Mapping 123 million neonatal, infant and child deaths between 2000 and 2017

Since 2000, many countries have achieved considerable success in improving child survival, but localized progress remains unclear. To inform efforts towards United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 3.2—to end preventable child deaths by 2030—we need consistently estimated data at the subnational level regarding child mortality rates and trends. Here we quantified, for the period 2000–2017, the subnational variation in mortality rates and number of deaths of neonates, infants and children under 5 years of age within 99 low- and middle-income countries using a geostatistical survival model. We estimated that 32% of children under 5 in these countries lived in districts that had attained rates of 25 or fewer child deaths per 1,000 live births by 2017, and that 58% of child deaths between 2000 and 2017 in these countries could have been averted in the absence of geographical inequality. This study enables the identification of high-mortality clusters, patterns of progress and geographical inequalities to inform appropriate investments and implementations that will help to improve the health of all populations

Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980-2017, and forecasts to 2030, for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017

Background Understanding the patterns of HIV/AIDS epidemics is crucial to tracking and monitoring the progress of prevention and control efforts in countries. We provide a comprehensive assessment of the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, mortality, and coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART) for 1980–2017 and forecast these estimates to 2030 for 195 countries and territories. Methods We determined a modelling strategy for each country on the basis of the availability and quality of data. For countries and territories with data from population-based seroprevalence surveys or antenatal care clinics, we estimated prevalence and incidence using an open-source version of the Estimation and Projection Package—a natural history model originally developed by the UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Modelling, and Projections. For countries with cause-specific vital registration data, we corrected data for garbage coding (ie, deaths coded to an intermediate, immediate, or poorly defined cause) and HIV misclassification. We developed a process of cohort incidence bias adjustment to use information on survival and deaths recorded in vital registration to back-calculate HIV incidence. For countries without any representative data on HIV, we produced incidence estimates by pulling information from observed bias in the geographical region. We used a re-coded version of the Spectrum model (a cohort component model that uses rates of disease progression and HIV mortality on and off ART) to produce agesex-specific incidence, prevalence, and mortality, and treatment coverage results for all countries, and forecast these measures to 2030 using Spectrum with inputs that were extended on the basis of past trends in treatment scale-up and new infections. Findings Global HIV mortality peaked in 2006 with 1·95 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval 1·87–2·04) and has since decreased to 0·95 million deaths (0·91–1·01) in 2017. New cases of HIV globally peaked in 1999 (3·16 million, 2·79–3·67) and since then have gradually decreased to 1·94 million (1·63–2·29) in 2017. These trends, along with ART scale-up, have globally resulted in increased prevalence, with 36·8 million (34·8–39·2) people living with HIV in 2017. Prevalence of HIV was highest in southern sub-Saharan Africa in 2017, and countries in the region had ART coverage ranging from 65·7% in Lesotho to 85·7% in eSwatini. Our forecasts showed that 54 countries will meet the UNAIDS target of 81% ART coverage by 2020 and 12 countries are on track to meet 90% ART coverage by 2030. Forecasted results estimate that few countries will meet the UNAIDS 2020 and 2030 mortality and incidence targets. Interpretation Despite progress in reducing HIV-related mortality over the past decade, slow decreases in incidence, combined with the current context of stagnated funding for related interventions, mean that many countries are not on track to reach the 2020 and 2030 global targets for reduction in incidence and mortality. With a growing population of people living with HIV, it will continue to be a major threat to public health for years to come. The pace of progress needs to be hastened by continuing to expand access to ART and increasing investments in proven HIV prevention initiatives that can be scaled up to have population-level impact

Early Response to COVID-19 in the Philippines

Low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) with weak health systems are especially vulnerable during the COVID-19 pandemic. In this paper, we describe the challenges and early response of the Philippine Government, focusing on travel restrictions, community interventions, risk communication and testing, from 30 January 2020 when the first case was reported, to 21 March 2020. Our narrative provides a better understanding of the specific limitations of the Philippines and other LMICs, which could serve as basis for future action to improve national strategies for current and future public health outbreaks and emergencies

