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Level and length of cyclic solar activity during the Maunder minimum as deduced from the active day statistics
The Maunder minimum (MM) of greatly reduced solar activity took place in
1645-1715, but the exact level of sunspot activity is uncertain as based, to a
large extent, on historical generic statements of the absence of spots on the
Sun. Here we aim, using a conservative approach, to assess the level and length
of solar cycle during the Maunder minimum, on the basis of direct historical
records by astronomers of that time. A database of the active and inactive days
(days with and without recorded sunspots on the solar disc respectively) is
constructed for three models of different levels of conservatism (loose ML,
optimum MO and strict MS models) regarding generic no-spot records. We have
used the active day fraction to estimate the group sunspot number during the
MM. A clear cyclic variability is found throughout the MM with peaks at around
1655--1657, 1675, 1684 and 1705, and possibly 1666, with the active day
fraction not exceeding 0.2, 0.3 or 0.4 during the core MM, for the three
models. Estimated sunspot numbers are found very low in accordance with a grand
minimum of solar activity.
We have found, for the core MM (1650-1700), that: (1) A large fraction of
no-spot records, corresponding to the solar meridian observations, may be
unreliable in the conventional database. (2) The active day fraction remained
low (below 0.3-0.4) throughout the MM, indicating the low level of sunspot
activity. (3) The solar cycle appears clearly during the core MM. (4) The
length of the solar cycle during the core MM appears years, but there
is an uncertainty in that. (5) The magnitude of the sunspot cycle during MM is
assessed to be below 5-10 in sunspot numbers;
A hypothesis of the high solar cycles during the MM is not confirmed.Comment: Accepted to Astron. Astrophy
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