Strengthening Biblical Historicity vis-a`-vis Minimalism, 1992–2008 and Beyond. Part 2.3: Some Commonalities in Approaches to Writing Ancient Israel’s History

This series of articles covers scholarly works in English which can, at least potentially, be associated with a generally positive view of biblical historicity regarding periods preceding the Israelites’ return from exile. Part 2 covers works that treat the methodological issues at the center of the maximalist–minimalist debate. Parts 2.1 and 2.2 selectively survey the works of 24 non-minimalist scholars during two decades. In the absence of consensus, this article analyzes the works in Parts 2.1 and 2.2, tracing elements of approach that are held in common, at least among pluralities of non-minimalists (possible majorities are not noted). The first commonality of approach is that history is provisional, not final. The second is that history should become fully multidisciplinary. The third commonality is that historians should receive all historical evidence on an equal footing before examination and cross-examination. The fourth and last is that historians should become increasingly sensitive to cultural aspects and coding in ancient Near Eastern materials

Comparative estimation of the reproduction number for pandemic influenza from daily case notification data

The reproduction number, R, defined as the average number of secondary cases generated by a primary case, is a crucial quantity for identifying the intensity of interventions required to control an epidemic. Current estimates of the reproduction number for seasonal influenza show wide variation and, in particular, uncertainty bounds for R for the pandemic strain from 1918 to 1919 have been obtained only in a few recent studies and are yet to be fully clarified. Here, we estimate R using daily case notifications during the autumn wave of the influenza pandemic (Spanish flu) in the city of San Francisco, California, from 1918 to 1919. In order to elucidate the effects from adopting different estimation approaches, four different methods are used: estimation of R using the early exponential-growth rate (Method 1), a simple susceptible–exposed–infectious–recovered (SEIR) model (Method 2), a more complex SEIR-type model that accounts for asymptomatic and hospitalized cases (Method 3), and a stochastic susceptible–infectious–removed (SIR) with Bayesian estimation (Method 4) that determines the effective reproduction number Rt at a given time t. The first three methods fit the initial exponential-growth phase of the epidemic, which was explicitly determined by the goodness-of-fit test. Moreover, Method 3 was also fitted to the whole epidemic curve. Whereas the values of R obtained using the first three methods based on the initial growth phase were estimated to be 2.98 (95% confidence interval (CI): 2.73, 3.25), 2.38 (2.16, 2.60) and 2.20 (1.55, 2.84), the third method with the entire epidemic curve yielded a value of 3.53 (3.45, 3.62). This larger value could be an overestimate since the goodness-of-fit to the initial exponential phase worsened when we fitted the model to the entire epidemic curve, and because the model is established as an autonomous system without time-varying assumptions. These estimates were shown to be robust to parameter uncertainties, but the theoretical exponential-growth approximation (Method 1) shows wide uncertainty. Method 4 provided a maximum-likelihood effective reproduction number 2.10 (1.21, 2.95) using the first 17 epidemic days, which is consistent with estimates obtained from the other methods and an estimate of 2.36 (2.07, 2.65) for the entire autumn wave. We conclude that the reproduction number for pandemic influenza (Spanish flu) at the city level can be robustly assessed to lie in the range of 2.0–3.0, in broad agreement with previous estimates using distinct data

An experimental study of the influence of periphytic algae on invertebrate abundance in a Hong Kong stream

Algal biomass, invertebrate morphospecies richness and total abundance decline with greater shading intensity. The responses of individual invertebrate taxa varied: some (especially Trichoptera) were unaffected by shading, whereas grazers (Baetidae, Psephenidae and Elmidae) declined as shading increased. Significant regressions of the densities of individual taxa upon algal and detrital standing stocks in cages had positive slopes, but algal biomass increased during the study while detrital standing stocks declined. Abundance of invertebrates declined or remained rather stable over time. Density increases resulting from a positive association with algae were apparently offset by declines in abundance correlated with reductions in detritus. Declines in algal biomass were associated with greater shading to which animals may respond directly. The plastic covers on two groups of cages (deeply shaded and unshaded) which had been placed in the stream for 28 days were reversed so that cages which had been shaded became unshaded and vice versa. The cages were recovered on day 33. Only Coleoptera demonstrated a positive association with algae inside cages. -from Authorslink_to_subscribed_fulltex