The Predictability of Aggregate Stock Market Returns: Evidence Based on Glamour Stocks

We find that annual excess returns on the stock market index are negatively related to the returns of glamour stocks in the previous 36-month period. In contrast, neither returns of value stocks nor aggregate stock market returns, purged of glamour stock effects, have any predictive power. In addition, the excess returns on the aggregate market are negatively skewed when the prior returns of glamour stocks are high. Finally, the inclusion of term premium, default premium, aggregate dividend yield, and the consumption-to-wealth ratio (CAY) as control variables do not materially alter the predictive power of prior glamour stock returns.

The Impact of Legal and Political Institutions on Equity Trading Costs: A Cross-Country Analysis

We conjecture that macro-level institutions affect equity trading costs through their impact on information risk and investor participation. In a study of trading costs for 412 NYSE-listed American Depository Receipts (ADRs) from 44 countries, we find that, after controlling for firm-level determinants of trading costs, effective spreads and price impact of trades are significantly lower for stocks from countries with better ratings for judicial efficiency, accounting standards, and political stability. Trading costs are significantly higher for stocks from French civil law countries than from common law countries. Overall, we conclude that improvements in legal and political institutions will lower the cost of liquidity in financial markets. Copyright 2006, Oxford University Press.