System dynamics modeling in local water management : assessing strategies for the city of Boerne, Texas

Hydrologic systems, despite their complexity, have remained relatively balanced throughout time, but as climate changes and as population exerts more pressure onto water sources, these systems may be altered in ways that are difficult to predict. As Texas’ climate becomes hotter and drier, water deficits can become widespread as sources are strained beyond their capacity. For small areas, like the City of Boerne, Texas, water management and planning is a way to prepare for shortages that may occur in the future. To create a water management plan that increases the city’s resilience and sustainability, Boerne must understand its current water system and how it will change in the future. The balance between water supply and demand is conceptualized through the use of causal loop diagrams and then through system dynamics modeling. Three interventions are used as disruptions to the system: xeriscaping, adoption of rainwater harvesting systems, and adoption of smart meters for residential irrigation. Each strategy is varied across range of adoptions. The resulting 125 different combinations are analyzed under three scenarios: a base case assuming the city’s maximum supply of water is firm, and two different responses to a meteorological drought. Results show that the city can effectively reduce total demand, forestalling the point at which it surpasses supply. Different combinations of adoptions can achieve the same goal, giving the city optionality in choosing strategies that are most suited for their needs and constraints. Rainwater harvesting was found to be the dominant intervention influencing demand. Though effective in the base scenario, the influence of rainwater harvesting is less in the two drought scenarios given its dependence on precipitation. Xeriscaping was the second most influential intervention and smart meters for irrigation had no effect on demand. The approach used in this study highlights the interdependency between community adoption of conservation strategies and the importance of considering these relationships using systems modelingEnergy and Earth Resource

System Dynamics Modeling in Local Water Management: Assessing Strategies for the City of Boerne, Texas

As more pressure is exerted onto water sources, hydrologic systems may be altered in ways that are difficult to predict. In Texas, water deficits can become widespread as sources are strained beyond capacity. For smaller communities, such as Boerne, Texas, water management and planning is a way to prepare. The supply-demand water balance in Boerne is conceptualized through causal loop diagrams and system dynamics modeling. Through stakeholder engagement, xeriscaping, rainwater harvesting, and smart meters were chosen as interventions, each varied in adoption levels. The resulting 125 combinations were analyzed under three scenarios: a base case assuming maximum supply of water is firm, and two responses to a meteorological drought. Results show that the city can effectively forestall a deficit. Different combinations of adoptions can achieve the same goal, giving the city optionality in choosing strategies that are best suited for its needs and constraints. Rainwater harvesting was found to be the dominant intervention influencing demand, but its influence is reduced in the two drought scenarios. Xeriscaping was the second most influential intervention and smart meters for irrigation had no effect on demand. The approach used in this study highlights the interdependency between community adoption of conservation strategies and the importance of considering these relationships using systems modeling

System Dynamics Modeling in Local Water Management: Assessing Strategies for the City of Boerne, Texas

As more pressure is exerted onto water sources, hydrologic systems may be altered in ways that are difficult to predict. In Texas, water deficits can become widespread as sources are strained beyond capacity. For smaller communities, such as Boerne, Texas, water management and planning is a way to prepare. The supply-demand water balance in Boerne is conceptualized through causal loop diagrams and system dynamics modeling. Through stakeholder engagement, xeriscaping, rainwater harvesting, and smart meters were chosen as interventions, each varied in adoption levels. The resulting 125 combinations were analyzed under three scenarios: a base case assuming maximum supply of water is firm, and two responses to a meteorological drought. Results show that the city can effectively forestall a deficit. Different combinations of adoptions can achieve the same goal, giving the city optionality in choosing strategies that are best suited for its needs and constraints. Rainwater harvesting was found to be the dominant intervention influencing demand, but its influence is reduced in the two drought scenarios. Xeriscaping was the second most influential intervention and smart meters for irrigation had no effect on demand. The approach used in this study highlights the interdependency between community adoption of conservation strategies and the importance of considering these relationships using systems modeling

El Tlacuache Núm. 296 (2008). 296 Año 9 (2008) enero. El Tlacuache

Rumbo a los festejos del centeario de la Revolución Mexicana por Salvador Rueda Smithers. - Exposición temporal en el museo de sitio de Xochicalco obras pictóricas de Enrique Hurtado del 22 de enero al 29 de febrero por Vianey C. Arroyo. - El Yauhtli por Margarita Avilés Flores y Macrina Fuentes Mata

Enhanced interpretation of newborn screening results without analyte cutoff values.

