Forest management and future changes to ecosystem services in the Romanian Carpathians

This study investigates consequences of future changes to the provision of ecosystem services (ES) in the Romanian Carpathians. Two 2040 forest management scenarios were compared, using two indicators to describe the gains and losses of ES. Changes in landslide regulation potential were defined as changes to landslide susceptibility. High nature value grasslands characterized biodiversity support. The business as usual scenario results in a 8% lower loss of landslide regulation potential compared to the alternative scenario. It also results in a 29% higher regional net gain of landslide regulation potential. Both scenarios result in the loss of biodiversity support due to their prevalent transition of forest expansion. This type of information is crucial for informing decision makers on the locations of potential gains and losses of future development

Multi-scale approach to analyse the evolution of soft rock coastal cliffs and role of controlling factors: a case study in South-Eastern Italy

The evolution of soft rock coastlines is strictly related to natural and anthropogenic conditions, which in some cases can determine also an acceleration of coastal retreat. The recent evolution of a soft rocky coastal stretch on the Italian southern Adriatic sector is analysed. To investigate the most important contributing factors to coastal evolution, a detailed multi-temporal (1954–2017) morphological analysis with photo-interpretation is carried out, which allows gaining a general understanding of the cliff evolution. The coastal retreat was then evaluated by exploiting the Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) tool. From that, site-specific analyses are carried out to explore the role of four environmental factors: rock mechanical properties, geostructural setup of the rock mass along the coast, emerged rock platform at the toe, and the storm waves. Analyses highlighted how the most significant retreat is detected along cliff segments characterized by the presence of low strength rocks susceptible to water-induced weakening, moderate fracturing degree of the rock mass, absence of the emerged platform at the toe, and wave storms. This work shows how a multi-scale methodology could represent an efficient approach to gain an interpretation of the instability processes and thus prepare risk mitigation plans and land management strategies

Geomorphological and structural characterization of the ‘Canale di Pirro’ polje, Apulia (Southern Italy)

In this work, we present a geomorphological map of the ‘Canale di Pirro’ polje, located in the central part of Apulia region, Southern Italy, among the most interesting karst landforms in the Mediterranean Basin. This area is characterized by a remarkable underground system of caves, where the so-called ‘Inghiottitoio di Masseria Rotolo’ reaches a depth of 324 m, thus being the deepest known cave in Apulia. The polje is bounded on both sides by tectonically controlled ridges, showing an overall length of some 12 km. The map of the area is produced starting from the interpretation of aerial photographs, the integration of the digital elevation model analysis and field surveys, in order to obtain a correct distribution of landforms and fluvial processes. Furthermore, karst depressions, conical hills, erosional gullies, alluvial fans and tectonic structures have been also identified and reported in the map

Economic Losses for Rural Land Value Due to Landslides

A high dynamic environment is typically interested by changes affecting the natural processes and their related consequences. Landslides do not only alter the landscape, but substantially affect human activities. When it comes to natural hazards, landslides have been acknowledged as one of the main causes of human casualties or damage to assets. Furthermore, economic losses to rural lands are also significant, despite often being underrated, especially in rural areas. In not densely populated territories, the main productive activities are in fact often based on the agricultural and pastoral resources. We intend to propose a methodology that helps to investigate the potential loss of value (expressed in €) of lands usually exploited for economical profit in rural areas. We test the method on two case studies, belonging to different European Countries with very different economical assets and geological, geomorphological, and environmental conditions. The first study area is located in the Southern Italian Apennines, in the Molise region, while the second area is located in Buzau County, a region belonging to the Romanian Curvature Carpathians and Subcarpathians. Our analysis is focused not only on the actual situation, represented by the past and present landslides, but also on potential future scenarios for 2050. The scenarios foresee future similar socio-economical and technological activities, with no major changes expected. The loss estimation is based on the presence of landslides affecting the rural lands, but it also considers both a present and future landslide susceptibility scenario. This procedure allowed the estimation of the economic losses in the two case-study areas, highlighting how the same natural processes might result in different economical consequences. Following our approach, the results highlight that for the Italian case study there is a loss of 10.4% for 2007 and 9.9% for 2050 of the total land value as concerns landslides susceptibility. In the Romanian case study, on the other hand, the loss corresponds to 29.6 and 29.8% for 2010 and 2050, respectively. In addition, the proposed procedure could be considered a valuable methodological approach to assess landslide-induced economic losses, and be effectively used during spatial planning activities, aimed at supporting decision makers for a more sustainable land management

