Penerapan Triple Exponential Smoothing dan Arima dalam Memprediksi Produksi Crude Palm Oil

Abstract In the field of oil palm plantations, PT.XYZ, located in Riau Province, is a company that produces one of them Crude Palm Oil (CPO). It is known that from the last 10 years of production, the selling price tends to be unstable resulting in stockpiling. Therefore, forecasting the right amount of production is carried out so that the problem of stockpiling can be overcome, so this study aims to forecast CPO production stock using a comparison of two algorithms, namely Triple Exponential Smoothing and ARIMA. Forecasting involves taking historical data and predicting it for the next period. After the forecasting process is carried out, the level of error in forecasting is tested using the Mean Absolute Percatage Error (MAPE) method to show the range of error values in forecasting calculations based on the smallest error. The output after testing with the TES method gets a benchmark αlpha = 0.5, βeta = 0.004, and gamma γ =1.0 the error rate is obtained using MAPE accuracy of 10.1% and 1.4% for the ARIMA model. The output of the TES method gets the MAPE category with good forecasting ability and while the output of the ARIMA method is included in the MAPE category with very good forecasting ability according to the MAPE range assessment. The role of this research is needed in order to provide information to related companies as an additional reference in forecasting CPO production. The results of the research conducted obtained the ARIMA method is the best method with the smallest error calculation of the MAPE value

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Antagonism of neuromuscular blockade but not muscle relaxation affects depth of anaesthesia

Background. Conflicting effects of neuromuscular blocking drugs and anticholinesterases on depth of anaesthesia have been reported. Therefore we evaluated the effect of atracurium and neostigmine on bispectral index (BIS) and middle-latency auditory evoked potentials (AAI). Methods. We studied 40 patients (ASA I-II) aged 18-69 yr. General anaesthesia consisted of propofol and remifentanil by target-controlled infusion and neuromuscular function was monitored by electromyography. When BIS reached stable values, patients were randomly assigned to one of two groups. Group 1 received atracurium 0.4 mg kg−1 and, 5 min later, the same volume of NaCl 0.9%; group 2 received saline first and then atracurium. When the first twitch of a train of four reached 10% of control intensity, patients were again randomized: one group (N) received neostigmine 0.04 mg kg−1 and glycopyrrolate 0.01 mg kg−1, and the control group (G) received only glycopyrrolate. Results. Injection of atracurium or NaCl 0.9% had no effect on BIS or AAI. After neostigmine-glycopyrrolate, BIS and AAI increased significantly (mean maximal change of BIS 7.1 [sd 7.5], P<0.001; mean maximal change of AAI 9.7 [10.5], P<0.001). When glycopyrrolate was injected alone BIS and AAI also increased (mean maximal change of BIS 2.2 [3.4], P=0.008; mean maximal change of AAI 3.5 [5.7], P=0.012), but this increase was significantly less than in group N (P=0.012 for BIS; P=0.027 for AAI). Conclusion. These data suggest that neostigmine alters the state of propofol-remifentanil anaesthesia and may enhance recover

Volatile Blood Pressure Due To Baroreflex and Autonomic Failure

An 85-year-old male was hospitalized because of deterioration of his general condition and infection of the tracheostoma. He had had laryngectomy, bilateral neck dissection and radiation therapy for a laryngeal carcinoma 5 years earlier. Despite a good recovery, he could not get up because of a new onset of postural symptoms (dizziness, lightheadedness, collapse). Late onset of baroreflex failure and autonomic nervous system failure were diagnosed. Volatility of blood pressure (supine hypertension, upright hypotension) was treated with NaCl supplement during the day and a short-acting antihypertensive (clonidine) at night. With this regimen, the patient could walk without support

Evaluation of the Effect of Botulinum Toxin A on the Lymphatic Endothelial Cells

INTRODUCTION: Botulinum toxin A (BoTA) is a neurotoxin formed by Clostridium botulinum, with a broad medical application spectrum. While the primary effect of BoTA is on the muscles, the effects of BoTA in other systems including the blood vasculature have already been examined, revealing unexpected actions. However, no studies exist to the best of our knowledge regarding the potential effects of BoTA on the lymphatic vascular system, possessing a critical role in health and disease. Isolated human lymphatic endothelial cells (LECs) were cultured in dedicated in vitro culture systems. The analysis including imaging and cell culture approaches as well as molecular biology techniques is performed to examine the LEC alterations occurring upon exposure to different concentrations of BoTA. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Human LECs were cultured and expanded on collagen-coated petri dishes using endothelial basal medium and the commercial product Botox from Allergan as used for all our experiments. Harvested cells were used in various in vitro functional tests to assess the morphologic and functional properties of the BoTA-treated LECs. Gene expression analysis was performed to assess the most important lymphatic system-related genes and pathways. RESULTS: Concentrations of 1, 5 or 10 U of BoTA did not demonstrate a significant effect regarding the proliferation and migration capacity of the LECs versus untreated controls. Interestingly, even the smallest BoTA dose was found to significantly decrease the cord-like-structure formation capacity of the seeded LECs. Gene expression analysis was used to underpin possible molecular alterations, suggesting no significant effect of BoTA in the modification of gene expression versus the starvation medium control. CONCLUSION: LECs appear largely unaffected to BoTA treatment, with an isolated effect on the cord-like-structure formation capacity. Further work needs to assess the effect of BoTA on the smooth-muscle-cell-covered collecting lymphatic vessels and the possible aesthetic implications of such an effect, due to edema formation

