Implications of the Multilateral Trade Agreement for Canadian Agriculture: A Computable General Equilibrium Evaluation

This study evaluates the impacts of the Uruguay Round Agreement (URA) on Canadian agriculture in a single-country general equilibrium framework. For this purpose a computable general equilibrium model of the Canadian economy that involves six agricultural and two non-agricultural sectors was constructed and calibrated on 1991 data. To assess whether Canadian agriculture benefits from the URA, two sets of anticipated changes in world prices, taken from studies of the global effects of the URA, were introduced into the model exogenously. The simulation experiments show that the minimum increases in world prices from global studies are too small to offset the negative effects on agriculture of the reductions in tariffs, export subsidies and domestic support. However, if world prices were to change by the maximum level of global projections, Canadian agricultural producers gain from the URA. The sectors that benefit the most are wheat, other grains, and processed foods, for which production and exports increase appreciably. Imports of milk and poultry products increase substantially and livestock sector imports also increase. Labour and capital demand increase in agriculture, particularly in the wheat and other grains sectors. The highest increase in factor returns in agriculture is for agricultural land. Since the export prices applied above are exogenously determined, a third experiment is conducted to determine the extent of the world price changes for agricultural exports that would offset the negative effects on sectoral domestic production of the URA policy commitments. This would require world prices that are about eleven per cent higher than in the base period for wheat and about ten per cent higher for other grains. The greatest increase in prices--by nearly thirteen per cent--would be required for the milk and poultry sector. More modest changes in world prices for the other agricultural sectors are needed to offset the impacts of the reductions in sectoral support necessitated by the URA. Most of these price changes lie within the ranges of world price projections from studies of the global effects of the URA.International Relations/Trade,

NON-PARAMETRIC APPROACHES TO ENVIRONMENTALLY SENSITIVE ANALYSIS OF ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE: TECHNICAL CHANGE AND PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH IN THE CANADIAN PULP AND PAPER INDUSTRY, 1959-1994

This study proposes non-parametric techniques for environmentally sensitive analysis of economic performance. The techniques are implemented using Canadian pulp and paper industry data covering the period from 1959 to 1994. The results indicate that productivity improvement has been more successful than conventional measures would suggest.Environmental Economics and Policy, Production Economics, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods,

PORK MARKET DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH PROJECT: MARKET POTENTIAL FOR ALBERTA'S PORK IN SELECTED U.S. MARKETS

