Modelling the pension system in an overlapping-generations general equilibrium modelling framework

This article presents a theoretical contribution to the field of overlapping-generations general equilibrium modelling, i.e. an upgrade of this branch of models with a pension system. Within the pension block we model both the first pension pillar, financed on a pay-as-you-go basis, and the fully-funded second pillar of the Slovenian pension system. The modelling of the first pension pillar is based on cash flows of the mandatory pension insurance institution, the relationship between the pension base and the pension, and the process of harmonising pension growth to wage growth. The modelling of the second pillar centres on implementation of the liquidity constraint. Use was made of supplementary pension profiles, and the ratio between premia paid and pensions paid out from supplementary pension insurance. The category of total pension was also introduced, and the model ensured that at every point households adjusted the scope of labour supply and their current consumption towards the target total pension.first pension pillar; general equilibrium models; liquidity constraint; MCP; overlapping generations; PAYG; pension system; second pension pillar

A Quarterly Econometric Model of the Slovenian Economy

The article represents a construction of a quarterly econometric model of the Slovenian economy and an analysis of fundamental relationships of the Slovenian economy. For this purpose we formed a system of identities, consistent with the national accounts, and of stochastic equations, consistent with economic theory as well as institutional and constitutional characteristics of the Slovenian economy. The present econometric model of the Slovenian economy SIQM 2.1 consists of 97 equations and covers the period of 1997:1 – 2003:4. Adequacy of the model, i.e. its ability to reproduce the actual economic developments in the period under investigation, was verified by performing dynamic simulations. It was established that the results are econometrically satisfactory and in part even quite favourable.economic transformation, model construction and estimation, model evaluation and testing, simultaneous equation models, Slovenia

Supplementary pension insurance in Slovenia: an analysis with an overlapping-generations general equilibrium model

The article presents an analysis of supplementary pension insurance in Slovenia and its subsequent effects on welfare, macroeconomic variables and pension fund deficit with a dynamic OLG general equilibrium model. It has been established that the volume of supplementary pension saving is insufficient at present in Slovenia to compensate the deterioration of rights from the first pension pillar. Not only is the participation in the (voluntary) second pillar insufficient, but especially the premia are too low. The macro-economic consequences of introducing a fully-funded mandatory component of pension insurance would not be unfavourable. Increased pension saving reduces current consumption and increases the labour supply of active generations, but also increases the volume of disposable savings, so the increased investment may increase capital stock and production, which leads to an increase in economic growth and potential future consumption. Increased labour supply of insured persons would also lead to a higher volume of contributions for mandatory pension insurance, which would reduce the state pension fund deficit.general equilibrium models; mandatory second pillar; macroeconomic effects; OLG-GE; Slovenia; supplementary pension saving; welfare analysis

Varying the parameters of the Slovenian pension system: an analysis with an overlapping-generations general equilibrium model

The article presents an analysis of welfare effects in Slovenia, an analysis of macroeconomic effects of the Slovenian pension reform and an analysis of effects of the pension fund deficit on sustainability of Slovenian public finances with a dynamic OLG general equilibrium model. Stress was layed upon varying two parameters of the current pension system; the age of retirement and the indexation rate of pensions. It was established that by tightening these parameters the elderly would lose, while the present and future generations would gain. The macroeconomic effects were in accordance with expectations; the employment level increased, while the effects of tightened parameters on real consumption were negative. Since the PAYG burden on incomes decreased, the investment activity and thus the capital stock increased somewhat as well. Nevertheless, the long-term impact on the real GDP appeared to be ambiguous. Without doubt one has to take into account the demographic slowdown of GDP growth. Finally, tightening the parameters of the pension system substantially increased the long-term sustainability of the pension system; while lower indexation level of pension considerably decreased the deficit of the public pension fund, increase of retirement age was even able to delay the incidence of additional deficit.general equilibrium models, indexation of pensions; macroeconomic effects; OLG-GE; PAYG; pension system; retirement age; Slovenia; welfare analysis

Econometric Estimation of Parameters of Preservation of Perishable Goods in Cold Logistic Chains

Paper discusses the parameters of preservation of perishable goods in cold logistic chains. The key parameters are the intensity of deterioration of goods, the conservation effect of perishable goods and the delay of activation of the conservation effect. The values of these parameters tell us the quantity of the product being deteriorated in the logistic chain and the extent to which the deterioration can be alleviated. Econometric estimation thus presents us with the quantity effects of preservation procedures, whereas the financial effects can be derived using the proper price categories in the calculation of the net present value or the annuity stream. In this way one can determine whether the implementation of preservation procedures is more rational than the purchase of attainable insurance policy.cold chains, Cold Chains Management, econometric estimation, intensity of deterioration, conservation effect, Input – Output analysis, Laplace transforms, MRP

On the Role of Memory in an Asset Pricing Model with Heterogeneous Beliefs

The paper discusses the role of memory in an asset pricing model with heterogeneous beliefs. In particular, we were interested in how memory in the fitness measure affects the stability of evolutionary adaptive systems and the survival of technical trading. In order to obtain an insight into this matter, two cases were analyzed: a two-type case of fundamentalists versus contrarians and a three-type case of fundamentalists versus opposite biases. It has been established that increasing memory strength has a stabilizing effect on dynamics, though it is not able to eliminate speculative traders’ short-run profit-seeking behaviour from the market. Furthermore, opposite biases do not seem to lead to chaotic dynamics, even when there are no costs for fundamentalists. Apparently some (strong) trend extrapolator beliefs are needed in order to trigger chaotic asset price fluctuations.asset pricing, biased beliefs, contrarians, fitness measure, fundamentalists, heterogeneous beliefs, memory strength, stability

The ageing population and the associated challenges of the Slovenian pension system

The article presents an analysis of welfare effects in Slovenia, an analysis of supplementary pension insurance in Slovenia and an analysis of effects of the pension fund deficit on sustainability of Slovenian public finances. Stress was layed upon varying the parameters of the current Slovenian pension system and introducing mandatory supplementary pension insurance in Slovenia. It has been established that while young generations and new generations will lose from the pension reform, even complete implementation of the reform might not be sufficient to compensate unfavourable demographic developments. The volume of supplementary pension saving is insufficient at present in Slovenia to compensate the deterioration of rights from the first pension pillar. Not only is the participation in the (voluntary) second pillar insufficient, but especially the premia are too low. The level of expected deficit of the PAYG-financed state pension fund seems to be worrying, though higher activity level among the elderly would subsequently increase the volume of contributions to the first pension pillar, thus also reducing the state pension fund deficit.general equilibrium models; PAYG; pension system; supplementary pension saving; sustainability of public finances; Slovenia; welfare analysis

Economic Valuation of Environmental Values of the Landscape Development and Protection Area of Volcji Potok

When the market for a certain good is competitive enough, economic activities can be studied by the market pricing mechanism. Because this is usually not feasible in case of environmental goods with embodied natural and cultural heritage, particular methods for economic valuation of such goods have to be applied. The present article represents the economic valuation of the Landscape Development and Protection Area of Vol誩 Potok, which is an important Slovenian cultural landscape area with internationally recognized characteristics. For this purpose we have chosen the method of contingent valuation and performed an econometric analysis of stated and true willingness-to-pay. We obtained the value of willingness-to-pay and determined its determinants. We also made an attempt to control for different biases that arise in such analyses. At last, we used the adjusted average individual value of willingness-to-pay to calculate the aggregate willingness-to-pay.bivariate probit model; contingent valuation method; discrete choice method; embedding effects; environmental values; starting point bias; willingness-to-pay