipidemic agents, anticoagulants, analgesics, antihistamines, antidiabetics, antidepressants and statins. The HMPs most frequently used were: ginkgo, garlic, ginseng, St John’s wort, Echinacea, saw palmetto, evening primrose oil and ginger. Potential risks of bleeding due to use of ginkgo, garlic or ginseng with aspirin or warfarin was the most reported herb-drug interaction. Some data suggests being female, a lower household income and less than high school education were associated with concurrent use. Conclusion Prevalence of concurrent prescription drugs and HMPs use among older adults is substantial and potential interactions have been reported. Knowledge of the extent and manner in which older adults combine prescription drugs will aid healthcare professionals can appropriately identify and manage patients at risk.Peer reviewedFinal Published versio

Prevention of haematoma progression by tranexamic acid in intracerebral haemorrhage patients with and without spot sign on admission scan: a statistical analysis plan of a pre-specified sub-study of the TICH-2 trial

Objective We present the statistical analysis plan of a prespecified Tranexamic Acid for Hyperacute Primary Intracerebral Haemorrhage (TICH)-2 sub-study aiming to investigate, if tranexamic acid has a different effect in intracerebral haemorrhage patients with the spot sign on admission compared to spot sign negative patients. The TICH-2 trial recruited above 2000 participants with intracerebral haemorrhage arriving in hospital within 8 h after symptom onset. They were included irrespective of radiological signs of on-going haematoma expansion. Participants were randomised to tranexamic acid versus matching placebo. In this subgroup analysis, we will include all participants in TICH-2 with a computed tomography angiography on admission allowing adjudication of the participants’ spot sign status. Results Primary outcome will be the ability of tranexamic acid to limit absolute haematoma volume on computed tomography at 24 h (± 12 h) after randomisation among spot sign positive and spot sign negative participants, respectively. Within all outcome measures, the effect of tranexamic acid in spot sign positive/negative participants will be compared using tests of interaction. This sub-study will investigate the important clinical hypothesis that spot sign positive patients might benefit more from administration of tranexamic acid compared to spot sign negative patients

Evaluation of sit-stand workstations in an office setting: A randomised controlled trial

Background: Excessive sitting time is a risk factor for cardiovascular disease mortality and morbidity independent of physical activity. This aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of a sit-stand workstation on sitting time, and vascular, metabolic and musculoskeletal outcomes in office workers, and to investigate workstation acceptability and feasibility. Methods: A two-arm, parallel-group, individually randomised controlled trial was conducted in one organisation. Participants were asymptomatic full-time office workers aged ≥18 years. Each participant in the intervention arm had a sit-stand workstation installed on their workplace desk for 8 weeks. Participants in the control arm received no intervention. The primary outcome was workplace sitting time, assessed at 0, 4 and 8 weeks by an ecological momentary assessment diary. Secondary behavioural, cardiometabolic and musculoskeletal outcomes were assessed. Acceptability and feasibility were assessed via questionnaire and interview. ANCOVA and magnitude-based inferences examined intervention effects relative to controls at 4 and 8 weeks. Participants and researchers were not blind to group allocation. Results: Forty-seven participants were randomised (intervention n = 26; control n = 21). Relative to the control group at 8 weeks, the intervention group had a beneficial decrease in sitting time (-80.2 min/8-h workday (95 % CI = -129.0, -31.4); p = 0.002), increase in standing time (72.9 min/8-h workday (21.2, 124.6); p = 0.007) and decrease in total cholesterol (-0.40 mmol/L (-0.79, -0.003); p = 0.049). No harmful changes in musculoskeletal discomfort/pain were observed relative to controls, and beneficial changes in flow-mediated dilation and diastolic blood pressure were observed. Most participants self-reported that the workstation was easy to use and their work-related productivity did not decrease when using the device. Factors that negatively influenced workstation use were workstation design, the social environment, work tasks and habits. Conclusion: Short-term use of a feasible sit-stand workstation reduced daily sitting time and led to beneficial improvements in cardiometabolic risk parameters in asymptomatic office workers. These findings imply that if the observed use of the sit-stand workstations continued over a longer duration, sit-stand workstations may have important ramifications for the prevention and reduction of cardiometabolic risk in a large proportion of the working population. Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02496507