The ethnic Asian market in Washington and Oregon constitutes a sizable niche market for fresh Canadian pork. Since California possesses a large population segment that originates from Asia, the characteristics of the ethnic Asian-origin market in the northern part of that State are also of interest since this may also be a potential niche market for Canadian pork. The objectives of the first part of this study are to evaluate the Asian ethnic markets for fresh pork in the United States Pacific Northwest and Vancouver. In the second part of the project the assessment of the market for fresh pork by Asian-origin consumers was extended to San Francisco. In this extension, a detailed assessment was also made of the product preferences for fresh pork by Asian-origin consumers in San Francisco and the behaviour patterns associated with store choices of these fresh pork consumers. Asian retailers and distributors in Vancouver, Seattle and Portland were surveyed by direct interview during November and December 1996. The survey applied semantic differential scaling questions, open-ended questions and a stated preference task, a conjoint methodology, to examine pork retailer's and distributor's perceptions of fresh pork produced in Western Canada and in the Midwest United States. Personal interviews with wholesalers and retailers were also applied in the San Francisco market survey which was conducted in 1998. Two consumer surveys were also conducted in San Francisco in 1998, directed at Asian-origin consumers of fresh pork. The structure of the market for fresh pork represented by retailers catering to Asian consumers in Vancouver differs from that in Seattle and Portland. The "Asian market" in Vancouver is dominated by many small shops that deal directly with packers. The small shops in Seattle and Portland deal with distributors and wholesalers. Distributors play a small role in Vancouver's retail market. Asian retailers in Seattle deal with a variety of suppliers, including both packers and distributors. In Portland, retailers catering to Asian consumers trade mainly with distributors and a local packer-wholesaler. In San Francisco, Asian stores and butcher shops prefer to obtain pork through smaller joggers, while American style supermarket retailers catering to the Asian consumers purchase pork directly from meat packing companies; fresh pork is sold in different ways in the different types of stores catering to Asian consumers that are found in these markets. The first survey found that Western Canadian pork enjoys an image of superior quality amongst retailers and distributors in Seattle's ethnic Asian market. Asian retailers in Portland are less familiar with Western Canadian pork and did not regard it as highly as did retailers in Seattle. However, distributors in Portland are more familiar with Western Canadian pork and consider it to be superior to Midwest United States pork in terms of overall quality, meat colour and fat trim. In both these markets, Western Canadian pork is generally considered to be expensive. These results are not statistically significant, however they are of economic relevance since most of the major players in the segment were interviewed. Little knowledge of Western Canadian pork was evidenced by retailers or consumers in this market segment in San Francisco. Western Canadian pork presently enjoys a reputation for superior quality amongst the retailers that specialize in sales to Asian consumers in Seattle and Portland. However it is also clear that many members of the trade lack information or experience with Canadian pork. Consequently, there is an opportunity for Canadian processors to maintain or increase market share through more education and promotion to this market segment. The 1998 survey of Asian-origin consumers of fresh pork in San Francisco focused on two aspects: preferences for fresh pork attributes and choice of store for fresh pork purchases. An intercept survey method was chosen to select and interview consumer respondents. Some 40% of the 196 respondents to the store choice survey purchase most of their fresh pork from American style supermarkets, 33% purchase mostly from small Asian stores, 24% from large Asian stores, and the rest from butcher shops. The most popular cut of pork purchased by Asian consumers is loins, followed by pork shoulders and butts, then pork leg, bellies, hock, and offal. The analysis indicated that socio-economic and demographic factors, as well as store attributes, significantly affect Asian consumers' store and product choices. The analysis of the ranking of selected attributes of fresh pork by Asian-origin consumers in San Francisco, California showed that freshness is ranked as the most important attribute, followed by the attributes of the color of meat, lowness in fat, and the whiteness of fat. The attributes of price, freedom from chemicals, and being USDA labelled were also ranked to be of importance. The attributes of little or least importance were knowing that pork came from the US, customized pork cuts, the variety of pork cuts, packaged pork, vacuum packed pork and seasoned and prepared pork. Empirical results from an ordered probit model postulated to explain respondents' rankings of attributes indicate that particular demographic and socio-economic characteristics of Asian-origin consumers influenced the importance rankings for the pork attributes that were identified to be important. For example, Chinese origin consumers were appreciably more sensitive to pork price than were other Asian-origin groups. One facet of the findings is that marketing strategies should not treat Asian-origin consumers as a single homogenous niche group in marketing since there are identifiable sub-groups of these consumers with specific attitudes and preferences. The importance placed on different attributes by particular ethnic subgroups, and their different preferences for stores at which fresh pork is purchased, provides useful information on which to develop strategies to target market development activities at the Asian-origin ethnic subgroups.Marketing, International Relations/Trade,

