On the assimilation of instructions : stimulus-response associations are implemented but not stimulus-task associations

The assimilation of instructions consists of two stages. First, a task model is formed on the basis of instructions. Second, this model is implemented, resulting in highly accessible representations, which enable reflexive behavior that guides the application of instructions. Research frequently demonstrated that instructions can lead to automatic response activation, which indicates that stimulus-response associations can be implemented on the basis of a task model. However, instructions not only indicate how to respond (stimulus-response mappings) but also when (i.e., the conditions under which mappings apply). Accordingly, we tested whether instruction implementation leads both to the activation of stimulus-response associations and of associations between stimuli and the context or task in which the instructed stimulus-response mappings are relevant (i.e., stimulus-task associations). In four experiments, we measured if implementing newly instructed stimulus-response mappings also leads to bivalence costs (i.e., shorter latencies when a stimulus can only occur in one task compared to when it can occur in two tasks), which indicate the presence of stimulus-task associations. We consistently observed automatic response activation on the basis of instructions, but no bivalence costs. A discrepancy thus exists between information conveyed in an instructed task model and the elements of that task model that are implemented. We propose that future research on automatic effects of instructions should broaden its scope and focus both on the formation of an instructed task model and its subsequent implementation

Models and methods for economic policy; 60 years of evolution at CPB

The Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB) has been involved in econometric model building since its foundation in 1945. During the 60 years of model building and use reviewed in this Discussion Paper, CPB's models have evolved significantly. Over this period, a shift of emphasis can be observed from econometrics and empiricism to economic theory. New questions from policymakers and new features in the national economy have guided research, while new developments in econometrics and economic theory were taken on board wherever they helped to improve the quality and scope of the analysis. Although considerable progress has been achieved in several spheres, the models continue to be riddled with some long-standing limitations and weaknesses which the model users should take into account.

Are houses overvalued in the Netherlands?

The movement of the level of house prices in the Netherlands between 1980 and 2007 is explainable fairly well by fundamental supply and demand factors. Empirical research has shown that the overvaluation of approximately 10% that existed in 2003 shrunk to approximately 0% in 2007. This was not caused by downward correction of house prices, but by the circumstance that the increase of the actual house price between 2003 and 2007 lagged behind the increase of the long-term value of the house price. Therefore, this does not confirm the IMF's recently published research results, indicating that approximately 30% of the house price increase between 1997 and 2007 cannot be explained by fundamental factors.

Decomposition of GDP-growth in some European Countries and the United States

The composition of economic growth can be analyzed in two different ways. In the 'traditional method' for the decomposition of GDP growth, total imports are deducted from exports. This approach underestimates the importance of exports for the growth in GDP, and overestimates the importance of domestic expenditure categories. In the alternative methodology proposed in this paper, imports are allocated to all expenditure categories. Although this 'import-adjusted method' is more complex than the 'traditional method', it has the considerable advantage that the contributions of the expenditure categories to GDP growth provide a better understanding of why GDP growth decelerates or accelerates. The methodology and data requirements for calculating the import content of final demand, and the implications for the decomposition of real GDP growth, are discussed. For six European countries and the United States, the paper shows that applying the alternative methodology provides rather a different economic story.

Decomposition of GDP growth in European countries; different methods tell different stories

The composition of economic growth can be analysed in two different ways. In the 'traditional method' for the decomposition of GDP growth, total imports are deducted from exports. This approach underestimates the importance of exports for the growth in GDP, and overestimates the importance of domestic expenditure categories. In the alternative methodology proposed in this paper, imports are allocated to all expenditure categories. Although this 'import-adjusted method' is more complex than the 'traditional method', it has the considerable advantage that the contributions of the expenditure categories to GDP growth provide a better understanding of why GDP growth decelerates or accelerates. The methodology for calculating the import content of final demand, and the implications for the decomposition of real GDP growth, are discussed. For six individual European countries and the euro area, the paper shows that applying the alternative methodology provides rather a different economic story.