Anticipatory climate governance in Southeast Asia

This report presents the RE-IMAGINE research in one of its four regions: Southeast Asia. RE-IMAGINE builds on climate foresight expertise of the Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) Program and analyses the role of foresight in climate governance across the globe. Anticipating the possible impacts of climate change has become a key global focus. Scenarios and many other methods and tools are used today to imagine climate futures and develop strategies for realizing new futures while governing climate change. With the proliferation of these processes in sustainability-related research and planning contexts, scrutiny of their role in steering decision-making becomes increasingly important. How can the benefits and challenges of these processes of anticipation be better understood as governance interventions? Research into anticipatory climate governance processes in the Global South has remained very limited, while these regions are most vulnerable to climate change. This report therefore examines processes of anticipation in Southeast Asia. The research question we answer is: ‘through what approaches are diverse processes of anticipation used to govern climate change in diverse Southeast Asian contexts?’. We first examine what methods and tools are used to anticipate climate futures and their role in climate policy and decision-making. We then closely examine three case studies to understand their approaches to anticipatory governance. Additionally, we present the results of two regional meetings with stakeholders where we discussed the challenges that exist in each country to practice anticipatory climate governance and the opportunities to strengthen capacities in this field. Finally, we present recommendations for strengthening processes of anticipatory climate governance in the region

A Network Study of Family Affect Systems in Daily Life

Adolescence is a time period characterized by extremes in affect and increasing prevalence of mental health problems. Prior studies have illustrated how affect states of adolescents are related to interactions with parents. However, it remains unclear how affect states among family triads, that is adolescents and their parents, are related in daily life. This study investigated affect state dynamics (happy, sad, relaxed, and irritated) of 60 family triads, including 60 adolescents (Mage = 15.92, 63.3% females), fathers and mothers (Mage = 49.16). The families participated in the RE-PAIR study, where they reported their affect states in four ecological momentary assessments per day for 14 days. First, we used multilevel vector-autoregressive network models to estimate affect dynamics across all families, and for each family individually. Resulting models elucidated how family affect states were related at the same moment, and over time. We identified relations from parents to adolescents and vice versa, while considering family variation in these relations. Second, we evaluated the statistical performance of the network model via a simulation study, varying the percentage missing data, the number of families, and the number of time points. We conclude with substantive and statistical recommendations for future research on family affect dynamics.</p

A Network Study of Family Affect Systems in Daily Life

Adolescence is a time period characterized by extremes in affect and increasing prevalence of mental health problems. Prior studies have illustrated how affect states of adolescents are related to interactions with parents. However, it remains unclear how affect states among family triads, that is adolescents and their parents, are related in daily life. This study investigated affect state dynamics (happy, sad, relaxed, and irritated) of 60 family triads, including 60 adolescents (Mage = 15.92, 63.3% females), fathers and mothers (Mage = 49.16). The families participated in the RE-PAIR study, where they reported their affect states in four ecological momentary assessments per day for 14 days. First, we used multilevel vector-autoregressive network models to estimate affect dynamics across all families, and for each family individually. Resulting models elucidated how family affect states were related at the same moment, and over time. We identified relations from parents to adolescents and vice versa, while considering family variation in these relations. Second, we evaluated the statistical performance of the network model via a simulation study, varying the percentage missing data, the number of families, and the number of time points. We conclude with substantive and statistical recommendations for future research on family affect dynamics.</p

Fruit and seed traits and vertebrate–fruit interactions of tree species occurring in Guyana, Suriname, and French Guiana

Seed dispersal is widely considered an important mechanism for the conservation of plant diversity. In tropical regions, over 80% of woody plant species are dispersed by vertebrates, often through the consumption of fruits. Our understanding of what drives interactions between vertebrates and fruits is limited. Through a systematic literature search, we compiled a database of fruit and seed traits and vertebrate–fruit interactions for tree and vertebrate species occurring in the Guianas, with the aim of facilitating research into seed dispersal and seed predation of tree species in the Guianas. The database was compiled by extracting data from 264 published sources. It consists of 21,082 records, of which 19,039 records contain information about 19 different fruit and seed traits belonging to 1622 different tree species. The other 2043 records contain information on vertebrate–fruit interactions between 161 vertebrate species and 464 tree species. Our analyses showed a taxonomic bias, particularly in the interaction data, toward large-bodied vertebrates, with most interactions recorded for the bearded saki (Chiropotes chiropotes), followed by the lowland tapir (Tapirus terrestris). For plants we found an overrepresentation of the Sapotaceae and Moraceae families and an underrepresentation of the Rubiaceae, Myrtaceae, and Lauraceae families in the interactions. There are no copyright restrictions on the data set; please cite this publication when using these data