CONSUMER'S PERCEPTIONS OF ENVIRONMENTAL RISKS AND THE DEMAND FOR FOOD SAFETY

Public concern regarding food safety has emerged as a major policy issue. Chemicals and biotechnological processes are perceived as risks of food safety despite their contribution to an efficient, low cost agriculture and food industry. Increases in uses of biotechnological processes for foods are expected to be a major potential source of productivity improvements for Alberta and Canadian agriculture in future years. However, the demand for food safety involves increasing awareness and concern by consumers of chemical inputs and biotechnological processes in the agriculture and food industries. Nonetheless, there is a lack of basic economic and agricultural economic theory and methodology to analyze these issues and a need for policy, socioeconomics and marketing research on biotechnology and other environmental risk situations in the agricultural and food industry. This project was directed at developing and applying economic theory and methodology to help fill this gap. A major contribution of the project is the identification and verification of methodologies of stated choice to analyse tradeoffs arising from food safety perceptions of concerns by consumers. One component of the research project involved assessment of Alberta consumers' stated preferences and purchase behaviour for foods exhibiting a range of environmental risks, including perceptions of pesticide residues and hormonal treatments derived from biotechnological processes. The results of this survey indicated that Albertans were more concerned about pesticide use in food production than about the use of hormones. In contingent valuation questions developed for the study, more Albertans wish to restrict pesticide use (relative to a base case of not restricting either hormones or pesticides). They tended to persist in these choices in the face of potential increases in food costs, reflecting a higher level of concern with pesticides than hormones. Increasing education increased this concern. Increasing food cost decreased the probability of choosing to restrict pesticide or hormone use. Women appeared to perceive pesticide use in food production as a greater food safety risk than was perceived by men. The inferred average willingness to pay to restrict pesticide and growth hormone use in food production amounted to about 25% and 13% respectively of the average Albertan's food expenditures respectively. In the second survey of consumers' food/environmental risk perceptions undertaken relative to this project, the responses of a random sample of consumers to the use of recombinant bovine somatotrophin (rBST) in milk production were elicited using a stated preference methodology. A conditional logit model of consumer choice was developed and tested to analyse consumers' choices of milk with varying characteristics of fat content, price, freshness and rBST treatment. Awareness of rBST presence or otherwise is implied by labelling. The approach attempts to simulate market conditions with and without rBST labelled milk and to predict consumers' responses to variations in these conditions. Welfare calculations for a representative consumer indicate welfare losses with the introduction of rBST. These were slightly less for a male than a female household food purchaser and were less for food purchasers with higher levels of income and education. There was a small welfare gain when the representative food purchaser was offered a full range of "rBST" and "non-rBST" milks. The results suggest that making appropriately labelled "rBST-free" milk available to consumers could decrease consumer welfare losses associated with any introduction of rBST. The outcomes from application of these methodologies were related to the evidence of consumers' purchasing behaviour after licensing of the technology of rBST for use in the United States; this introduction did not require labelling. The assessment suggests a critical impact of product labelling policies and strategies on potential market impacts. An assessment is also made of Canada's food safety regulatory framework. The need for increased transparency and greater public participation in regulatory processes as means to increase public confidence in such food safety regulatory processes, specifically relating to biotechnology, is also identified.Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety,

Agricultural Production and Productivity in Canada

Productivity Analysis,

GATT Liberalization and World Grain Markets: Potential and Constraints for Western Canada

International Relations/Trade,

Conserving Water in Irrigated Agriculture: The Economics and Valuation of Water Rights

