Russia’s Birth Rate Dynamics Forecasting

This article covers contemporary issues of Russia’s population reproduction, their causes and the state policy aimed to overcome the same. The urgency to fulfill the task related to assessment of the most probable future dynamics of Russia’s population birth rate in the context of a low child-woman ratio, and subject to an impact of pronatalist policies implemented by the state, is justified. In order to fulfill the task based on the crude birth rate behavior probability distribution function, a probabilistic assessment of future dynamics of Russia’s population reproduction has been carried out. Based on a modernized method suggested by Hurst, the following two forecasting paths of the crude birth rate dynamics have been built: the first path conforms to the scenario where a value of the crude birth rate is to tend to values between 8–10.5 births/1,000 people (probability is 0.182), in particular, through a negative external impact, the second path is to tend to values between 13–16.5 births/1,000 people (probability — 0.618), in particular, through a positive external impact. Notwithstanding that these scenarios significantly differ from each other, the paths of the crude birth rate dynamics for 2015–2041, corresponding to the reliable prediction time, forecasted according to the abovementioned scenarios, are virtually identical. The analysis of the findings allowed for the conclusion that the state demographic policy is not capable of having a significant impact on the future dynamics of the birth rate, substantially determined by the current situation and conjuncture shifts. These conclusions confirm the view prevailing in academic circles and suggesting that the state regulation of Russia’s demographic situation should be primarily focused on the improvement in health and a rise in the life expectancy of the population.The research has been prepared with the support of the Russian Science Foundation grant (Project No. 14-18-00574 “Information and analytic systems “Anticrisis”: diagnostics of the regions, threat evaluation and scenario forecasting to preserve and reinforce the welfare of Russia”)

Economic tomography: the possibility to anticipate and respond to socio-economic crises

The article discusses an approach based on an original hypothesis related to the peculiarities of Russia’s development (on the one hand, its scale, the Russian mentality and a certain closeness of the economy; on the other hand, a significant dominant resource and human potential, and, as a consequence, a genuine role in the global economic community), the diagnosis of which (at the level of the well-being of individuals and inhabited areas) can be used to identify crises, provide an early assessment of threats to socio-economic development of regions as well as help to evaluate the state of the region over a 3 to 5 year period. In other words, in order to ensure that executives have enough time to mount a sufficiently rapid response to the crises and administrative errors and to reduce the impact of emerging threats. The aim of this paper is to present theoretical and methodological tools for the recognition of the early stages of emerging threats, allowing fewer losses to be experienced during the crisis period. Simulation experiments were carried out for the purpose of classifying previously occurring social and economic crises (9 possible variants were reviewed) and mathematically processed trajectories of change in the main indicators for the well-being of individuals and inhabited areas, taking the influence of various factors into account. On the basis of the authors’ proposed approach (referred to as economic tomography) an attempt is made to comprehensively assess the state of sample representative regions of Russia.The research has been supported by the Russian Science Foundation (project № 14–18–00574 'Information-analytical system "Anticrisis:" diagnostics of the regions, threat assessment and scenario forecasting for the preservation and strengthening of economic security and well-being of Russia')

Urban topos: to the question of identity engineering

В статье рассматривается возможность конструирования городской идентичности с помощью различного восприятия города как определенного места.The possibility of construction of urban identity using different perceptions of the city as a particular place is described in the article

Профілактика адміністративних правопорушень у сільському господарстві: поняття, особливості та види

Васильєва, Н. С. Профілактика адміністративних правопорушень у сільському госпо- дарстві: поняття, особливості та види [Електронний ресурс] / Н. С. Васильєва // Форум права. – 2014. – № 2. – С. 63–68. – Режим доступу: http://nbuv.gov.ua/jpdf/ FP_index.htm_2014_2_12.pdf.Васильєва Н. С. "Профілактика адміністративних правопорушень у сільському господарстві: поняття, особливості та види." Форум права 2 (2014): 63–68.Проаналізовано погляди науковців на поняття профілактики правопорушень. Визначено поняття та ознаки профілактики адміністративних правопорушень у сільському господарстві. Досліджено особливості вказаної профілактики. З’ясовано види профілактичних заходів у сфері сільськогосподарської діяльності. Проаналізовано повноваження суб’єктів адміністративно-правової протидії правопорушенням у сільському господарстві щодо здійснення профілактичної роботи. Визначено недоліки правового регулювання профілактики адміністративних правопорушень у сільському господарстві та запропоновано шляхи їх подолання.The views of scholars on the concept of offenses prevention are analyzed. The concept and features of administrative offenses prevention in agriculture are defined. The features of indicated prevention are characterized. The types of prevention activities in the field of agriculture are determined. We analyzed the subjects’ powers of administrative and legal counteraction to offense in agriculture to implement prevention activities. We determined deficiencies of legal regulation of administrative offenses prevention in agriculture and proposed ways to overcome them.Проанализированы взгляды ученых на понятие профилактики правонарушений. Определено понятие и признаки профилактики административных правонарушений в сельском хозяйстве. Исследованы особенности указанной профилактики. Выяснены виды профилактических мер в сфере сельскохозяйственной деятельности. Проанализированы полномочия субъектов административно-правового противодействия правонарушениям в сельском хозяйстве по осуществлению профилактической работы. Определены недостатки правового регулирования профилактики административных правонарушений в сельском хозяйстве и предложены пути их преодоления

DYNAMICS OF THE ANXIETY DISORDERS IN THE COURSE OF SHORT-TERM PSYCHOTHERAPY

The tendency of psychotherapy modern concepts referring to the short-term forms having been taken into account, we carried out the research aimed at the study of short-term form personality-oriented psychotherapy effect on the anxiety disorder dynamics. 103 patients with neurotic disorders were examined in the neurosis and psychotherapy department of the Bekhterev Psychoneurological Research Institute. The findings revealed the situational and personal anxiety level to be objectively decreased in the short-term group psychotherapy course. The short-term group psychotherapy was proved to bean effective method in anxiety disorders treatment considering indications and limitations

Experience of Identifying the Specifics of Everyday Linguistic Consciousness of Russians according to Associative Dictionaries of the XX-XXI Centuries

The article is devoted to comparing data on the results of associative experiments of different years. The main focus is on the conceptual core - the first ten words with the most associative links. It is reported that in 2013-2017, researchers of the Krasnoyarsk State Pedagogical University named after V. P. Astafiev, with the support of scientific foundations, prepared the “Electronic associative dictionary of Yenisei Siberia”, which includes 29,550 associative fields based on the results obtained when 1000 respondents were presented (incentives were proposed by the team of the ethnopsycholinguistics sector of the Institute of Atomic Energy RAS under the direction of N. V. Ufimtseva). The article compares the obtained data with the materials of the conceptual core of other associative dictionaries of the Russian language of the XX-XXI centuries, such as the “Dictionary of associative norms of the Russian language” by A. A. Leontyev, “Russian Associative Dictionary” edited by Yu. N. Karaulov, “Russian regional associative dictionary-thesaurus” by G. A. Cherkasova, N. V. Ufimtseva. It is proved that the data of associative dictionaries indicate a change in indicators on the scale of values of linguistic consciousness of the Russian language native speakers. An attempt was made to identify the specifics of the everyday linguistic consciousness of Russians in a geographically limited community. The conclusion is made that the changes in the linguistic consciousness of Russians are caused to a greater extent by temporary rather than regional conditions