Estimating Global Injuries Morbidity and Mortality: Methods and Data Used in the Global Burden of Disease 2017 Study

Background While there is a long history of measuring death and disability from injuries, modern research methods must account for the wide spectrum of disability that can occur in an injury, and must provide estimates with sufficient demographic, geographical and temporal detail to be useful for policy makers. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 study used methods to provide highly detailed estimates of global injury burden that meet these criteria. Methods In this study, we report and discuss the methods used in GBD 2017 for injury morbidity and mortality burden estimation. In summary, these methods included estimating cause-specific mortality for every cause of injury, and then estimating incidence for every cause of injury. Non-fatal disability for each cause is then calculated based on the probabilities of suffering from different types of bodily injury experienced. Results GBD 2017 produced morbidity and mortality estimates for 38 causes of injury. Estimates were produced in terms of incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability, cause-specific mortality, years of life lost and disability-adjusted life-years for a 28-year period for 22 age groups, 195 countries and both sexes. Conclusions GBD 2017 demonstrated a complex and sophisticated series of analytical steps using the largest known database of morbidity and mortality data on injuries. GBD 2017 results should be used to help inform injury prevention policy making and resource allocation. We also identify important avenues for improving injury burden estimation in the future

Effectiveness of Peer Counseling and Membership in Breastfeeding Support Groups in Promoting Optimal Breastfeeding Behaviors in the Philippines

Background The prevalence of early initiation of breastfeeding and exclusive breastfeeding (EBF) at 6 months remain low in the Philippines. To help meet the 90% early initiation of breastfeeding target and to improve infant and young child feeding practices in the Philippines, the Millennium Development Goals - Fund 2030 Joint Programme (JP) on Ensuring Food Security and Nutrition for Children 0–24 months old was implemented. We aimed to determine the effectiveness of visits by peer counselors during pregnancy and after delivery, and membership in breastfeeding support groups in promoting these optimal breastfeeding practices. Methods We used data from the Endline Survey of the JP to study the effects of prenatal and postnatal peer counselor visits, and membership in breastfeeding support groups, and their possible interactions with initiation of breastfeeding within 1 hour of birth among children aged 0 to 24 months and EBF at 6 months among children aged 6 to 24 months, while adjusting for confounding. We used logistic regression methods for survey data to assess these associations. Results Of the 2343 mother-infant pairs, only 1500 (63.1%) practiced early initiation of breastfeeding. Of the 1865 children aged 6 months or older, only 621 (34.7%) were exclusively breastfed at 6 months. After adjusting for confounding variables, there was no strong evidence that peer counselor visits were associated with early initiation or EBF at 6 months. However, members of breastfeeding support groups had 1.49 times higher odds of early initiation of breastfeeding (95% CI [Confidence Interval] 1.12, 1.98) and 1.65 times higher odds of EBF (95% CI 1.20, 2.24) compared to those who were not members of breastfeeding support groups. There was no interaction between the different exposure variables and early initiation and EBF at 6 months. Conclusions Our findings suggest breastfeeding support groups may be institutionalized to promote both early initiation of breastfeeding and EBF in the Philippines, while the role of peer counselors in promoting optimal breastfeeding behaviors should be further reviewed. Our suggestion to integrate non-healthcare professionals to promote early initiation of breastfeeding and EBF could be tested in future intervention studies

COVID-19 Vaccine Brand Hesitancy and Other Challenges to Vaccination in the Philippines

