Financing constraints and a firm's decision and ability to innovate: establishing direct and reverse effects

The paper analyzes the existence and impact of …nancing constraints as a possibly serious obstacle to innovation by …rms. Direct measures of …nancing constraints are employed using survey data collected by the Banque de France and Eurostat, which overcomes the problems with the traditional approach of trying to deduce indirectly the existence and impact of …nancing constraints through the signi…cance of …rm wealth variables. The importance of using direct as opposed to indirect measures of …nancing constraints has been illustrated recently by two articles in this Journal (Moyen (2004) using a synthetic sample methodology, and Hennessy and Whited (2007) through the method of simulated moments). The econometric framework we employ in our study is the simultaneous bivariate probit with mutual endogeneity of direct indicators of …nancial constraints and innovation decisions by …rms. The pa- per discusses the important identi…cation issue of coherency conditions in such LDV models with endogeneity and ‡exible temporal and contemporaneous correlations in the unobservable error terms. Our novel methods for establishing coherency condi- tions allow us for the …rst time to estimate models hitherto classi…ed as incoherent through the use of prior sign restrictions on model parameters. We are thus able to quantify the interaction between …nancing constraints and a …rm’s decision and ability to innovate without forcing the econometric models to be recursive. Hence, we obtain direct as well as reverse interaction e¤ects, leading us to conclude that binding …nancing constraints discourage innovation and at the same time innovative …rms are more likely to face binding …nancing constraints

Switching regressions with imperfect regime classification information: theory and applications

This paper discusses switching regressions econometric modelling with imperfect regime classification information. The econometric novelty is that misclassification probabilities are allowed to vary endogenously over time. Standard maximum likelihood estimation is infeasible in this case because each likelihood contribution requires the evaluation of 2 T terms (where T is the number of observations available). We develop an algorithm that allows efficient estimation when such imperfect information is available, by evaluating the exact likelihood through simply T matrix multiplications (each of a 2 2 matrix times a 2 1 vector.) Our methods are shown to be widely applicable to various areas of economic analysis such as to Hamilton's work on Markov-Switching models in Macroeconomics; to external financing problems faced by firms in Corporate Finance; and to game-theoretic models of price collusion in Industrial Organization. We proceed to apply our methods to analyze price fixing by the Joint Executive Committee railroad cartel from 1880 to 1886 and develop tests of two prototypical game-theoretic models of tacit collusion. The first model, due to Abreu, Pearce and Stacchetti (1986), predicts that price will switch across regimes according to a Markov process. The second model, by Rotemberg and Saloner (1986), concludes that price wars are more likely in periods of high industry demand. Switching regressions are used to model the firm's shifting between collusive and punishment behaviour. The JEC data set is expanded to include measures of grain production to be shipped and availability of substitute transportation services. Our findings cast doubt on the applicability of the Rotemberg and Saloner model to the JEC railroad cartel, while they conÖrm the Markovian prediction of the Abreu et al. model

An Aggregative Disequilibrium Model of the U.S. Labour Market

A model is presented in which aggregation over microsectors, each in different extent of disequilibrium, has implications analogous to the standard single aggregate sector switching disequilibrium model. Empirical implementation of the model of this paper is less involved than estimation of the standard model. Hence the approach here may be seen both as providing an underlying micro justification for the switching disequilibrium model, and as a computationally simpler (though statistically less efficient) technique. The model is estimated from post-war labour market quarterly data for the U.S. Manufacturing sector. We find the supply side more satisfactorily determined than in past disequilibrium studies

Do the Secondary Markets Believe in Life After Debt?

This paper employs panel-data econometric techniques to explore the relations between measures of credit worthiness and the debt discounts on the secondary markets. It investigates empirically whether the secondary market discounts reflect a history of past repayments problems or whether they anticipate future debt crises. The answer to this question has implications about the desirability of debt relief. The main finding is that the secondary markets do not seem rapidly to absorb economic information, which suggests that they are still in their evolutionary stage and are not very efficient. The estimated models are also used to analyze issues in the international finance literature

Simulation Estimation Methods for Limited Dependent Variable Models

This chapter discusses simulation estimation methods that overcome the computational intractability of classical estimation of limited dependent variable models with flexible correlation structures in the unobservable stochastic terms. These difficulties arise because of the need to evaluate accurately very high dimensional integrals. The methods based on simulation do not require the exact evaluation of these integrals and hence are feasible using computers of even moderate power. I first discuss a series of ideas that had been used in efforts to circumvent these computational problems by employing standard numerical analysis approximation methods. I then show how simulation techniques solve the computational problems without the need to resort to either generally unsatisfactory numerical approximations. All currently know simulation algorithms are then compared in terms of theoretical properties and practical performance

Two Misspecification Tests for the Simple Switching Regressions Disequilibrium Model

Two specification tests for switching regimes disequilibrium models are developed. The first is an asymptotically locally optimal Lagrange multiplier test of endogeneity of a set of regressors, which takes the convenient form of a LM significance-test of certain regression residuals. The second is a Hausman specification test of the accuracy of regime classification information

Testing Game Theoretic Models of Price-Fixing Behaviour

This paper analyzes price fixing by the Joint Executive Committee railroad cartel from 1880 to 1886 and develops tests of two game-theoretic models of tacit collusion. The first model, due to Abreu, Pearce and Stacchetti (1986), predicts that price will switch across regimes according to a Markov process. The second, by Rotemberg and Saloner (1986), postulates that price wars are more likely in periods of high industry demand. Switching regressions are used to model the firms' shifting between collusive and punishment behavior. The main econometric novelty in the estimation procedures introduced in this paper is that misclassification probabilities are allowed to vary endogenously over time. The JEC data set is expanded to include measures of grain production to be shipped and availability of substitute transportation services. Our findings cast doubt on the applicability of the Rotemberg and Saloner model to the JEC railroad cartel, while they confirm the Markovian prediction of the Abreu, et al. Model.Tact collusion, cartels, price competition, railroads, transportation