Global, regional, and national burden of diseases and injuries for adults 70 years and older: systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease 2019 Study

Objectives To use data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 (GBD 2019) to estimate mortality and disability trends for the population aged ≥70 and evaluate patterns in causes of death, disability, and risk factors. Design Systematic analysis. Setting Participants were aged ≥70 from 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019. Main outcomes measures Years of life lost, years lived with disability, disability adjusted life years, life expectancy at age 70 (LE-70), healthy life expectancy at age 70 (HALE-70), proportion of years in ill health at age 70 (PYIH-70), risk factors, and data coverage index were estimated based on standardised GBD methods. Results Globally the population of older adults has increased since 1990 and all cause death rates have decreased for men and women. However, mortality rates due to falls increased between 1990 and 2019. The probability of death among people aged 70-90 decreased, mainly because of reductions in non-communicable diseases. Globally disability burden was largely driven by functional decline, vision and hearing loss, and symptoms of pain. LE-70 and HALE-70 showed continuous increases since 1990 globally, with certain regional disparities. Globally higher LE-70 resulted in higher HALE-70 and slightly increased PYIH-70. Sociodemographic and healthcare access and quality indices were positively correlated with HALE-70 and LE-70. For high exposure risk factors, data coverage was moderate, while limited data were available for various dietary, environmental or occupational, and metabolic risks. Conclusions Life expectancy at age 70 has continued to rise globally, mostly because of decreases in chronic diseases. Adults aged ≥70 living in high income countries and regions with better healthcare access and quality were found to experience the highest life expectancy and healthy life expectancy. Disability burden, however, remained constant, suggesting the need to enhance public health and intervention programmes to improve wellbeing among older adults.publishedVersio

Health disparities across the counties of Kenya and implications for policy makers, 1990-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016.

BACKGROUND:The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 provided comprehensive estimates of health loss globally. Decision makers in Kenya can use GBD subnational data to target health interventions and address county-level variation in the burden of disease. METHODS:We used GBD 2016 estimates of life expectancy at birth, healthy life expectancy, all-cause and cause-specific mortality, years of life lost, years lived with disability, disability-adjusted life-years, and risk factors to analyse health by age and sex at the national and county levels in Kenya from 1990 to 2016. FINDINGS:The national all-cause mortality rate decreased from 850·3 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 829·8-871·1) deaths per 100 000 in 1990 to 579·0 (562·1-596·0) deaths per 100 000 in 2016. Under-5 mortality declined from 95·4 (95% UI 90·1-101·3) deaths per 1000 livebirths in 1990 to 43·4 (36·9-51·2) deaths per 1000 livebirths in 2016, and maternal mortality fell from 315·7 (242·9-399·4) deaths per 100 000 in 1990 to 257·6 (195·1-335·3) deaths per 100 000 in 2016, with steeper declines after 2006 and heterogeneously across counties. Life expectancy at birth increased by 5·4 (95% UI 3·7-7·2) years, with higher gains in females than males in all but ten counties. Unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing, unsafe sex, and malnutrition were the leading national risk factors in 2016. INTERPRETATION:Health outcomes have improved in Kenya since 2006. The burden of communicable diseases decreased but continues to predominate the total disease burden in 2016, whereas the non-communicable disease burden increased. Health gains varied strikingly across counties, indicating targeted approaches for health policy are necessary. FUNDING:Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Ablation of proliferating neural stem cells during early life is sufficient to reduce adult hippocampal neurogenesis

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Global, regional, and national burden of diseases and injuries for adults 70 years and older: systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease 2019 Study

Objectives To use data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 (GBD 2019) to estimate mortality and disability trends for the population aged ≥70 and evaluate patterns in causes of death, disability, and risk factors. Design Systematic analysis. Setting Participants were aged ≥70 from 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019. Main outcomes measures Years of life lost, years lived with disability, disability adjusted life years, life expectancy at age 70 (LE-70), healthy life expectancy at age 70 (HALE-70), proportion of years in ill health at age 70 (PYIH-70), risk factors, and data coverage index were estimated based on standardised GBD methods. Results Globally the population of older adults has increased since 1990 and all cause death rates have decreased for men and women. However, mortality rates due to falls increased between 1990 and 2019. The probability of death among people aged 70-90 decreased, mainly because of reductions in non-communicable diseases. Globally disability burden was largely driven by functional decline, vision and hearing loss, and symptoms of pain. LE-70 and HALE-70 showed continuous increases since 1990 globally, with certain regional disparities. Globally higher LE-70 resulted in higher HALE-70 and slightly increased PYIH-70. Sociodemographic and healthcare access and quality indices were positively correlated with HALE-70 and LE-70. For high exposure risk factors, data coverage was moderate, while limited data were available for various dietary, environmental or occupational, and metabolic risks. Conclusions Life expectancy at age 70 has continued to rise globally, mostly because of decreases in chronic diseases. Adults aged ≥70 living in high income countries and regions with better healthcare access and quality were found to experience the highest life expectancy and healthy life expectancy. Disability burden, however, remained constant, suggesting the need to enhance public health and intervention programmes to improve wellbeing among older adults

Global, regional, and national burden of diseases and injuries for adults 70 years and older : systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease 2019 Study.

OBJECTIVES: To use data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 (GBD 2019) to estimate mortality and disability trends for the population aged ≥70 and evaluate patterns in causes of death, disability, and risk factors. DESIGN: Systematic analysis. SETTING: Participants were aged ≥70 from 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019. MAIN OUTCOMES MEASURES: Years of life lost, years lived with disability, disability adjusted life years, life expectancy at age 70 (LE-70), healthy life expectancy at age 70 (HALE-70), proportion of years in ill health at age 70 (PYIH-70), risk factors, and data coverage index were estimated based on standardised GBD methods. RESULTS: Globally the population of older adults has increased since 1990 and all cause death rates have decreased for men and women. However, mortality rates due to falls increased between 1990 and 2019. The probability of death among people aged 70-90 decreased, mainly because of reductions in non-communicable diseases. Globally disability burden was largely driven by functional decline, vision and hearing loss, and symptoms of pain. LE-70 and HALE-70 showed continuous increases since 1990 globally, with certain regional disparities. Globally higher LE-70 resulted in higher HALE-70 and slightly increased PYIH-70. Sociodemographic and healthcare access and quality indices were positively correlated with HALE-70 and LE-70. For high exposure risk factors, data coverage was moderate, while limited data were available for various dietary, environmental or occupational, and metabolic risks. CONCLUSIONS: Life expectancy at age 70 has continued to rise globally, mostly because of decreases in chronic diseases. Adults aged ≥70 living in high income countries and regions with better healthcare access and quality were found to experience the highest life expectancy and healthy life expectancy. Disability burden, however, remained constant, suggesting the need to enhance public health and intervention programmes to improve wellbeing among older adults

The burden of mental disorders across the states of India: the Global Burden of Disease Study 1990–2017

Background: Mental disorders are among the leading causes of non-fatal disease burden in India, but a systematic understanding of their prevalence, disease burden, and risk factors is not readily available for each state of India. In this report, we describe the prevalence and disease burden of each mental disorder for the states of India, from 1990 to 2017. Methods: We used all accessible data from multiple sources to estimate the prevalence of mental disorders, years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) caused by these disorders for all the states of India from 1990 to 2017, as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study. We assessed the heterogeneity and time trends of mental disorders across the states of India. We grouped states on the basis of their Socio-demographic Index (SDI), which is a composite measure of per-capita income, mean education, and fertility rate in women younger than 25 years. We also assessed the association of major mental disorders with suicide deaths. We calculated 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for the point estimates. Findings: In 2017, 197·3 million (95% UI 178·4–216·4) people had mental disorders in India, including 45·7 million (42·4–49·8) with depressive disorders and 44·9 million (41·2–48·9) with anxiety disorders. We found a significant, but modest, correlation between the prevalence of depressive disorders and suicide death rate at the state level for females (r=0·33, p=0·0009) and males (r=0·19, p=0·015). The contribution of mental disorders to the total DALYs in India increased from 2·5% (2·0–3·1) in 1990 to 4·7% (3·7–5·6) in 2017. In 2017, depressive disorders contributed the most to the total mental disorders DALYs (33·8%, 29·5–38·5), followed by anxiety disorders (19·0%, 15·9–22·4), idiopathic developmental intellectual disability (IDID; 10·8%, 6·3–15·9), schizophrenia (9·8%, 7·7–12·4), bipolar disorder (6·9%, 4·9–9·6), conduct disorder (5·9%, 4·0–8·1), autism spectrum disorders (3·2%, 2·7–3·8), eating disorders (2·2%, 1·7–2·8), and attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD; 0·3%, 0·2–0·5); other mental disorders comprised 8·0% (6·1–10·1) of DALYs. Almost all (>99·9%) of these DALYs were made up of YLDs. The DALY rate point estimates of mental disorders with onset predominantly in childhood and adolescence (IDID, conduct disorder, autism spectrum disorders, and ADHD) were higher in low SDI states than in middle SDI and high SDI states in 2017, whereas the trend was reversed for mental disorders that manifest predominantly during adulthood. Although the prevalence of mental disorders with onset in childhood and adolescence decreased in India from 1990 to 2017, with a stronger decrease in high SDI and middle SDI states than in low SDI states, the prevalence of mental disorders that manifest predominantly during adulthood increased during this period. Interpretation: One in seven Indians were affected by mental disorders of varying severity in 2017. The proportional contribution of mental disorders to the total disease burden in India has almost doubled since 1990. Substantial variations exist between states in the burden from different mental disorders and in their trends over time. These state-specific trends of each mental disorder reported here could guide appropriate policies and health system response to more effectively address the burden of mental disorders in India. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation; and Indian Council of Medical Research, Department of Health Research, Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Government of India

La carga de enfermedad en España: resultados del Estudio de la Carga Global de las Enfermedades 2016

[eng] The global burden of disease (GBD) project measures the health of populations worldwide on an annual basis, and results are available by country. We used the estimates of the GBD to summarise the state of health in Spain in 2016 and report trends in mortality and morbidity from 1990 to 2016. MATERIAL AND METHODS: GBD 2016 estimated disease burden due to 333 diseases and injuries, and 84 risk factors. The GBD list of causes is hierarchical and includes 3 top level categories, namely: 1) communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases; 2) non-communicable diseases (NCDs), and 3) injuries. Mortality and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), risk factors, and progress towards the sustainable development goals (SDGs) are presented based on the GBD 2016 data in Spain. RESULTS: There were 418,516 deaths in Spain in 2016, from a total population of 46.5 million, and 80.5% of them occurred in those aged 70 years and older. Overall, NCDs were the main cause of death: 388,617 (95% uncertainty interval 374,959-402,486), corresponding to 92.8% of all deaths. They were followed by 3.6% due to injuries with 15,052 (13,902-17,107) deaths, and 3.5% communicable diseases with 14,847 (13,208-16,482) deaths. The 5 leading specific causes of death were ischaemic heart disease (IHD, 14.6% of all deaths), Alzheimer disease and other dementias (13.6%), stroke (7.1%), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (6.9%), and lung cancer (5.0%). Remarkable increases in mortality from 1990 to 2016 were observed in other cancers, lower respiratory infections, chronic kidney disease, and other cardiovascular disease, among others. On the contrary, road injuries moved down from 8th to 32nd position, and diabetes from 6th to 10th. Low back and neck pain became the number one cause of DALYs in Spain in 2016, just surpassing IHD, while Alzheimer disease moved from 9th to 3rd position. The greatest changes in DALYs were observed for road injuries dropping from 4th to 16th position, and congenital disorders from 17th to 35th; conversely, oral disorders rose from 25th to 17th. Overall, smoking is by far the most relevant risk factor in Spain, followed by high blood pressure, high body mass index, alcohol use, and high fasting plasma glucose. Finally, Spain scored 74.3 of 100 points in the SDG index classification in 2016, and the main national drivers of detrimental health in SDGs were alcohol consumption, smoking and child obesity. An increase to 80.3 points is projected in 2030. CONCLUSION: Low back and neck pain was the most important contributor of disability in Spain in 2016. There has seen a remarkable increase in the burden due to Alzheimer disease and other dementias. Tobacco remains the most important health issue to address in Spain.[spa] Antecedentes y objetivo: El estudio de la carga global de las enfermedades, conocido como GBD por sus siglas en inglés (global burden of disease), mide la salud poblacional en todo el mundo de forma anual y sus resultados están disponibles por país. Utilizamos las estimaciones GBD para resumir el estado de salud poblacional en Espana˜ en 2016 y describir las tendencias en morbimortalidad de 1990 a 2016. Material y métodos: GBD 2016 estima la carga debida a 333 enfermedades y lesiones, y a 84 factores de riesgo. La lista de causas de GBD es jerárquica e incluye 3 categorías de nivel superior: 1) enfermedades transmisibles, maternas, neonatales y nutricionales; 2) enfermedades no transmisibles (ENT), y 3) accidentes. Se presentan la mortalidad, los anos ˜ de vida ajustados por discapacidad (AVAD), los factores de riesgo y el progreso hacia los objetivos de desarrollo sostenible (ODS) a partir de los datos de GBD 2016 en Espana. ˜ Resultados: En 2016 en Espana˜ hubo 418.516 muertes, de una población total de 46,5 millones, y el 80,5% de ellas ocurrieron en personas de 70 anos ˜ o más. Las ENT fueron la principal causa de muerte (92,8%), con 388.617 (intervalo de incertidumbre del 95% 374.959–402.486), seguidas de los accidentes (3,6%), con 15.052 (13.902–17.107), y de las enfermedades transmisibles (3,5%), con 14.847 (13.208–16.482) muertes. Las 5 principales causas específicas de muerte fueron la cardiopatía isquémica (CI), con el 14,6% de todas las muertes, la enfermedad de Alzheimer y otras demencias (13,6%), el accidente cerebrovascular (7,1%), la enfermedad pulmonar obstructiva crónica (6,9%) y el cáncer de pulmón (5,0%). Se observaron incrementos notables en la mortalidad de 1990 a 2016 en otros cánceres, infecciones respiratorias del tracto inferior, enfermedad renal crónica y otras enfermedades cardiovasculares, entre otros. Por el contrario, los accidentes de tráfico bajaron del puesto 8 al 32 y la diabetes del 6 al 10. Los dolores de espalda y cervicales se convirtieron en la causa principal de AVAD en Espana˜ en 2016, superando a la CI, mientras que la enfermedad de Alzheimer pasó del puesto 9 al 3. Los mayores cambios en AVAD se observaron para accidentes de tráfico, que cayeron de la posición 4 a la posición 16, y los trastornos congénitos, de la 17 a la 35; por el contrario, los trastornos orales aumentaron, pasando del puesto 25 al 17. En general, fumar es, con mucho, el factor de riesgo más relevante en Espana, ˜ seguido de presión arterial alta, índice de masa corporal alto, consumo de alcohol y glucemia alta en ayunas. Finalmente, Espana˜ obtuvo 74,3 sobre 100 puntos en la clasificación del índice ODS en 2016, y los principales determinantes de salud nacionales relacionados con los ODS fueron el consumo de alcohol, el tabaquismo y la obesidad infantil. Se proyecta un aumento a 80,3 puntos en 2030. Conclusión: Los dolores de espalda y cervical fueron el contribuyente más importante de discapacidad en Espana˜ en 2016. Hubo un aumento notable de la carga poblacional debida a la enfermedad de Alzheimer y otras demencias. El tabaco sigue siendo el riesgo para la salud más importante que debe abordarse en Espan