The Substantial Growth of Shadow Banking, Financial Technology and Digital Currency and Their Respective Roles in Shaping the Next Financial Crisis

Based on Goldman Sachs’ model and the state of current affairs, an underlying possibility of a financial crisis occurring in the foreseeable future does exist. This could be due to ongoing trade war and negotiations with different countries, the new policies introduced by political parties and their respective impacts, high amounts of corporate and student debts along with auto loans in the economy, thus indicating signs of excessive leverage and resulting in depressing consumer confidence. International issues such as Brexit, the existing currency and debt crisis with Turkey, and China’s debt bubble could also contribute to the global growth slowdowns. Experts such as Nouriel Roubini, Brunello Rosa, Diego Zuluaga, Arthur Guarino, and many more believe that the macroeconomic variables highlighted above are the probable catalysts of the next crisis. Therefore, this paper discusses two issues, Shadow Banking and Financial Technology, which could potentially imbalance the financial markets but are not well addressed to the stakeholders of the macroeconomy, regarding their causes and implications. Moreover, it chats about how they stemmed from the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) of 2000-2008 and how they pose growing risks to the current monetary system. This paper does not consider or highlight the influences of the global pandemic known as the COVID-19 pandemic

Performance characteristics and reliability assessment of self-excited induction generator for wind power generation

Abstract The paper presents the performance analysis‐based reliability estimation of a self‐excited induction generator (SEIG) using the Monte‐Carlo simulation (MCS) method with data obtained from a self‐excited induction motor operating as a generator. The global acceptance of a SEIG depends on its capability to improve the system's poor voltage regulation and frequency regulation. In the grid‐connected induction generator, the magnetizing current is drawn from the grid, making the grid weak. In contrast, in the SEIG stand‐alone operation, an external capacitor arrangement is implemented to render the reactive power support. This capacitor arrangement is connected across the stator terminals during the stand‐alone configuration of SEIG. The capacitor serves two purposes, which include voltage build‐up and power factor improvement. Therefore, the paper deals with obtaining the minimum capacitor value required for SEIG excitation in isolated mode applications, including stand‐alone wind power generation. The SEIG performance characteristics have been evaluated for different SEIG parameters. The simulation and experimental results are then compared and found satisfactory. Then, SEIG reliability is estimated considering the MCS method utilizing SEIG excitation's failure and success rates during experimental work in the laboratory. Finally, the SEIG reliability evaluation is performed considering different wind speeds

The Hybrid ROC (HROC) Curve and its Divergence Measures for Binary Classification

In assessing the performance of a diagnostic test, the widely used classification technique is the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) Curve. The Binormal model is commonly used when the test scores in the diseased and healthy populations follow Normal Distribution. It is possible that in real applications the two distributions are different but having a continuous density function. In this paper we considered a model in which healthy and diseased populations follow half normal and exponential distributions respectively, hence named it as the Hybrid ROC (HROC) Curve. The properties and Area under the curve (AUC) expressions were derived. Further, to measure the distance between the defined distributions, a popular divergence measure namely Kullback Leibler Divergence (KLD) has been used. Simulation studies were conducted to study the functional behavior of Hybrid ROC curve and to show the importance of KLD in classification

Shortest Path Distance in Manhattan Poisson Line Cox Process

While the Euclidean distance characteristics of the Poisson line Cox process (PLCP) have been investigated in the literature, the analytical characterization of the path distances is still an open problem. In this paper, we solve this problem for the stationary Manhattan Poisson line Cox process (MPLCP), which is a variant of the PLCP. Specifically, we derive the exact cumulative distribution function (CDF) for the length of the shortest path to the nearest point of the MPLCP in the sense of path distance measured from two reference points: (i) the typical intersection of the Manhattan Poisson line process (MPLP), and (ii) the typical point of the MPLCP. We also discuss the application of these results in infrastructure planning, wireless communication, and transportation networks

A Demand Based Load Balanced Service Replication Model

Cloud computing allows service users and providers to access the applications, logical resources and files on any computer with ease. A cloud service has three distinct characteristics that differentiate it from traditional hosting. It is sold on demand, typically by the minute or the hour; it is elastic. It is a way to increase capacity or add capabilities on the fly without investing in new infrastructure, training new personnel, or licensing new software. It not only promises reliable services delivered through next-generation data centers that are built on compute and storage virtualization technologies but also addresses the key issues such as scalability, reliability, fault tolerance and file load balancing. The one way to achieve this is through service replication across different machines coupled with load balancing. Though replication potentially improves fault tolerance, it leads to the problem of ensuring consistency of replicas when certain service is updated or modified. However, fewer replicas also decrease concurrency and the level of service availability. A balanced synchronization between replication mechanism and consistency not only ensures highly reliable and fault tolerant system but also improves system performance significantly. This paper presents a load balancing based service replication model that creates a replica on other servers on the basis of number of service accesses. The simulation results indicate that the proposed model reduces the number of messages exchanged for service replication by 25-55% thus improving the overall system performance significantly. Also in case of CPU load based file replication, it is observed that file access time reduces by 5.56%-7.65%