Local indeterminacy in two-sector overlapping generations models

In this paper, we consider a two-sector two-periods overlapping generations model with inelastic labor, consumption in both periods of life and homothetic CES preferences. We assume in a first step that the consumption levels are gross substitutes and the consumption good is capital intensive. We prove that when dynamic efficiency holds, the occurrence of sunspot fluctuations requires low enough values for the sectoral elasticities of capital-labor substitution. On the contrary, under dynamic inefficiency, local indeterminacy may be obtained without any restriction on the input substitutability properties. Assuming in a second step that gross substitutability in consumption does not hold, we show that sunspot fluctuations arise under dynamic efficiency without any restriction on the sign of the capital intensity difference across sectors and provided the sectoral elasticities of capital-labor substitution admit intermediary values.Two-sector OLG model, social production function, dynamic (in)efficiency, gross substitutability in consumption, local indeterminacy, sunspot fluctuations

Local and global indeterminacy in two-sector models of endogenous growth

In this paper we consider a two-sector endogenous growth model where the productions of the final good and human capital require economy-wide external effects. Assuming constant returns to scale at the private and social levels, we show that local and global indeterminacy of equilibrium paths are compatible with any values for the elasticity of intertemporal substitution in consumption and any sign for the capital intensity difference across the two sectors.Two-sector model, endogenous growth, economy-wide externalities, local and global indeterminacy

The role of the wealth distribution on output volatility

We explore the link between wealth inequality and business cycle fluctuations in a two-sector neoclassical growth model with endogenous labor and heterogeneous agents. Assuming that wealth inequality is described by the distribution of shares of capital, we show that in the most plausible situations wealth equality is a stabilizing factor. In particular, when wealth is Pareto distributed and preferences generate non-linear absolute risk tolerance indices, a rise in the Gini index may only be associated to a rise in volatility. When individual preferences are such that the individual absolute risk tolerance indices are linear, as with HARA utility, even a low level of taste heterogeneity ensures that a rise in inequality may not reduce volatility, and this independently of the wealth distribution. Finally, we note that such a clear result is at odd with the existing related literature.

The role of the wealth distribution on output volatility

We explore the link between wealth inequality and business cycle fluctuations in a two-sector neoclassical growth model with endogenous labor and heterogeneous agents. Assuming that wealth inequality is described by the distribution of shares of capital, we show that in the most plausible situations wealth equality is a stabilizing factor. In particular, when wealth is Pareto distributed and preferences generate non linear absolute risk tolerance indices, a rise in the Gini index may only be associated to a rise in volatility.When individual preferences are such that the individual absolute risk tolerance indices are linear, as with HARA utility, even a low level of taste heterogeneity ensures that a rise in inequality may not reduce volatility, and this independently of the wealth distribution.Finally, we note that such a clear result is at odd with the existing related literature.Wealth Inequality, Pareto distribution, Gini index, Elastic Labor Supply, Macroeconomic Volatility, Endogenous Equilibrium Business Cycles.

Local indeterminacy under dynamic efficiency in a two-sector overlapping generations economy

We consider a two-sector two-periods overlapping generations model with inelastic labor, consumption in both periods of life and homothetic CES preferences. Assuming gross substitutability and a capital intensive consumption good, we prove that when dynamic eciency holds, local indeterminacy and sunspot fluctuations occur with low enough values for the sectoral elasticities of capital-labor substitution and we illustrate this finding within a standard example. This result shows that some scale policy rules can prevent the existence of business-cycle fluctuations in the economy by driving it to the optimal steady state as soon as it is announced, and thus shows that Reichlin's [9] influential conclusion is a robust property in a two-sector OLG economy.Two-sector OLG model, dynamic efficiency, gross substitutability in consumption, local indeterminacy, stabilization policy

Indeterminacy and business-cycle fluctuations in a two-sector monetary economy with externalities

