Measuring Economic Growth from Outer Space

GDP growth is often measured poorly for countries and rarely measured at all for cities. We propose a readily available proxy: satellite data on lights at night. Our statistical framework uses light growth to supplement existing income growth measures. The framework is applied to countries with the lowest quality income data, resulting in estimates of growth that differ substantially from established estimates. We then consider a longstanding debate: do increases in local agricultural productivity increase city incomes? For African cities, we find that exogenous agricultural productivity shocks (high rainfall years) have substantial effects on local urban economic activity.economic growth; remote sensing; urbanization; income measurement

A model for gelation with explicit solvent effects: Structure and dynamics

We study a two-component model for gelation consisting of $f$-functional monomers (the gel) and inert particles (the solvent). After equilibration as a simple liquid, the gel particles are gradually crosslinked to each other until the desired number of crosslinks has been attained. At a critical crosslink density the largest gel cluster percolates and an amorphous solid forms. This percolation process is different from ordinary lattice or continuum percolation of a single species in the sense that the critical exponents are new. As the crosslink density $p$ approaches its critical value $p_c$, the shear viscosity diverges: $\eta(p)\sim (p_c-p)^{-s}$ with $s$ a nonuniversal concentration-dependent exponent.Comment: 6 pages, 9 figure

Modeling of ground motion from a 1994 Northridge aftershock using a tomographic velocity model of the Los Angeles Basin

The 1994 Northridge mainshock and its aftershocks show a complex pattern of peak accelerations at stations located in the Los Angeles Basin. The waveforms contain multiples of body-wave phases and extensive surface waves at frequencies mostly below 1 Hz. In particular, for stations at distances greater than 18 km, secondary arrivals show larger accelerations than the direct S-wave arrivals. The mainshock waveforms are further complicated by irregularities of the source rupture. We use 2D finite difference to evaluate the effect of lateral variations in seismic velocity on the amplitude of shear-wave energy and to distinguish the effects of source and propagation path. We model waveforms from one aftershock recorded at nine stations deployed along a 60-km-long profile extending into the Los Angeles Basin. We use a two-dimensional slice through the 3D tomography model of the Los Angeles Basin in the 2D finite-difference calculations. These synthetic waveforms fit the aftershock waveforms significantly better than corresponding waveforms determined from simple 1D velocity models. With the addition of a thin low-velocity surface layer above the tomography model, the finite-difference synthetics reproduce most of the important features of the recorded data, in particular, the large-amplitude arrivals 7 to 10 sec following the direct S arrival. These arrivals correspond to the SS arrival, which is sharply refracted at the basin edge, and the S-wave with multiple legs trapped by the dipping near surface gradient. For large earthquakes located either inside or outside the basin, these phases can be the cause of the largest and hence potentially most hazardous shaking in the Los Angeles Basin

The global spatial distribution of economic activity:nature, history and the role of trade

We study the distribution of economic activity, as proxied by lights at night, across 250,000 grid cells of average area 560 square kilometres. We first document that nearly half of the variation can be explained by a parsimonious set of physical geography attributes. A full set of country indicators only explains a further 10%. When we divide geographic characteristics into two groups, those primarily important for agriculture and those primarily important for trade, we find that the agriculture variables have relatively more explanatory power in countries that developed early and the trade variables have relatively more in countries that developed late, despite the fact that the latter group of countries are far more dependent on agriculture today. We explain this apparent puzzle in a model in which two technological shocks occur, one increasing agricultural productivity and the other decreasing transportation costs, and in which agglomeration economies lead to persistence in urban locations. In countries that developed early, structural transformation due to rising agricultural productivity began at a time when transport costs were still relatively high, so urban agglomerations were localized in agricultural regions. When transport costs fell, these local agglomerations persisted. In late developing countries, transport costs fell well before structural transformation. To exploit urban scale economies, manufacturing agglomerated in relatively few, often coastal, locations. With structural transformation, these initial coastal locations grew, without formation of more cities in the agricultural interior

Measuring Economic Growth from Outer Space

GDP growth is often measured poorly for countries and rarely measured at all for cities or subnational regions. We propose a readily available proxy: satellite data on lights at night. We develop a statistical framework that uses lights growth to augment existing income growth measures, under the assumption that measurement error in using observed light as an indicator of income is uncorrelated with measurement error in national income accounts. For countries with good national income accounts data, information on growth of lights is of marginal value in estimating the true growth rate of income, while for countries with the worst national income accounts, the optimal estimate of true income growth is a composite with roughly equal weights. Among poor-data countries, our new estimate of average annual growth differs by as much as 3 percentage points from official data. Lights data also allow for measurement of income growth in sub- and supranational regions. As an application, we examine growth in Sub Saharan African regions over the last 17 years. We find that real incomes in non-coastal areas have grown faster by 1/3 of an annual percentage point than coastal areas; non-malarial areas have grown faster than malarial ones by 1/3 to 2/3 annual percent points; and primate city regions have grown no faster than hinterland areas. Such applications point toward a research program in which “empirical growth” need no longer be synonymous with “national income accounts.”