Effective and safe COVID-19 vaccines have been developed at a rapid and unprecedented pace to control the spread of the virus, and prevent hospitalisations and deaths. However, COVID-19 vaccine uptake is challenged by vaccine hesitancy and anti-vaccination sentiments, a global shortage of vaccine supply, and inequitable vaccine distribution especially among low- and middle-income countries including the Philippines. In this paper, we explored vaccination narratives and challenges experienced and observed by Filipinos during the early vaccination period. We interviewed 35 individuals from a subsample of 1,599 survey respondents 18 years and older in the Philippines. The interviews were conducted in Filipino, Cebuano, and/or English via online platforms such as Zoom or via phone call. All interviews were recorded, transcribed verbatim, translated, and analysed using inductive content analysis. To highlight the complex reasons for delaying and/or refusing COVID-19 vaccines, we embedded our findings within the social ecological model. Our analysis showed that individual perceptions play a major role in the decision to vaccinate. Such perceptions are shaped by exposure to (mis)information amplified by the media, the community, and the health system. Social networks may either positively or negatively impact vaccination uptake, depending on their views on vaccines. Political issues contribute to vaccine brand hesitancy, resulting in vaccination delays and refusals. Perceptions about the inefficiency and inflexibility of the system also create additional barriers to the vaccine rollout in the country, especially among vulnerable and marginalised groups. Recognising and addressing concerns at all levels are needed to improve COVID-19 vaccination uptake and reach. Strengthening health literacy is a critical tool to combat misinformation that undermines vaccine confidence. Vaccination systems must also consider the needs of marginalised and vulnerable groups to ensure their access to vaccines. In all these efforts to improve vaccine uptake, governments will need to engage with communities to ‘co-create’ solutions

Data Sharing in Southeast Asia During the First Wave of the COVID-19 Pandemic

Background: When a new pathogen emerges, consistent case reporting is critical for public health surveillance. Tracking cases geographically and over time is key for understanding the spread of an infectious disease and effectively designing interventions to contain and mitigate an epidemic. In this paper we describe the reporting systems on COVID-19 in Southeast Asia during the first wave in 2020, and highlight the impact of specific reporting methods. Methods: We reviewed key epidemiological variables from various sources including a regionally comprehensive dataset, national trackers, dashboards, and case bulletins for 11 countries during the first wave of the epidemic in Southeast Asia. We recorded timelines of shifts in epidemiological reporting systems and described the differences in how epidemiological data are reported across countries and timepoints. Results: Our findings suggest that countries in Southeast Asia generally reported precise and detailed epidemiological data during the first wave of the pandemic. Changes in reporting rarely occurred for demographic data, while reporting shifts for geographic and temporal data were frequent. Most countries provided COVID-19 individual-level data daily using HTML and PDF, necessitating scraping and extraction before data could be used in analyses. Conclusion: Our study highlights the importance of more nuanced analyses of COVID-19 epidemiological data within and across countries because of the frequent shifts in reporting. As governments continue to respond to impacts on health and the economy, data sharing also needs to be prioritised given its foundational role in policymaking, and in the implementation and evaluation of interventions

Mapping geographical inequalities in childhood diarrhoeal morbidity and mortality in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000–17: analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background Across low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), one in ten deaths in children younger than 5 years is attributable to diarrhoea. The substantial between-country variation in both diarrhoea incidence and mortality is attributable to interventions that protect children, prevent infection, and treat disease. Identifying subnational regions with the highest burden and mapping associated risk factors can aid in reducing preventable childhood diarrhoea. Methods We used Bayesian model-based geostatistics and a geolocated dataset comprising 15072746 children younger than 5 years from 466 surveys in 94 LMICs, in combination with findings of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017, to estimate posterior distributions of diarrhoea prevalence, incidence, and mortality from 2000 to 2017. From these data, we estimated the burden of diarrhoea at varying subnational levels (termed units) by spatially aggregating draws, and we investigated the drivers of subnational patterns by creating aggregated risk factor estimates. Findings The greatest declines in diarrhoeal mortality were seen in south and southeast Asia and South America, where 54·0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 38·1–65·8), 17·4% (7·7–28·4), and 59·5% (34·2–86·9) of units, respectively, recorded decreases in deaths from diarrhoea greater than 10%. Although children in much of Africa remain at high risk of death due to diarrhoea, regions with the most deaths were outside Africa, with the highest mortality units located in Pakistan. Indonesia showed the greatest within-country geographical inequality; some regions had mortality rates nearly four times the average country rate. Reductions in mortality were correlated to improvements in water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) or reductions in child growth failure (CGF). Similarly, most high-risk areas had poor WASH, high CGF, or low oral rehydration therapy coverage. Interpretation By co-analysing geospatial trends in diarrhoeal burden and its key risk factors, we could assess candidate drivers of subnational death reduction. Further, by doing a counterfactual analysis of the remaining disease burden using key risk factors, we identified potential intervention strategies for vulnerable populations. In view of the demands for limited resources in LMICs, accurately quantifying the burden of diarrhoea and its drivers is important for precision public health