We consider a two-sector economy with money-in-the-utility-function and sector-specific externalities. We provide conditions on technologies leading to the existence of local indeterminacy for any value of the interest rate elasticity of money demand, provided the elasticity of intertemporal substitution in consumption is large enough. Moreover, we show that the occurrence of multiple equilibria is intimately linked with the existence of a flip bifurcation and period-two cycles.Money-in-the-utility-function ; two-sector economy ; sector-specific externalities ; indeterminacy ; period-two cycles ; sunspot equilibria

Multiple equilibria in two-sector monetary economies: an interplay between preferences and the timing for money

In this paper, we study the occurrence of local indeterminacy in two-sector monetary economies. In order to capture the credit market imperfections and the liquidity services of money, we consider a general MIUF model with two alternative timings in monetary payments: the Cash-In-Advance timing, in which the cash available to buy goods is money in the consumers' hands after they leave the bond market but before they enter the goods market, and the Cash-After-the-Market timing, in which agents hold money for transactions after leaving the goods market. We consider three standard specifications of preferences: the additively separable formulation, the Greenwood-Hercovitz-Huffman (GHH) [18] formulation and the King-Plosser-Rebelo (KPR) [21] formulation. First, we show that for all the three types of preferences, local indeterminacy easily arises under the CIA timing with a low enough interest rate elasticity of money demand. Second, we show that with the CAM timing, determinacy always holds under separable preferences, but local indeterminacy can arise in the case of GHH and KPR preferences. We thus prove that compared to aggregate models, two-sector models provide new rooms for local indeterminacy when non-separable standard preferences are considered.Money-in-the-utility-function, Indeterminacy, Sunspot equilibria

Macroeconomic volatility and welfare loss under free-trade in two-country models

This paper investigates the interlinkage in the business cycles based on sunspot fluctuations of large-country economies in a free-trade equilibrium. We consider a two-country, two-good, two-factor general equilibrium model with Cobb-Douglastechnologies, sector-specific externalities and linear preferences. We also assume constant social returns in the investment good sector but decreasing social returns in the consumption good sector. We first identify the determinants of each country's accumulation pattern in autarky equilibrium, and second we show that some country's sunspot fluctuations may spread throughout the world once trade opens even if the other country has determinacy under autarky. We thus prove that under free-trade, globalization and market integration may have destabilizing effects on a country's competitive equilibrium. Finally, we characterize a configuration in which opening to international trade improves the stationary welfare at the world level but deteriorates the stationary welfare of the country which imports investment goods and exports consumption goods. We thus show that in opposition to the standard belief, international trade may not be beneficial to all trading partners in the long run. Moreover, we prove that for some country, international trade may have contrasted consequences as it may at the same time improve the stationary welfare and have a destabilizing effect.Two-country general equilibrium model, free-trade, local indeterminacy, sunspot fluctuations, capital intensities, decreasing social retur

Aggregate instability under balanced-budget consumption taxes: a re-examination

We re-examine the destabilizing role of balanced-budget fiscal policy rules based on consumption taxation. Using a one-sector model with infinitely-lived households, and assuming that preferences are of the Greenwood-Hercovitz-Huffman [8] (GHH) type, we show that non-linear consumption taxation may destabilize the economy, promoting expectation-driven fluctuations, if the tax rate is counter-cyclical. We also exhibit a Laffer curve, which explains the multiplicity of steady states when the tax rate is counter-cyclical. All these results are mainly driven by the absence of income effect. Finally, a numerical illustration shows that consumption taxation may be a source of instability for most OECD countries.Indeterminacy; endogenous business cycles; consumption taxes; balanced-budget rule; infinite-horizon model

Global Externalities, Endogenous Growth and Sunspot fluctuations

We consider a two-sector economy with Cobb-Douglas technologies,labor-augmenting global external effects and increasing social returns. We prove the existence of a normalized balanced growth path and we give conditions for the occurrence of sunspot fluctuations that are compatible with both types of capital intensity configuration at the private level provided the elasticity of intertemporal substitution in consumption admits intermediary values. We finally show that the existence of period-two cycles requires the consumption good to be physical capital intensive at the private level.Global externalities; increasing returns; endogenous growth; intertemporal substitution in consumption; indeterminacy; sunspot fluctuations; period-two cycles