The effective management of water resources in Alberta is crucial to sustainable agriculture, industrial development, and environmental management. The historical water allocation mechanism, administrative apportionment, has been viewed in recent years as ineffective and cumbersome. Accordingly, the revision of the Water Act in 1996, included an attempt to improve the efficiency of water allocation. By making the transfer of water rights possible, the revised Act provides many new options for water use and flexibility. The implications of transferable water rights in Alberta water policy must be carefully considered in order to determine the viability and suitability of such a system in the provincial context. This project examines some of the economic aspects of transferable water rights and the potential for effective water allocation by way of transfers in an Alberta setting. As a major part of this project, a hedonic price model, focusing on land values in southern Alberta, was constructed based on similar models, which have been used elsewhere to value water rights or agricultural products. The hedonic approach to market analysis uses the relationship between the price of land and the attributes of the land, such as water availability, soil quality and location, to explain differences in land prices. In this process, the hedonic model is used to estimate the implicit marginal price or value of each land attribute -- in our case, the marginal value of irrigation water. This value will provide us with an indirect estimate of the value of water rights in the region studied. An advantage of the technique is that it estimates the value that farmers express for irrigation water in the market place for land. Such values, then, give us an indication of the anticipated prices, which might prevail for water rights in southern Alberta. The focus of the study was an area of southern Alberta encompassing the counties of Wheatland, Newell, Cypress, Forty Mile, Taber, Warner, Lethbridge and Vulcan and the irrigation districts of Western, Eastern, St.Mary's, Taber, Lethbridge Northern, and portions of Raymond. Information was collected on the physical and economic characteristics of 230 land parcels, which were sold in this region in 1993 and early 1994. A crude comparison of the value of irrigated agricultural land and non-irrigated agricultural land in the sample reveals that irrigated land was worth, on average, $325 more per acre than non-irrigated land. In the ensuing analysis, it was estimated that the value of a parcel of land was determined largely by the buildings on it, the number of acres in the parcel, the proximity of the parcel to a major city (in this case Calgary or Lethbridge), and by the availability of irrigation water. In the hedonic model, the coefficient values of the variables included represent the marginal impact of each of these characteristics on land prices holding all other things constant. For example, the value of water rights represents the average difference between land values of farms that have access to irrigation and farms that do not. This study estimated that every dollar of improvements to farm buildings translates to a one cent increase in the per acre price of the land parcel, where the addition of one extra acre of land to a land parcel lowers the price per acre by$5.17 per acre. Land prices were seen to increase with the proximity of the parcel to large cities. Similarly, the results of the preferred model indicate that the implicit value of having access to irrigation water in southern Alberta is approximately $190 per acre, or, using the conventional estimate that irrigating one acre of land requires 1.5 acre feet of water, this translates to$126 per acre foot of irrigation water. Accordingly, it is revealed that the existence of water rights adds approximately 35% to the value of non-irrigated land. Since this value represents the implicit amount farmers are willing to pay for access to water, it could also be construed as an indirect measure of the value of water rights. From these results, it is reasonable to conclude that water rights do have a measurable impact on land values. Accordingly, proper incentives may be needed to ensure that water is used efficiently and not incorrectly treated as a relatively free or cheap good. One possible method of policy reform to achieve such a system would be the institution of a system of transferable water rights, permitting water to be traded, or effectively sold, at its market price or scarcity value. Further work was done to determine the potential effects of transferable water rights on the Eastern Irrigation District in southern Alberta. Farm budget information was used to gather information and create twelve representative farm types whose financial performance was analysed using linear programming with increasing water quantity constraints. The resulting productive water values were then used to imply potential reallocations of water among farm types and cropping systems. Analysis of the data gathered revealed that all representative farms faced downward sloping demand functions for water. The overall value of water for a 1% reduction ranged from $8 to$250 per acre foot, with the lowest value belonging to largely pasture operations and the highest value attributed to specialty crop producers. This large range in water values for the region indicates that there is sufficient heterogeneity within the EID to accommodate a transferable rights system. Further analysis of the data reveals that the implementation of a transfer system would result in water being transferred to specialty crop producers and the acreage devoted to specialty crops would increase. Small irrigated pasture operations and cereal crop producers would be the first to give up their water allocations under a transfer system. The analysis indicates that there is considerable potential for economic gains from water trade within this district, the main constraint being the market limitations to expanded specialty crop production. Using these two major studies and other sources, this report concludes with a brief evaluation of the economic advantages, disadvantages and other issues involved in instituting a system of transferable water rights in Alberta. Experience elsewhere, primarily in Australia and the western United States, strongly suggests that transferable water rights, despite some drawbacks and problems of implementation, can be a very worthwhile water policy tool. Now that such tradable water rights are permissible under the revised Water Resources Act of 1996, it is recommended that a pilot project involving transferable water rights be instituted in a water short basin or sub-basin in southern Alberta once a water management plan for that basin is completed.Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

Canadian Consumers' Preferences for Food Safety and Agricultural Environment Safety

This project applies statistical models to analyse the relative importance ratings for selected food risk issues given in January 2003 by a representative cross-Canada sample of consumers. Ratings for environmental risks that may be associated with agriculture are also assessed. Results of ordered probit econometric models that analyze the influence of respondent's socio-economic and demographic characteristics on food and environmental risk ratings indicate that these are influenced by gender, age, income, employment and location of residence. Males tended to choose lower risk ratings; residents of Quebec tended to give higher risk ratings to most of the queried food and environmental safety issues. The results suggest that measures of trust in institutions associated with the regulation and marketing of food also influence individuals' risk assessments associated with food and agriculture.food safety, environmental risks, risk perceptions, quantitative assessment, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, C12, D12, I19, Q18,

Risk Perceptions, Social Interactions and the Influence of Information on Social Attitudes to Agricultural Biotechnology

