Integrating Econometric Models of Australia's Livestock Industries: Implications for Forecasting and Other Economic Analyses

The perceived value of integrating small partial- equilibrium structural models of individual livestock industries into a comprehensive single-sector model is to take advantage of the interrelationships that are usually expressed by cross elasticities on both the supply and demand sides of these industries. Model integration should provide a more realistic representation of the livestock industries and an improved mechanism for industry analyses. However, model integration could also lead to increased error in model simulation that could reduce the value of the larger model for those purposes. Using forecasting as an example application, this paper investigates how the increased endogenisation of cross-commodity relationships in alternative structural econometric models of the Australian livestock industries affects the simulation performance of the larger model. Forecast accuracy and encompassing tests were used to investigate the value of model integration by comparing the accuracy of the models' forecasts and by testing for differences in the information contained in those forecasts. The general result was that combining the models did not adversely affect the forecasts from the integrated model and the encompassing tests indicated that the forecasts of the integrated and single models contained different information. Because the forecasts of the integrated model were not impaired relative to the single model forecasts, model integration was considered to be useful for forecasting and other types of economic analysis in the livestock industries.Structural econometric models, Model integration, Forecasting, Economic analysis, Livestock Production/Industries,

Research and Extension Capabilities: Program Economists in New South Wales Agriculture

In 1997 the economists in NSW Agriculture conducting applied economics research at its larger research stations were assigned to the Department's major programs of the Department. This report reviews some of their achievements since that time. The report begins with a section describing the role of Program Economists and their management. Then follows a brief review of the main areas of interest of each of the twelve economists. A large section of the report is devoted to outlining major areas of research and extension where program economists, often working cooperatively, have made a significant contribution. These areas include: Analyses of market conditions for agricultural products; Field crop economics; Grazing and pasture economics; Integrated weed and pest management economics; Farming systems economics; Provision of farm management information; Research and extension evaluation and policy. Aspects reviewed in these areas included the key findings from research, research objectives, future directions of research and for each area, a selection of the most significant publications produced by program economists. The final section of the report is a listing of publications by program economists since 1997. Since then they have written 9 book chapters, 57 refereed journal papers, 23 refereed research bulletins, 40 papers in conference proceedings, 94 invited and contributed conference papers, 56 miscellaneous reports and work papers; and 43 farm management papers.Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies, Teaching/Communication/Extension/Profession,

Research Into Conservation Tillage for Dryland Cropping in Australia and China

Crop Production/Industries,

Australian Sheep Industry CRC: Economic Evaluations of Scientific Research Programs

By the end of its seven-year term in 2007-08, the Australian Sheep Industry CRC (Sheep CRC) will have received total funds of about $90 million, that comprises Commonwealth and industry funding of$30 million, and in-kind contributions valued at $60 million. This level of public and private funding emphasises the need for the Sheep CRC to demonstrate that its research programs will generate sound economic returns to all stakeholders. This paper reports an evaluation of the potential economic value of the achievements of the Sheep CRC at the midpoint of its term of operations at which it has some completed research and a large volume of research in progress. The main question that has been addressed in this evaluation concerns the nature and likely magnitude of the potential benefits relative to the costs of their realisation. The economic methods and other procedures that were used to answer this question, the evaluation scenarios and the results obtained are described. Based on the defined with- and without-Sheep CRC evaluation scenarios, the ‘bottom-line’ result was that the Sheep CRC’s scientific research programs have the potential to deliver a total incremental benefit with a 20-year net present value (NPV) of$191.3 million, and a total benefit-cost ratio (BCR) of 8.1:1 (both at a 5% real rate of discount), indicating that the Sheep CRC’s total research investment over all programs has the potential to return about $8 for every$1 of research investment funds.sheep research, economic evaluations, economic-surplus- benefit-cost analysis., Agribusiness, Farm Management, Livestock Production/Industries, Production Economics, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies, Q160,

