Firms' investment decisions in response to demand and price uncertainty

We estimate the effect of demand and price uncertainty on firms' investment decisions from a panel of manufacturing firms. Uncertainty measures are derived from firms' subjective qualitative expectations. They are close to their theoretical counterparts, the variances of future demand and price shocks. We find that demand uncertainty depresses planned and realized investment, while price uncertainty is insignificant. This is consistent with the behavior of monopolistic firms with irreversible capital (Caballero, 1991). Further, firms revise their investment plans very little. They may do so in response to new information on sales growth, but not as a result of reduced uncertainty.investment, uncertainty, real options, survey data, panel data

The response of firms\u2019 investment and financing to adverse cash flow shocks : the role of bank relationships

We test whether firms with a single bank are better shielded from loss of credit and investment cuts in periods of adverse cash flow shocks than firms with multiple bank relationships. Our estimates of the cash flow sensitivity of investment show that both types of firms are equally subject to financing constraints that bind only in the event of adverse cash flow shocks. In these periods, firms incur lower cuts in investment expenditures when they can obtain extra credit. In periods of adverse cash flow shocks, the probability of obtaining extra bank debt becomes more sensitive to the size and leverage of the firm.financial constraints, lending relationships, firm investment, firm financing

Firms' investment decisions in response to demand and price uncertainty

We estimate the effect of demand and price uncertainty on firms’ investment decisions from a panel of manufacturing firms. Uncertainty measures are derived from firms’ subjective qualitative expectations. They are close to their theoretical counterparts, the variances of future demand and price shocks. We find that demand uncertainty depresses planned and realized investment, while price uncertainty is insignificant. This is consistent with the behavior of monopolistic firms with irreversible capital (Caballero, 1991). Further, firms revise their investment plans very little. They may do so in response to new information on sales growth, but not as a result of reduced uncertainty. JEL Classification: D21, D24, D81, D92, C23Investment, panel data, real options, survey data, uncertainty

The response of firms‘ investment and financing to adverse cash flow shocks: the role of bank relationships

We test whether firms with a single bank are better shielded from loss of credit and investment cuts in periods of adverse cash flow shocks than firms with multiple bank relationships. Our estimates of the cash flow sensitivity of investment show that both types of firms are equally subject to financing constraints that bind only in the event of adverse cash flow shocks. In these periods, firms incur lower cuts in investment expenditures when they can obtain extra credit. In periods of adverse cash flow shocks, the probability of obtaining extra bank debt becomes more sensitive to the size and leverage of the firm. JEL Classification: D92financial constraints, firm financing, firm investment, lending relationships

The interest rate and credit channel in Belgium: an investigation with micro-level firm data

This paper investigates the effects of monetary policy on firms' investment behaviour. The analysis relies on a comprehensive database of Belgian firms covering all sectors of economic activity and firms of all sizes. We proceed in two steps. First, we estimate a reduced-form investment equation derived from the neo-classical model, augmented by cash flow. This equation is estimated by the Arellano and Bond (1991) GMM procedure. Second, we compute the elasticity of the user cost of capital and the cash flow/capital ratio to the policy-controlled interest rate. We estimate the model for various sample splits according to sectors and sizes. Our results indicate that small firms are more sensitive to monetary policy than large firms, and that services are almost unaffected. Since the impact differs across sectors and sizes, we can conclude that monetary policy produces distributional effects JEL Classification: C23, D21, E50credit channel, Investment, monetary transmission, panel data

The interest rate and credit channels in Belgium: an investigation with micro-level firm data

This paper investigates the effects of monetary policy on firms\u2019 investment behaviour. The analysis relies on a comprehensive database of Belgian firms covering all sectors of economic activity and firms of all sizes. We proceed in two steps. First, we estimate a reduced-form investment equation derived from the neo-classical model, augmented by cash flow. This equation is estimated by the Arellano and Bond (1991) GMM procedure. Second, we compute the elasticity of the user cost of capital and the cash flow/capital ratio to the policy-controlled interest rate. We estimate the model for various sample splits according to sectors and sizes. Our results indicate that small firms are more sensitive to monetary policy than large firms, and that services are almost unaffected. Since the impact differs across sectors and sizes, we can conclude that monetary policy produces distributional effects.Investment, Monetary transmission, Credit channel, Panel data

