Using athletes' world rankings to assess countries' performance

There is a need for fair measures of country sport performance that include athletes who do not win medals.Purpose:To develop a measure of country performance based on athlete ranks in the sport of swimming.Methods:Annual top-150 ranks in Olympic pool-swimming events were downloaded for 1990 through 2011. For each athlete of a given rank, a score representing the athlete’s performance potential was estimated as the proportion of athletes of that rank who ever achieved top rank. A country’s scores were calculated by summing its athletes’ scores over all 32 events. Reliability and convergent validity were assessed via year-to-year correlations and correlations with medal counts at major competitions. The method was also applied to ranks at the 2012 Olympics to evaluate countries’ swimming performance.Results:The performance score of an athlete of a given rank was closely approximated by 1/rank. This simpler score has 1 practical interpretation: An athlete ranked 7th (for example) has a chance of 1/7 of ever achieving top rank; for purposes of evaluating country performance, 7 such athletes are equivalent to 1 athlete of the top rank. Country scores obtained by summing 1/rank of the country’s athletes had high reliability and validity. This approach produced scores for 168 countries at the Olympics, whereas only 17 countries won medals.Conclusions:The authors used the sport of swimming to develop a fair and inclusive measure representing a country’s performance potential. This measure should be suitable for assessing countries in any sports with world rankings or with athletes at major competitions.</jats:sec

The performance effect of centralizing a nation's elite swim program

Many national sporting organizations recruit talented athletes to well-resourced centralized training squads to improve their performance.Purpose: To develop a method to monitor performance progression of swimming squads and to use this method to assess the progression of New Zealand’s centralized elite swimming squad.Methods: Best annual long-course competition times of all New Zealand swimmers with at least 3 y of performances in an event between 2002 and 2013 were downloaded from takeyourmarks.com (~281,000 times from ~8500 swimmers). A mixed linear model accounting for event, age, club, year, and elite-squad membership produced estimates of mean annual performance for 175 swim clubs and mean estimates of the deviation of swimmers’ performances from their individual quadratic trajectories after they joined the elite squad. Effects were evaluated using magnitude-based inferences, with a smallest important improvement in swim time of –0.24%.Results: Before 2009, effects of elite-squad membership were mostly unclear and trivial to small in magnitude. Thereafter, both sexes showed clear additional performance enhancements, increasing from large in 2009 (males –1.4% ± 0.8%, females –1.5% ± 0.8%; mean ± 90% confidence limits) to extremely large in 2013 (males –6.8% ± 1.7%, females –9.8% ± 2.9%). Some clubs also showed clear performance trends during the 11-y period.Conclusions: Our method of quantifying deviations from individual trends in competition performance with a mixed model showed that Swimming New Zealand’s centralization strategy took several years to produce substantial performance effects. The method may also be useful for evaluating performance-enhancement strategies introduced at national or club level in other sports.</jats:sec

Predicting a nation's Olympic-qualifying swimmers

Talent identification and development typically involve allocation of resources toward athletes selected on the basis of early-career performance.Purpose:To compare 4 methods for early-career selection of Australia’s 2012 Olympic-qualifying swimmers.Methods:Performance times from 5738 Australian swimmers in individual Olympic events at 101 competitions from 2000 to 2012 were analyzed as percentages of world-record times using 4 methods that retrospectively simulated early selection of swimmers into a talent-development squad. For all methods, squad-selection thresholds were set to include 90% of Olympic qualifiers. One method used each swimmer’s given-year performance for selection, while the others predicted each swimmer’s 2012 performance. The predictive methods were regression and neural-network modeling using given-year performance and age and quadratic trajectories derived using mixed modeling of each swimmer’s annual best career performances up to the given year. All methods were applied to swimmers in 2007 and repeated for each subsequent year through 2011.Results:The regression model produced squad sizes of 562, 552, 188, 140, and 93 for the years 2007 through 2011. Corresponding proportions of the squads consisting of Olympic qualifiers were 11%, 11%, 32%, 43%, and 66%. Neural-network modeling produced similar outcomes, but the other methods were less effective. Swimming Australia’s actual squads ranged from 91 to 67 swimmers but included only 50−74% of Olympic qualifiers.Conclusions:Large talent-development squads are required to include most eventual Olympic qualifiers. Criteria additional to age and performance are needed to improve early selection of swimmers to talent-development squads.</jats:sec

Effects of supplementing with an 18% carbohydrate-hydrogel drink versus a placebo during whole-body exercise in -5 °C with elite cross-country ski athletes: a crossover study

BACKGROUND: Whilst the ergogenic effects of carbohydrate intake during prolonged exercise are well-documented, few investigations have studied the effects of carbohydrate ingestion during cross-country skiing, a mode of exercise that presents unique metabolic demands on athletes due to the combined use of large upper- and lower-body muscle masses. Moreover, no previous studies have investigated exogenous carbohydrate oxidation rates during cross-country skiing. The current study investigated the effects of a 13C-enriched 18% multiple-transportable carbohydrate solution (1:0.8 maltodextrin:fructose) with additional gelling polysaccharides (CHO-HG) on substrate utilization and gastrointestinal symptoms during prolonged cross-country skiing exercise in the cold, and subsequent double-poling time-trial performance in ~ 20 °C. METHODS: Twelve elite cross-country ski athletes (6 females, 6 males) performed 120-min of submaximal roller-skiing (69.3 ± 2.9% of [Formula: see text]O2peak) in -5 °C while receiving either 2.2 g CHO-HG·min- 1 or a non-caloric placebo administered in a double-blind, randomized manner. Whole-body substrate utilization and exogenous carbohydrate oxidation was calculated for the last 60 min of the submaximal exercise. The maximal time-trial (2000 m for females, 2400 m for males) immediately followed the 120-min submaximal bout. Repeated-measures ANOVAs with univariate follow-ups were conducted, as well as independent and paired t-tests, and significance was set at P &lt; 0.05. Data are presented as mean ± SD. RESULTS: Exogenous carbohydrate oxidation contributed 27.6 ± 6.6% to the total energy yield with CHO-HG and the peak exogenous carbohydrate oxidation rate reached 1.33 ± 0.27 g·min- 1. Compared to placebo, fat oxidation decreased by 9.5 ± 4.8% with CHO-HG, total carbohydrate oxidation increased by 9.5 ± 4.8% and endogenous carbohydrate utilization decreased by 18.1 ± 6.4% (all P &lt; 0.05). No severe gastrointestinal symptoms were reported in either trial and euhydration was maintained in both trials. Time-trial performance (8.4 ± 0.4 min) was not improved following CHO-HG compared to placebo (- 0.8 ± 3.5 s; 95% confidence interval - 3.0 to 1.5 s; P = 0.46). No sex differences were identified in substrate utilization or relative performance. CONCLUSIONS: Ingestion of an 18% multiple-transportable carbohydrate solution with gelling polysaccharides was found to be well-tolerated during 120 min of submaximal whole-body exercise, but did not improve subsequent maximal double-poling performance