Molecular Dynamics Simulation of Apolipoprotein E3 Lipid Nanodiscs

Nanodiscs are binary discoidal complexes of a phospholipid bilayer circumscribed by belt-like helical scaffold proteins. Using coarse-grained and all-atom molecular dynamics simulations, we explore the stability, size, and structure of nanodiscs formed between the N-terminal domain of apolipoprotein E3 (apoE3-NT) and variable number of 1,2-dimyristoyl-sn-glycero-3-phosphocholine (DMPC) molecules. We study both parallel and antiparallel double-belt configurations, consisting of four proteins per nanodisc. Our simulations predict nanodiscs containing between 240 and 420 DMPC molecules to be stable. The antiparallel configurations exhibit an average of 1.6 times more amino acid interactions between protein chains and 2 times more ionic contacts, compared to the parallel configuration. With one exception, DMPC order parameters are consistently larger in the antiparallel configuration than in the parallel one. In most cases, the root mean square deviation of the positions of the protein backbone atoms is smaller in the antiparallel configuration. We further report nanodisc size, thickness, radius of gyration, and solvent accessible surface area. Combining all investigated parameters, we hypothesize the antiparallel protein configuration leading to more stable and more rigid nanodiscs than the parallel one

Anomalous stress relaxation in random macromolecular networks

Within the framework of a simple Rouse-type model we present exact analytical results for dynamical critical behaviour on the sol side of the gelation transition. The stress-relaxation function is shown to exhibit a stretched-exponential long-time decay. The divergence of the static shear viscosity is governed by the critical exponent $k=\phi -\beta$, where $\phi$ is the (first) crossover exponent of random resistor networks, and $\beta$ is the critical exponent for the gel fraction. We also derive new results on the behaviour of normal stress coefficients.Comment: 13 pages, 6 figures; contribution to the proceedings of the Minerva International Workshop on Frontiers In The Physics Of Complex Systems (25-28 March 2001) - to appear in a special issue of Physica

Has climate change driven urbanization in Africa?

This paper documents strong but differentiated links between climate and urbanization in large panels of districts and cities in Sub-Saharan Africa, which has dried substantially in the past fifty years. The key dimension of heterogeneity is whether cities are likely to have manufacturing for export outside their regions, as opposed to being exclusively market towns providing local services to agricultural hinterlands. In regions where cities are likely to be manufacturing centers (25% of our sample), drier conditions increase urbanization and total urban incomes. There, urban migration provides an "escape" from negative agricultural moisture shocks. However, in the remaining market towns (75% of our sample), cities just service agriculture. Reduced farm incomes from negative shocks reduce demand for urban services and derived demand for urban labor. There, drying has little impact on urbanization or total urban incomes. Lack of structural transformation in Africa inhibits a better response to climate change

The outstanding scientist, R.A. Fisher:His views on eugenics and race

R.A. Fisher was one of the greatest scientists of the 20th century (Fig. 1). He was a man of extraordinary ability and originality whose scientific contributions ranged over a very wide area of science, from biology through statistics to ideas on continental drift, and whose work has had a huge positive impact on human welfare. Not surprisingly, some of his large volume of work is not widely used or accepted at the current time, but his scientific brilliance has never been challenged. He was from an early age a supporter of certain eugenic ideas, and it is for this reason that he has been accused of being a racist and an advocate of forced sterilisation (Evans 2020). His promotion of eugenics has recently caused various organisations to remove his name from awards and dedications of buildings (Tarran 2020; Rothamsted Research 2020; Society for the Study of Evolution 2020; Gonville and Caius College 2020). A primary aim of this paper is to conduct a careful analysis of his own writings in these areas. Our purpose is neither to defend nor attack Fisher’s work in eugenics and views on race, but to present a careful account of their substance and nature.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

High energy neutrinos from neutralino annihilations in the Sun

Neutralino annihilations in the Sun to weak boson and top quark pairs lead to high-energy neutrinos that can be detected by the IceCube and KM3 experiments in the search for neutralino dark matter. We calculate the neutrino signals from real and virtual WW, ZZ, Zh, and $t \bar t$ production and decays, accounting for the spin-dependences of the matrix elements, which can have important influences on the neutrino energy spectra. We take into account neutrino propagation including neutrino oscillations, matter-resonance, absorption, and nu_tau regeneration effects in the Sun and evaluate the neutrino flux at the Earth. We concentrate on the compelling Focus Point (FP) region of the supergravity model that reproduces the observed dark matter relic density. For the FP region, the lightest neutralino has a large bino-higgsino mixture that leads to a high neutrino flux and the spin-dependent neutralino capture rate in the Sun is enhanced by 10^3 over the spin-independent rate. For the standard estimate of neutralino captures, the muon signal rates in IceCube are identifiable over the atmospheric neutrino background for neutralino masses above M_Z up to 400 GeV.Comment: 45 pages, 18 figures and 5 tables, PRD versio