The interest rate and credit channels in Belgium: An investigation with micro-level firm data

This paper investigates the effects of monetary policy on firms' investment behaviour. The analysis relies on a comprehensive database of Belgian firms covering all sectors of economic activity and firms of all sizes. We proceed in two steps. First, we estimate a reduced-form investment equation derived from the neo-classical model, augmented by cash flow. This equation is estimated by the Arellano and Bond (1991) GMM procedure. Second, we compute the elasticity of the user cost of capital and the cash flow/capital ratio to the policy-controlled interest rate. We estimate the model for various sample splits according to sectors and sizes. Our results indicate that small firms are more sensitive to monetary policy than large firms, and that services are almost unaffected. Since the impact differs across sectors and sizes, we can conclude that monetary policy produces distributional effects.Investment, Monetary transmission, Credit channel, Panel data

The impact of uncertainty on investment plans

In this paper we investigate how demand and output price uncertainty affect investment plans of Belgian manufacturing firms. We obtain time-varying uncertainty measures at the firm and industry level from the Belgian monthly business cycle survey and investment plans from the half-yearly investment survey. Using investment plans instead of realised investment data, e.g. annual accounts data, is, from an informative point of view, superior since it is more likely to reveal the features of the decision formation process and, therefore, it is most closely related to economic theory. Business investment is normally planned well in advance, because it involves time and costs to implement, and theory describes the behaviour of firms at the moment of their decision, which can be assumed to be fully captured in survey data. In order to find robust predictions we estimate three different specifications, each of which can be considered as a benchmark in the literature: two reduced form equations and a structural Euler equation. Our results show that uncertainty depresses investment. These results hold for industry- as well as for firmspecific demand uncertainty. Moreover, referring to Euler equation, uncertainty postpones investment today in favour of investment tomorrow. This effect is stronger for firms with more irreversible investment. Hence, our results seem to confirm to predictions of the real option theory.investment, uncertainty, irreversibility, real options, survey data

The impact of uncertainty on investment plans

In this paper we investigate how demand and output price uncertainty affect investment plans of Belgian manufacturing firms. We obtain time-varying uncertainty measures at the firm and industry level from the Belgian monthly business cycle survey and investment plans from the half-yearly investment survey. Using investment plans instead of realised investment data, e.g. annual accounts data, is, from an informative point of view, superior since it is more likely to reveal the features of the decision formation process and, therefore, it is most closely related to economic theory. Business investment is normally planned well in advance, because it involves time and costs to implement, and theory describes the behaviour of firms at the moment of their decision, which can be assumed to be fully captured in survey data. In order to find robust predictions we estimate three different specifications, each of which can be considered as a benchmark in the literature: two reduced form equations and a structural Euler equation. Our results show that uncertainty depresses investment. These results hold for industry- as well as for firmspecific demand uncertainty. Moreover, referring to Euler equation, uncertainty postpones investment today in favour of investment tomorrow. This effect is stronger for firms with more irreversible investment. Hence, our results seem to confirm to predictions of the real option theory

Effect of proliferating cell nuclear antigen ubiquitination and chromatin structure on the dynamic properties of the Y-family DNA polymerases

Y-family DNA polymerases carry out translesion synthesis past damaged DNA. DNA polymerases (pol) η and ι are usually uniformly distributed through the nucleus but accumulate in replication foci during S phase. DNA-damaging treatments result in an increase in S phase cells containing polymerase foci. Using photobleaching techniques, we show that polη is highly mobile in human fibroblasts. Even when localized in replication foci, it is only transiently immobilized. Although ubiquitination of proliferating cell nuclear antigen (PCNA) is not required for the localization of polη in foci, it results in an increased residence time in foci. polι is even more mobile than polη, both when uniformly distributed and when localized in foci. Kinetic modeling suggests that both polη and polι diffuse through the cell but that they are transiently immobilized for ∼150 ms, with a larger proportion of polη than polι immobilized at any time. Treatment of cells with DRAQ5, which results in temporary opening of the chromatin structure, causes a dramatic immobilization of polη but not polι. Our data are consistent with a model in which the polymerases are transiently probing the DNA/chromatin. When DNA is exposed at replication forks, the polymerase residence times increase, and this is further facilitated by the ubiquitination of PCNA