We assess Canadian’s risk perceptions for genetically modified (GM) food and probe influences of socio-economic, demographic and other factors impinging on these perceptions. An internet-administered questionnaire with two stated choice split-sample experiments that approximate market choices of individual grocery shoppers is applied to elicit purchase behavior from 882 respondents across Canada. Data are collected to assess the influence on respondents’ choices for a specific food product (bread) of 1) product information which varies in content and by source and 2) information provided through labeling. These data also enable: a) analysis of trade-offs made by consumers between possible risks associated with GM ingredients and potential health or environment benefits in food and b) assessment of influences on respondents’ search for/access of product information. We rigorously document the extent and type of variation in Canadian consumers’ attitudes and risk perceptions for a selected GM food. This is pursued in analysis of experiment 1) data using a latent class model to analyze 445 consumers’ choices for bread products. We identify four distinct groups of Canadian consumers: 51% (value seekers) valued additional health or environmental benefits and were indifferent to GM content; traditional consumers (14 %) preferred their normally-purchased food; fringe consumers (4%) valued the health attribute and could defer consumption. Another 32 % (anti-GM) strongly opposed GM ingredients in food irrespective of introduced attributes. Thus there is a dichotomy in Canadian attitudes to GM content in food: a small majority of the sample (55 per cent) perceive little or no risk from GM food, but this is strongly opposed by 46% of respondents. Differences in gender, number of children in the household, education, and age are associated with the likelihood of segment membership. We also report on the search for information on characteristics of the GM food by a sample of 445 respondents with opportunity for voluntary access to related information through hyperlinks in the survey. Slightly less than half actually sought such information. Gender, employment status, rural or urban residency and the number of children in the household all affected the probability that respondents would access information. A further research component examines product choices made in the context of two common GM labeling policies: mandatory and voluntary labeling. We find these two types of strategies to have distinctive impacts on consumers and on measures of social welfare. Knowledge of these may help policy makers to make more informed analyses of the alternative labeling policies. Specific findings also provide base-line measures of Canadians’ attitudes to risks of GM technology in the context of food and environmental risks, as well as documenting the importance of context influences and reference points on consumers’ preferences for GM food. We also develop methodological improvements for accurately estimating the value of information on a negative attribute. The project built upon initial findings from a previous AARI project (#AARI Project #2000D037) and is complemented by research supported through a Genome Prairie GE3LS (Genetics, Ethics, Environment, Economics, Law and Society) project: “Commercialization and society: its policy and strategic implications.”Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies,

THE INFLUENCE OF ATTRIBUTE CUTOFFS ON CONSUMERS’ CHOICES OF A FUNCTIONAL FOOD

This study investigates evidence of non-compensatory preferences by incorporating attribute cutoffs into the modeling of consumer choices in the context of food with health-related attributes (omega-3 content) that may be associated with fortification or may result from genetic modification (GM). Data for this study were collected through a nation-wide internet-based survey drawn from a representative panel of Canadian households maintained by a major North American marketing firm. In addition to querying respondents on their perceptions and attitudes regarding food and health, choices of canola oils are elicited using a stated choice experiment in which product alternatives are identified based on attributes of price, country of origin, omega-3 content and GM/non-GM derivation. Consumers’ choices for functional canola oil products are examined in three steps. Initially, a conditional logit (CL) model is estimated assuming that no cutoffs apply in decisions on canola oil choices. Respondent’s self-reported cutoffs are then incorporated into the CL model and a random parameters logit (RPL) model, applying a utility model which penalizes rather than eliminates a desired alternative when a cutoff violation occurs. In the third step, the problem of endogeneity associated with attribute cutoffs is examined by linking respondents’ self-reported cutoffs to their demographic characteristics. Results from estimations of models with/without cutoffs show that consumers value omega-3 content in canola oils but dislike GM-derived ingredients in canola oil products. These Canadian respondents prefer canola oils produced in Canada to those produced in the United States. Regarding attribute cutoffs, it is found that consumers suffer a utility loss when violating their self-reported attribute cutoffs. Comparisons between models with/without attribute cutoffs suggest that incorporating cutoffs into the compensatory utility model significantly improves the model fit. Cutoff endogeneity is examined by predicting cutoffs based on respondents’ demographic characteristics. Using predicted cutoffs as instruments for self-reported cutoffs, this study provides some evidence that self-reported cutoffs may be endogenous and that researchers should consider using approaches that account for the potential endogeneity.decision strategy, attribute cutoff, functional food, Agricultural and Food Policy, Consumer/Household Economics, Demand and Price Analysis, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Food Security and Poverty, Health Economics and Policy, C25, C93, D1,