An Economic Evaluation of Research into the Improved Management of the Annual Grass Weed Vulpia in Temperate Pastures in South-Eastern Australia

NSW Agriculture has a history of research investment in managing weed problems in the temperate pasture areas. One focus of that research has been on the development of improved management practices for the major annual grass weed vulpia. Recent surveys have found that weeds comprised up to 80% of pasture biomass in some temperate areas and that typical vulpia contents are between 30 and 40% of pasture biomass. Temperate pasture degradation is recognised as being a major contributor to the wider environmental problems of soil erosion, salinity and acidity. This evaluation related to a project (1996-2002) that focussed on the vulpia problem in the New South Wales temperate pasture areas. The benefits of that research were measured as the difference in the economic returns from the project (the with-research scenario) and those that would have resulted if the project had not been initiated (the without-research scenario). The results indicated high levels of economic benefits from the vulpia project. The annual net project benefit had a mean value of $58 million. The benefit-cost analysis generated a mean NPV of$196.9 million and a mean BCR of 22.2. These results demonstrate that research by NSW Agriculture into the improved management of vulpia has the potential to generate substantial long-term economic benefits. Other socio-economic aspects of the results showed that wool producers outside the New South Wales temperate areas lost economic surplus (from a mean -$21.7 million to -$47.8 million) because they were unable to adopt the cost-reducing technology and faced a reduced wool price. All wool consumers gained from vulpia research because of expanded wool production and lower wool prices. Improved vulpia management is also considered to produce important environmental benefits by encouraging a greater use of deep-rooted perennial grasses and the beneficial effects of these on mitigating soil problems and reducing water table discharges.benefit cost analysis, research evaluation, annual grass weeds, vulpia, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies, Q160,

Economic benefits of public investment in weed management: the case of vulpia in south-eastern Australia’s temperate pasture areas

The present paper reports an economic evaluation of the long-term benefits to Australia of research by the Cooperative Research Centre for Weed Management Systems (CRC) into the improved management of vulpia , the major annual grass weed of temperate pastures in New South Wales and Victoria. Vulpia reduces livestock production by competition with more desirable pasture species, by the production of low quality feed at critical times of the grazing cycle, and by injury to animals. A 20-year stochastic benefit-cost analysis indicated that reducing the impacts of vulpia in these pastures produced a mean net present value of # A58.3 million and a mean benefit-cost ratio of 33:1. Temperate pasture zone wool producers would capture the largest shares of these benefits, Australian consumers would gain, but wool producers in the rest of Australia would suffer welfare losses from vulpia reductions in the temperate pasture zones.Agricultural and Food Policy, Farm Management,

Sheep CRC Renewal Proposal: Economic Evaluation of the Proposed Scientific Themes

The Australian sheep industry and its associated research and development agencies have developed a proposal for the CRC for Sheep Industry Innovation. “Top-down” and “bottomup” procedures were used to assess the expected economic benefits from this proposal. Formal “with-CRC” and “without-CRC” scenarios were defined for each product and each research theme. Relevant costs were similarly defined. The requested investment by the Commonwealth and the Australian sheep industry in the CRC is assessed relative to a scenario where an alternative, lower cost research program into this industry is implemented. These extra resources have a discounted value of about $34 million over the 25-year period of this evaluation. These resources are sufficient to allow some new research components to be added to the portfolio, some existing components to produce better outcomes, and a more targeted approach to development and extension that speeds up and increases the adoption of the new technologies that are generated by the research program. The benefit from this extra investment and consequent research effort is estimated to be worth about$518 million in present value terms, which is far in excess of the marginal investment. Thus every $1 of these extra resources brought into the Australian sheep industry through funding the proposed CRC is expected to return around$15.30 to the industry in present value terms.wool, sheep meat, research and development, economic, evaluation, Australia, Agribusiness, Livestock Production/Industries, Production Economics, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies, Q160,