Importance of Co-operative Hydrogen Bonding in the Apramycin-Ribosomal Decoding A-Site Interaction

An intramolecular hydrogen bond between the protonated equatorial 7'-methylamino group of apramycin and the vicinal axial 6'-hydroxy group acidifies the 6'-hydroxy group leading to a strong hydrogen bond to A1408 in the ribosomal drug binding pocket in the decoding A site of the small ribosomal subunit. In 6'-epiapramycin, the trans-nature of the 6'-hydroxy group and the 7'-methylamino group results in a much weaker intramolecular hydrogen bond, and a consequently weaker cooperative hydrogen bonding network with A1408, resulting overall in reduced inhibition of protein synthesis and antibacterial activity

2,3,4-Triacet­oxy-1-[5-(1,2,3,4-tetra­acetoxy­butyl)pyrazin-2-yl]butyl acetate

The title compound, C28H36N2O16, was obtained unintentionally in an attempt to synthesize 1,3,4,6-tetra-O-acetyl-2-azido-2-de­oxy-d-mannopyran­ose. The crystal packing utilizes methyl–acet­oxy C—H⋯O and meth­yl–pyrazine C—H⋯N hydrogen bonding

Multimodal anatomy of the human forniceal commissure

Ambiguity surrounds the existence and morphology of the human forniceal commissure. We combine advanced in-vivo tractography, multidirectional ex-vivo fiber dissection, and multiplanar histological analysis to characterize this structure's anatomy. Across all 178 subjects, in-vivo fiber dissection based on the Human Connectome Project 7 T MRI data identifies no interhemispheric connections between the crura fornicis. Multidirectional ex-vivo fiber dissection under the operating microscope demonstrates the psalterium as a thin soft-tissue membrane spanning between the right and left crus fornicis, but exposes no commissural fibers. Multiplanar histological analysis with myelin and Bielchowsky silver staining, however, visualizes delicate cruciform fibers extending between the crura fornicis, enclosed by connective tissue, the psalterium. The human forniceal commissure is therefore much more delicate than previously described and presented in anatomical textbooks. This finding is consistent with the observed phylogenetic trend of a reduction of the forniceal commissure in non-human primates compared to non-primate eutherian mammals

In Vivo Evaluation of Mechanically Processed Stromal Vascular Fraction in a Chamber Vascularized by an Arteriovenous Shunt

Mechanically processed stromal vascular fraction (mSVF) is a promising source for regenerative purposes. To study the in vivo fate of the mSVF, we herein used a vascularized tissue engineering chamber that insulates the target mSVF from the surrounding environment. In contrast to previous models, we propose an arteriovenous (AV) shunt between saphenous vessels in rats without a venous graft. Mechanical SVF was processed from the fat pads of male Sprague Dawley rats, mixed with a fibrin hydrogel and implanted into an inguinal tissue engineering chamber. An arteriovenous shunt was established between saphenous artery and vein. On the contralateral side, an mSVF-fibrin hydrogel mix without vascular axis served as a non-vascularized control. After two and six weeks, rats were sacrificed for further analysis. Mechanical SVF showed significant numbers of mesenchymal stromal cells. Vascularized mSVF explants gained weight over time. Perilipin and CD31 expression were significantly higher in the mSVF explants after six weeks while no difference in DAPI positive cells, collagen deposition and FABP4 expression was observed. Morphologically, no differentiated adipocytes but a dense cell-rich tissue with perilipin-positive cells was found after six weeks. The phosphorylation of ERK1/2 was significantly enhanced after six weeks while Akt activation remained unaltered. Finally, mSVF explants stably expressed and released VEGF, bFGF and TGFb. Vascularized mSVF is able to proliferate and express adipocyte-specific markers. The AV shunt model is a valuable refinement of currently existing AV loop models in the rat which contributes to the fundamental 3R principles of animal research