Variations in the susceptibility to landslides, as a consequence of land cover changes: A look to the past, and another towards the future

Land cover is one of the most important conditioning factors in landslide susceptibility analysis. Usually it is considered as a static factor, but it has proven to be dynamic, with changes occurring even in few decades. In this work the influence of land cover changes on landslide susceptibility are analyzed for the past and for future scenarios. For the application, an area representative of the hilly-low mountain sectors of the Italian Southern Apennines was chosen (Rivo basin, in Molise Region). With this purpose landslide inventories and land cover maps were produced for the years 1954, 1981 and 2007. Two alternative future scenarios were created for 2050, one which follows the past trend (2050-trend), and another one more extreme, foreseeing a decrease of forested and cultivated areas (2050-alternative). The landslide susceptibility analysis was performed using the Spatial Multi-Criteria Evaluation method for different time steps, investigating changes to susceptibility over time. The results show that environmental dynamics, such as land cover change, affect slope stability in time. In fact there is a decrease of susceptibility in the past and in the future 2050-trend scenario. This is due to the increase of forest or cultivated areas, that is probably determined by a better land management, water and soil control respect to other land cover types such as shrubland, pasture or bareland. Conversely the results revealed by the alternative scenario (2050-alternative), show how the decrease in forest and cultivated areas leads to an increase in landslide susceptibility. This can be related to the assumed worst climatic condition leading to a minor agricultural activity and lower extension of forested areas, possibly associated also to the effects of forest fires. The results suggest that conscious landscape management might contribute to determine a significant reduction in landslide susceptibility

Assessing Karst Landscape Degradation: A Case Study in Southern Italy

Karst regions are peculiar due to their environmental and ecological features and hold a rich abundance of natural resources; nonetheless, they represent one of the most endangered areas in the world as a result of human activity. Further, urbanization and modernization of agricultural practices over the years determined an acceleration in the degradation of the karst environment. For a long period in the Apulia region, humans used to live in a sustainable equilibrium with the karst landscape; however, during the 1980s and 1990s, an intense conversion of land cover interested the area, determining a high disturbance of the karst landforms and landscape degradation. In this article, we propose an insight into a case study placed in the Alta Murgia area (Apulia, Italy) to analyze the evolution of the karst landscape over a period of 50 years (1954–2006) by means of geomorphological analysis and multi-temporal photo interpretation. Landcover mapping is carried out to catch landscape modification, and further, obliteration of the karst features through time is also detected. Changes are quantified, and related statistics are derived. Furthermore, to better characterize the area, the main morphometric parameters are also computed for doline. Finally, extensive fieldwork is carried out to verify the current state of the mapped elements and to check the most peculiar observed cases of land cover and karst landform transformations. Results show the intensive transformation experienced by the study site in the period 1973–2006, determined by the substantial land cover transition from pasture and permanent crops to cultivated areas. Further, the main karst features, such as doline and shallow valleys with flat bottoms, also locally known as lame, are partially or totally obliterated by agricultural practices

Landslide susceptibility zonation at the regional scale: The Molise case study (Italy)

Molise is an Italian region with a high concentration of landslides. However, an estimation of landslide susceptibility for the entire region has never been officially performed. In this paper, a landslide susceptibility analysis is illustrated based on the implementation of two different statistical methods (bivariate and multivariate). The aim is to obtain a susceptibility map that provides a good representation of the criticality of the study area together with a reliable statistical performance. Various combinations of conditioning factors were tested with the two methods and, based on expert judgment and ROC (Receiver Operating Curve) values, the one obtained through the multivariate approach was selected as the best map

Scenarios of land cover change and landslide susceptibility:An example from the buzau subcarpathians, romania

Since 1990 the Subcarpathians in Buzau County, Romania have witnessed substantial socioeconomic changes and resulting changes in the land cover. Influenced by the interplay of poor economic conditions, land ownership reforms, and institutional difficulties, these changes have been difficult to manage, resulting in a dispersal of built-up areas. Even though, the spatial extent of land cover changes has not reached critical levels as similar areas in the Carpathians, our analysis suggests that in the future the area might experience more extreme land cover changes. Moreover, the litho-structural traits and the high relief energy of the Romanian Subcarpathians favored the occurrence of various types of mass movements, imposing different levels of risk to people, buildings and infrastructure. Increase of human influence in form of expansion of built-up areas in the area could therefore result in slope instability and changes in the temporal and spatial patterns of hydro-meteorological hazards. This study shows, that possible future changes in land cover will not have a major influence on hazards, however risk might increase due to the increased value and number of elements at risk