Dynamic general equilibrium analysis of improved weed management in Australia's winter cropping systems

A recent analysis indicated that the direct financial cost of weeds to Australia’s winter grain sectorwas approximately $A1.2bn in 1998–1999. Costs of thismagnitude represent a large recurring productivity loss in an agricultural sector that is sufficient to impact significantly on regional economies.Using amulti-regional dynamic computable general equilibrium model, we simulate the general equilibrium effects of a hypothetical successful campaign to reduce the economic costs of weeds. We assume that an additional$50m of R&D spread over five years is targeted at reducing the additional costs and reduced yields arising from weeds in various broadacre crops. Following this R&D effort, one-tenth of the losses arising from weeds is temporarily eliminated, with a diminishing benefit in succeeding years. At the national level, there is a welfare increase of $700m in discounted net present value terms. The regions with relatively high concentrations of winter crops experience small temporary macroeconomic gains.CGE modelling, dynamics, weed management, Crop Production/Industries,

2023 International Consensus on Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation and Emergency Cardiovascular Care Science With Treatment Recommendations: Summary From the Basic Life Support; Advanced Life Support; Pediatric Life Support; Neonatal Life Support; Education, Implementation, and Teams; and First Aid Task Forces

The International Liaison Committee on Resuscitation engages in a continuous review of new, peer-reviewed, published cardiopulmonary resuscitation and first aid science. Draft Consensus on Science With Treatment Recommendations are posted online throughout the year, and this annual summary provides more concise versions of the final Consensus on Science With Treatment Recommendations from all task forces for the year. Topics addressed by systematic reviews this year include resuscitation of cardiac arrest from drowning, extracorporeal cardiopulmonary resuscitation for adults and children, calcium during cardiac arrest, double sequential defibrillation, neuroprognostication after cardiac arrest for adults and children, maintaining normal temperature after preterm birth, heart rate monitoring methods for diagnostics in neonates, detection of exhaled carbon dioxide in neonates, family presence during resuscitation of adults, and a stepwise approach to resuscitation skills training. Members from 6 International Liaison Committee on Resuscitation task forces have assessed, discussed, and debated the quality of the evidence, using Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation criteria, and their statements include consensus treatment recommendations. Insights into the deliberations of the task forces are provided in the Justification and Evidence-to-Decision Framework Highlights sections. In addition, the task forces list priority knowledge gaps for further research. Additional topics are addressed with scoping reviews and evidence updates

2023 International Consensus on Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation and Emergency Cardiovascular Care Science With Treatment Recommendations: Summary From the Basic Life Support; Advanced Life Support; Pediatric Life Support; Neonatal Life Support; Education, Implementation, and Teams; and First Aid Task Forces

The International Liaison Committee on Resuscitation engages in a continuous review of new, peer-reviewed, published cardiopulmonary resuscitation and first aid science. Draft Consensus on Science With Treatment Recommendations are posted online throughout the year, and this annual summary provides more concise versions of the final Consensus on Science With Treatment Recommendations from all task forces for the year. Topics addressed by systematic reviews this year include resuscitation of cardiac arrest from drowning, extracorporeal cardiopulmonary resuscitation for adults and children, calcium during cardiac arrest, double sequential defibrillation, neuroprognostication after cardiac arrest for adults and children, maintaining normal temperature after preterm birth, heart rate monitoring methods for diagnostics in neonates, detection of exhaled carbon dioxide in neonates, family presence during resuscitation of adults, and a stepwise approach to resuscitation skills training. Members from 6 International Liaison Committee on Resuscitation task forces have assessed, discussed, and debated the quality of the evidence, using Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation criteria, and their statements include consensus treatment recommendations. Insights into the deliberations of the task forces are provided in the Justification and Evidence-to-Decision Framework Highlights sections. In addition, the task forces list priority knowledge gaps for further research. Additional topics are addressed with scoping reviews and evidence updates