Anticipatory climate governance in Southeast Asia

This report presents the RE-IMAGINE research in one of its four regions: Southeast Asia. RE-IMAGINE builds on climate foresight expertise of the Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) Program and analyses the role of foresight in climate governance across the globe. Anticipating the possible impacts of climate change has become a key global focus. Scenarios and many other methods and tools are used today to imagine climate futures and develop strategies for realizing new futures while governing climate change. With the proliferation of these processes in sustainability-related research and planning contexts, scrutiny of their role in steering decision-making becomes increasingly important. How can the benefits and challenges of these processes of anticipation be better understood as governance interventions? Research into anticipatory climate governance processes in the Global South has remained very limited, while these regions are most vulnerable to climate change. This report therefore examines processes of anticipation in Southeast Asia. The research question we answer is: ‘through what approaches are diverse processes of anticipation used to govern climate change in diverse Southeast Asian contexts?’. We first examine what methods and tools are used to anticipate climate futures and their role in climate policy and decision-making. We then closely examine three case studies to understand their approaches to anticipatory governance. Additionally, we present the results of two regional meetings with stakeholders where we discussed the challenges that exist in each country to practice anticipatory climate governance and the opportunities to strengthen capacities in this field. Finally, we present recommendations for strengthening processes of anticipatory climate governance in the region

The link between parental support and adolescent negative mood in daily life: between-Person Heterogeneity in within-Person Processes

Lack of parental support is related to more adolescent negative mood. However, little is known about how fluctuations of parental support relate to fluctuations of negative mood within adolescents in daily life. The current study aimed to elucidate these processes at a day to day micro-level and examined to which extent adolescents would differ in the association between perceived parental support and adolescent negative mood. The sample consisted of 242 Dutch adolescents (M-age = 13.82, 63.2% female) who completed ecological momentary assessments of 3 weeks 3 months apart. Results from the multilevel regression analyses showed that, on average, adolescents experienced higher levels of negative mood on days when they perceived their parents to be less supportive. Substantial individual differences were found in this association, however, these were partially explained by the level of depressive symptoms and perceived parental intrusiveness. These findings suggest that advice on parental support should be tailored to the unique characteristics of the adolescent

Anticipatory climate governance in Southeast Asia

This report presents the RE-IMAGINE research in one of its four regions: Southeast Asia. RE-IMAGINE builds on climate foresight expertise of the Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) Program and analyses the role of foresight in climate governance across the globe. Anticipating the possible impacts of climate change has become a key global focus. Scenarios and many other methods and tools are used today to imagine climate futures and develop strategies for realizing new futures while governing climate change. With the proliferation of these processes in sustainability-related research and planning contexts, scrutiny of their role in steering decision-making becomes increasingly important. How can the benefits and challenges of these processes of anticipation be better understood as governance interventions? Research into anticipatory climate governance processes in the Global South has remained very limited, while these regions are most vulnerable to climate change. This report therefore examines processes of anticipation in Southeast Asia. The research question we answer is: ‘through what approaches are diverse processes of anticipation used to govern climate change in diverse Southeast Asian contexts?’. We first examine what methods and tools are used to anticipate climate futures and their role in climate policy and decision-making. We then closely examine three case studies to understand their approaches to anticipatory governance. Additionally, we present the results of two regional meetings with stakeholders where we discussed the challenges that exist in each country to practice anticipatory climate governance and the opportunities to strengthen capacities in this field. Finally, we present recommendations for strengthening processes of anticipatory climate governance in the region

Bright spots of agroecology in the Netherlands:A spatial analysis of agroecological practices and income stability

Context: Agroecological practices are known to reduce environmental pressure of farming systems and increase food system resilience in tropical regions. In contrast, in the temperate climate and industrialized agricultural context of the Netherlands, agroecology use remains limited and its impacts are unknown. As agroecological systems can form a sustainable alternative to conventional farming, it is relevant to study to what extent farmers use agroecological practices in the Netherlands, potentially serving as a model for transition. Objective: This study assesses spatial patterns of uptake of agroecological practices and their relationship with income resilience. Methods: Using data from 735 Dutch farms, we created a composite Agroecology Index to quantify the extent of use of agroecological practices. The FAO's 10 Elements of Agroecology framework was used to select indicators for the index, by selecting the six of the Elements in this framework for which our dataset contained suitable data. Linear regressions explored underlying factors, such as farm size and farm type. Using an outlier analysis, bright and dark spot farms, exceeding or lagging the Dutch average, were mapped. We evaluated the effects of agroecological practices on income resilience over a 10-year period. Results and conclusions: On a 0–100 scale, agroecology scores ranged from 16.5% to 61.1% (36.6 ± 7.0), with stark contrasts between different Elements of agroecology. Arable farms excelled in Diversity, while livestock farms performed better in Efficiency. Spatial variation was substantial, with both bright and dark spots dispersed across the country. We found highest average scores and the strongest prevalence of bright spots in the province of Flevoland, an area with an exceptional number of organic farmers. Higher agroecology scores were linked to increased income stability, independent of farm size or type. Significance: The methods developed in this study provide an approach to address the growing demand for evidence of the upscaling of agroecology in practice. Also, the relationships between agroecology and social and environmental outcomes from farm to regional scales can be addressed, which can guide developments towards sustainable agriculture.</p

Foresight methods and SAMIS related decision support scenarios development. Final report

This report aims to provide an overall understanding of the advanced course main learning objectives, e-seminars structures and outputs. It presents the scenarios and visuals developed by the participants through the advanced course