PURPOSE: To improve quality of newborn screening by tandem mass spectrometry with a novel approach made possible by the collaboration of 154 laboratories in 49 countries. METHODS: A database of 767,464 results from 12,721 cases affected with 60 conditions was used to build multivariate pattern recognition software that generates tools integrating multiple clinically significant results into a single score. This score is determined by the overlap between normal and disease ranges, penetration within the disease range, differences between conditions, and weighted correction factors. RESULTS: Ninety tools target either a single condition or the differential diagnosis between multiple conditions. Scores are expressed as the percentile rank among all cases with the same condition and are compared to interpretation guidelines. Retrospective evaluation of past cases suggests that these tools could have avoided at least half of 279 false-positive outcomes caused by carrier status for fatty-acid oxidation disorders and could have prevented 88% of known false-negative events. CONCLUSION: Application of this computational approach to raw data is independent from single analyte cutoff values. In Minnesota, the tools have been a major contributing factor to the sustained achievement of a false-positive rate below 0.1% and a positive predictive value above 60%

Enhanced interpretation of newborn screening results without analyte cutoff values

Purpose: To improve quality of newborn screening by tandem mass spectrometry with a novel approach made possible by the collaboration of 154 laboratories in 49 countries. Methods: A database of 767,464 results from 12,721 cases affected with 60 conditions was used to build multivariate pattern recognition software that generates tools integrating multiple clinically significant results into a single score. This score is determined by the overlap between normal and disease ranges, penetration within the disease range, differences between conditions, and weighted correction factors. Results: Ninety tools target either a single condition or the differential diagnosis between multiple conditions. Scores are expressed as the percentile rank among all cases with the same condition and are compared to interpretation guidelines. Retrospective evaluation of past cases suggests that these tools could have avoided at least half of 279 false-positive outcomes caused by carrier status for fatty-acid oxidation disorders and could have prevented 88% of known false-negative events. Conclusion: Application of this computational approach to raw data is independent from single analyte cutoff values. In Minnesota, the tools have been a major contributing factor to the sustained achievement of a false-positive rate below 0.1% and a positive predictive value above 60%. © 2012 American College of Medical Genetics and Genomics

Enhanced interpretation of newborn screening results without analyte cutoff values

Purpose: To improve quality of newborn screening by tandem mass spectrometry with a novel approach made possible by the collaboration of 154 laboratories in 49 countries. Methods: A database of 767,464 results from 12,721 cases affected with 60 conditions was used to build multivariate pattern recognition software that generates tools integrating multiple clinically significant results into a single score. This score is determined by the overlap between normal and disease ranges, penetration within the disease range, differences between conditions, and weighted correction factors. Results: Ninety tools target either a single condition or the differential diagnosis between multiple conditions. Scores are expressed as the percentile rank among all cases with the same condition and are compared to interpretation guidelines. Retrospective evaluation of past cases suggests that these tools could have avoided at least half of 279 false-positive outcomes caused by carrier status for fatty-acid oxidation disorders and could have prevented 88% of known false-negative events. Conclusion: Application of this computational approach to raw data is independent from single analyte cutoff values. In Minnesota, the tools have been a major contributing factor to the sustained achievement of a false-positive rate below 0.1% and a positive predictive value above 60%. © 2012 American College of Medical Genetics and Genomics

Enhanced interpretation of newborn screening results without analyte cutoff values

A collaboration among 157 newborn screening programs in 47 countries has lead to the creation of a database of 705,333 discrete analyte concentrations from 11,462 cases affected with 57 metabolic disorders, and from 631 heterozygotes for 12 conditions. This evidence was first applied to establish disease ranges for amino acids and acylcarnitines, and clinically validate 114 cutoff target ranges. Objective: To improve quality and performance with an evidence-based approach, multivariate pattern recognition software has been developed to aid in the interpretation of complex analyte profiles. The software generates tools that convert multiple clinically significant results into a single numerical score based on overlap between normal and disease ranges, penetration within the disease range, differences between specific conditions, and weighted correction factors. Design: Eighty-five on-line tools target either a single condition or the differential diagnosis between two or more conditions. Scores are expressed as a numerical value and as the percentile rank among all cases with the condition chosen as primary target, and are compared to interpretation guidelines. Tools are updated automatically after any new data submission (2009- 2011: 5.2 new cases added per day on average). Main outcome measures: Retrospective evaluation of past cases suggest that these tools could have avoided at least half of 277 false positive outcomes caused by carrier status for fatty acid oxidation disorders, and could have prevented 88% of false negative events caused by cutoff 7 values set inappropriately. In Minnesota, their prospective application has been a major contributing factor to the sustained achievement of a false positive rate below 0.1% and a positive predictive value above 60%. Conclusions: Application of this computational approach to raw data could make cutoff values for single analytes effectively obsolete. This paradigm is not limited to newborn screening and is applicable to the interpretation of diverse multi-analyte profiles utilized in laboratory medicine. Abstract wor