Global, Regional, and National Sex Differences in the Global Burden of Tuberculosis by HIV Status, 1990–2019: Results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background Tuberculosis is a major contributor to the global burden of disease, causing more than a million deaths annually. Given an emphasis on equity in access to diagnosis and treatment of tuberculosis in global health targets, evaluations of differences in tuberculosis burden by sex are crucial. We aimed to assess the levels and trends of the global burden of tuberculosis, with an emphasis on investigating differences in sex by HIV status for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. Methods We used a Bayesian hierarchical Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) platform to analyse 21 505 site-years of vital registration data, 705 site-years of verbal autopsy data, 825 site-years of sample-based vital registration data, and 680 site-years of mortality surveillance data to estimate mortality due to tuberculosis among HIV-negative individuals. We used a population attributable fraction approach to estimate mortality related to HIV and tuberculosis coinfection. A compartmental meta-regression tool (DisMod-MR 2.1) was then used to synthesise all available data sources, including prevalence surveys, annual case notifications, population-based tuberculin surveys, and tuberculosis cause-specific mortality, to produce estimates of incidence, prevalence, and mortality that were internally consistent. We further estimated the fraction of tuberculosis mortality that is attributable to independent effects of risk factors, including smoking, alcohol use, and diabetes, for HIV-negative individuals. For individuals with HIV and tuberculosis coinfection, we assessed mortality attributable to HIV risk factors including unsafe sex, intimate partner violence (only estimated among females), and injection drug use. We present 95% uncertainty intervals for all estimates. Findings Globally, in 2019, among HIV-negative individuals, there were 1·18 million (95% uncertainty interval 1·08–1·29) deaths due to tuberculosis and 8·50 million (7·45–9·73) incident cases of tuberculosis. Among HIV-positive individuals, there were 217 000 (153 000–279 000) deaths due to tuberculosis and 1·15 million (1·01–1·32) incident cases in 2019. More deaths and incident cases occurred in males than in females among HIV-negative individuals globally in 2019, with 342 000 (234 000–425 000) more deaths and 1·01 million (0·82–1·23) more incident cases in males than in females. Among HIV-positive individuals, 6250 (1820–11 400) more deaths and 81 100 (63 300–100 000) more incident cases occurred among females than among males in 2019. Age-standardised mortality rates among HIV-negative males were more than two times greater in 105 countries and age-standardised incidence rates were more than 1·5 times greater in 74 countries than among HIV-negative females in 2019. The fraction of global tuberculosis deaths among HIV-negative individuals attributable to alcohol use, smoking, and diabetes was 4·27 (3·69–5·02), 6·17 (5·48–7·02), and 1·17 (1·07–1·28) times higher, respectively, among males than among females in 2019. Among individuals with HIV and tuberculosis coinfection, the fraction of mortality attributable to injection drug use was 2·23 (2·03–2·44) times greater among males than females, whereas the fraction due to unsafe sex was 1·06 (1·05–1·08) times greater among females than males. Interpretation As countries refine national tuberculosis programmes and strategies to end the tuberculosis epidemic, the excess burden experienced by males is important. Interventions are needed to actively communicate, especially to men, the importance of early diagnosis and treatment. These interventions should occur in parallel with efforts to minimise excess HIV burden among women in the highest HIV burden countries that are contributing to excess HIV and tuberculosis coinfection burden for females. Placing a focus on tuberculosis burden among HIV-negative males and HIV and tuberculosis coinfection among females might help to diminish the overall burden of tuberculosis. This strategy will be crucial in reaching both equity and burden targets outlined by global health milestones. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation