The Extrapolative Component in Exchange Rate Expectations and the Not-So-Puzzling Interest Parity: The Case of Uruguay

This paper analyses the importance attached to the past behaviour of the exchange rate when forming expectations and tests for the uncovered interest parity hypothesis. Using interest rate dierentials for Uruguay over 1980-2010, we identify a strong and time-varying extrapolative component in exchange rate expectations. Agents attach more importance to the past behaviour of exchange rates the higher the level of in ation is. Yet agents are able to internalise policy announcements and external events that are likely to aect exchange rate fun- damentals. Further, we nd deviations from the uncovered interest parity hy- pothesis. These are lower than those usually reported for developed economies. Also, they tend to be higher for the period of low in ation and freely oating exchange rates. As long as what it takes to predict well is rather simple | i.e. look backwards, follow policy announcements, the interest rate dierential per- forms well. Once the exchange rate determination model becomes more intricate or less familiar to the agents, they tend to fail at predicting exchange rate depre- ciations. These results point to expectational failures as a likely explanation for the `uncovered interest parity puzzle'.Exchange rates, Uncovered interest parity, Expectations, Emerging Economies, Bias, Puzzle

A Framework to Analyze the Impact of Exchange Rate: Uncertainty on Output Decisions

Southern Cone economies exhibit a high record of exchange rate volatility. In this context, rms tend to contract dollar debt, irrespective of their trade orientation, and without available hedging instruments. This exposes them to bankruptcy risk, in the event of large exchange rate movements. This paper provides a framework to analyze the output eect of exchange rate uncertainty in that context, by focusing on the channel uncertainty-output that operates through the nancial strategy of the rm. We nd that increases in exchange rate uncertainty increase the probability of bankruptcy, thus increasing expected marginal bankruptcy costs, and reducing optimal output of a risk-neutral rm. Furthermore, we nd that rms with higher than average liquidity balances will face lower marginal bankruptcy costs, thus producing more than the average rm. The model displays persistence, as any shock to current prots aects future liquidity balances, and so, future output. This framework can easily be extended to explain the response of other rms' decisions to exchange rate uncertainty, such as investment.Exchange rates, Bankruptcy Costs, Production Under Uncertainty

Exchange rate expectations, uncertainty and output in the Southern Cone

In this thesis we investigate the effects of real exchange rate (RER) uncertainty on output in the context of Southern Cone economies. The first chapter provides a framework to analyze the output effects of RER uncertainty when firms contract dollar-debt and no hedging instruments are available, by focusing on the channel uncertainty-output operating through the firms financial strategy. An increase in uncertainty increases the probability of bankruptcy, raising expected marginal bankruptcy costs, and reducing optimal output of a risk-neutral firm. We find the output response to uncertainty shocks to depend on firms' liquidity balances, trade orientation and perceptions about government assistance if large exchange rate movements occur. The second chapter examines empirically RER uncertainty effects on sectoral output for 28 manufacturing sectors in the Southern Cone over 1970-2002. We use alternative uncertainty measures allowing different degrees of sophistication in agents' expectation mechanisms to estimate a supply function. We use instrumental variable techniques to address potential simultaneity problems. Results suggest a negative non-negligible effect of uncertainty on output, threshold effects, and sectoral heterogeneity, explained by trade orientation, the intensity with which sectors trade within Mercosur and by sectoral productivity. The fourth chapter investigates the importance of past exchange rate behaviour when forming expectations and tests for the uncovered interest parity (UIP) hypothesis in Uruguay. Using interest rate differentials over 1980-2010 we identify a strong extrapolative component in expectations, following an inverted-U pattern over time. Agents internalise announcements and shocks that may affect fundamentals. Deviations from UIP are low for high-inflation periods, and highfor low-inflation periods and freely floating regimes. As long as what it takes to predict well is simple (look backwards, follow announcements), interest rate differentials perform well. Once exchange rate determination becomes intricate, agents fail at predicting. This finding remains unchanged when survey data are used for the period 2005-2010

Distribución de la información deportiva en los diarios "AS" y "LÉQUIPE" en el año 1977

No intento realizar un estudio periodístico de la situación actual de la prensa deportiva sino comparar un poco dichas publicaciones - AS y L'EQUIPE - y dejar plasmadas un conjunto de cifras y diagramas de un estudio comparativo realizado. Actualmente en nuestro país hay trabajos parecidos, pero esos estudios están basados en comparaciones de periódicos nacionales (no deportivos); mi intento ha sido más ambicioso pues recogí el periódico deportivo español más representativo - AS -, e igualmente el francés con más auge - L'EQUIPE -, aunque la finalidad del trabajo sea la misma comparar

Asymmetric Price Transmission in Indonesia's Wheat Flour Market

Data indicate that its domestic price in Indonesia has been increasing regardless of movements in the international price of wheat. A test for asymmetric price transmission from international wheat to domestic wheat flour markets is conducted using an error correction model and find the presence of asymmetric price transmission. The upward adjustment in the domestic price of wheat flour is much faster than its adjustment downward when it deviates from long-run equilibrium. Our results are robust to use of disaggregated data as well as to inclusion of additional of control variables such as prices of other inputs. We argue that asymmetric transmission occurs due to market concentration of wheat flour milling. We offer some policy suggestions for correcting these

Analysis of Alfven eigenmode destabilization by energetic particles in Large Helical Device using a Landau-closure model

Energetic particle populations in nuclear fusion experiments can destabilize the Alfven Eigenmodes through inverse Landau damping and couplings with gap modes in the shear Alfven continua. We use the reduced MHD equations to describe the linear evolution of the poloidal flux and the toroidal component of the vorticity in a full 3D system, coupled with equations of density and parallel velocity moments for the energetic particles. We add the Landau damping and resonant destabilization effects using a closure relation. We apply the model to study the Alfven mode stability in the inward-shifted configurations of the Large Helical Device (LHD), performing a parametric analysis of the energetic particle beta(beta(f)) in a range of realistic values, the ratios of the energetic particle thermal/Alfven velocities (V-th/V-A0), the magnetic Lundquist numbers (S) and the toroidal modes (n). The n = 1 and n = 2 TAEs are destabilized, although the n = 3 and n = 4 TAEs are weakly perturbed. The most unstable configurations are associated with the density gradients of energetic particles in the plasma core: the TAEs are destabilized, even for small energetic particle populations, if their thermal velocity is lower than 0.4 times the Alfven velocity. The frequency range of MHD bursts measured in the LHD are 50-70 kHz for the n = 1 and 60-80 kHz for the n = 2 TAE, which is consistent with the model predictions.This material is based on work supported both by the U.S. Department of Energy and the Office of Science, under contract DE-AC05-00OR22725 with UT-Battelle, LLC. The research was sponsored in part by the Ministerio de Economia y Competitividad of Spain under project no. ENE2015-68265-P. We also want to acknowledge the LHD group at NIFS for providing us with the VMEC equilibria, and useful interactions with Y. Todo and M. Osakabe

Analysis of Alfven eigenmode destabilization in ITER using a Landau closure model

Alfvén eigenmodes (AE) can be destabilized during ITER discharges driven by neutral beam injection (NBI) energetic particles (EP) and alpha particles. The aim of the present study is to analyze the AE stability of different ITER operation scenarios considering multiple energetic particle species. We use the reduced magneto-hydrodynamic (MHD) equations to describe the linear evolution of the poloidal flux and the toroidal component of the vorticity in a full 3D system, coupled with equations of density and parallel velocity moments for the EP species including the effect of the acoustic modes. The AEs driven by the NBI EP and alpha particles are stable in the configurations analyzed, only MHD-like modes with large toroidal couplings are unstable, although both can be destabilized if the EP increases above a threshold. The threshold is two times the model value for the NBI EP and alpha particles in the reverse shear (RS) case, leading to the destabilization of Beta induced AE (BAE) near the magnetic axis with a frequency of kHz and toroidal or elliptical AE (TAE/EAE) in the RS region with a frequency of kHz, respectively. On the other hand, the hybrid and steady state configurations show a threshold 3 times larger with respect to the model for the alpha particle and 40 times for the NBI EP, also destabilizing BAE and TAE between the inner and middle plasma region. In addition, a extended analysis of the RS scenario where the of both alpha particles and NBI EP are above the AE threshold, multiple EP damping effects are also identified as well as optimization trends regarding the resonance properties of the alpha particle and NBI EP with the bulk plasma.This material based on work is partially supported both by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science, under Contract DE-AC05-00OR22725 with UT-Battelle, LLC and U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science, Office of Fusion Energy Sciences, using the DIII-D National Fusion Facility, a DOE Office of Science user facility, under Award No. DE-FC02-04ER54698. DIII-D data shown in this paper can be obtained in digital format by following the links at https://fusion.gat.com/global/D3D_DMP. This research was sponsored in part by the Ministerio of Economia y Competitividad of Spain under project no. ENE2015-68265-P. The authors would like to thanks Y. Todo for fruitful discussions

Extrusion and structural build-up of 3D printing cement pastes with fly ash, nanoclays and VMAs

3D printing technology (3DP) has provided new design and structural opportunities for cement-based systems (CBS) in architectural construction. However, there are still some issues related to extrudability and buildability of CBS, which can be overcome by using components for CBS rheology control. In this study, three types of nanoclays, a bentonite (BEN), a sepiolite (SEP) and an attapulgite (ATT), and two viscosity modifying admixtures (VMAs), a poly-acrylamide (VMA1) and a methylcellulose ether (VMA2), were added to a reference cement-fly ash 3D printing paste to evaluate their impact on CBS rheological properties and their implications in extrusion and buildability for 3DP. A polycarboxylate-ether based high range water-reducing admixture (HRWRA) was used to reach a target stiff consistency. Four laboratory tests were used to assess paste rheology, extrusion and structural build-up. Proper and deficient material extrusion limits were defined considering cohesion and initial yield stress. It was found that the combination of VMA2 and SEP increased cohesion, enhancing extrusion and avoiding water drainage and frictional behavior of pastes, producing properly extrudable paste. SEP by itself also improved structural build-up. Besides, samples with NC and VMAs required larger amounts of HRWRA, delaying cement setting and compressive strength gain.The authors acknowledge the financial support provided by the project Print3Dcement (PID2019-106525RB-I00) funded by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation (MCIN), project CALTHED (grant number TED2021-132585B-100) funded by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation (MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033) and the European Union “NextGenerationEU”/PRTR, the Grant for training of Lecturers (FPU-UAH 2019) and the trainee Research Personnel Mobility Grant (Movilidad PIF-UAH 2020) funded by University of Alcala. Also, the authors acknowledge the experimental laboratory help of Yohan Jacquet of Universit´e Bretagne-Sud. The authors also thank the materials’ supply of the company TOLSA GROUP S.A

Rheology characterization of 3D printing mortars with nanoclays and basalt fibers

3D printing has become one of the most innovative technologies for cement-based systems (CBS). However, recent studies have shown some issues related to printability and buildability (water drainage, plugs on extruder die, spreading of first layer, etc). To achieve a proper rheology control of CBS, it is essential to adapt the material fresh state properties (initial shear yield stress and structural build-up). In this study, a reference cement-based mortar with fly ash (25%), a 1:1.5 binder to sand ratio and a 0.38 water to binder ratio was used. A polycarboxilate ether-based superplasticizer was added until a consistency of around 1 kPa, measured with the cone-penetration test, was reached. Then, small amounts of several types of nanoclays (NC) in powder and slurry form (sepiolite, attapulgite and bentonite) and natural fibers were added to modify mortar rheological properties. The aim of the study was to characterize the rheological properties of 3D printing mortar samples with NC and basalt fibers (BF) to understand printability and buildability of this material. Cone-penetration test, flow table test and slump test were used to characterize 3D printing capacities. The cone-penetration test was performed in stirred and left at rest samples to assess shear yield stress before and after material deposition. Nanoclays showed a remarkable capacity to retain water and avoid drainage during extrusion but also to increase fresh state strength of material over time. Besides, they increased shear yield stress over time when left at rest. On the contrary, samples stirred over time did not show any increase of shear yield stress, especially samples with slurry nanoclays. Natural fibers also reduced drainage and enhance printability control regarding to reference mortar. BF also enhanced a performance on stirred sample but showed slightly changes on structural build-up at rest, mainly governed by NC effect.This study was partially funded by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation, project Print3Dcement (grant number PID2019-106525RB-I00); by MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033 and the European Union ‘‘NextGenerationEU”/PRTR, project CALTHED (grant number TED2021-132585B-100), and by the University of Alcalá, Grant for training of Lecturers (FPU-UAH 2019) and the trainee Research Personnel Mobility Grant (Movilidad PIF-UAH 2021). The authors acknowledge the experimental help of Sandipan Kaushik of Queen´s University Belfast (QUb). The authors also thank the materials’ supply of the company TOLSA GROUP S.A